Transcript OVERVIEW: DEMAND FOR RETAIL AND LOCAL SERVICES …

UST/PDD 610
URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
MARKET ANALYSIS
Lecture #10
extra slides FYI
DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR RETAIL
AND LOCAL SERVICES SPACE
SELECTED DATA SOURCES (Cont.)
• U.S. DEP'T COMMERCE, CENSUS OF RETAIL
TRADE AND CENSUS OF SERVICE INDUSTRIES
http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/data/pdf/08Q2.pdf
• EVERY 5 YEARS, LATEST 1997, OUT 1999
– SALES, ESTABLISHMENTS, AND EMPLOYEE
DATA BY 2-4 DIGIT SIC SIC code scheme now
replaced by new configuration
– STATE, MSA, COUNTY, AND CITIES WITH OVER
350 ESTABLISHMENTS
SELECTED DATA SOURCES (Cont.)
•
U.S. DEP'T COMMERCE, SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2008/10%20October/1008_gdpecon.pdf
• FOR EVERY MONTH, AVAILABLE 2-3 MONTHS LATER
– CONSUMER EXPENDITURES AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC
DATA FOR THE U.S. ONLY
SELECTED DATA SOURCES (Cont.)
• BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
SURVEY
• EVERY YEAR, SAMPLE, OUT ABOUT 1 YEAR
LATER
– FOR U.S., CONSUMER EXPENDITURES BY INCOME AND
OTHER STRATA
SELECTED DATA SOURCES (Cont.)
• SALES AND MARKETING MANAGEMENT
– SEVERAL TIMES PER YEAR, MONTHS LATER
– DISPOSABLE INCOME DATA FOR COUNTIES
AND SELECTED CITIES
• PRIVATE DATA SERVICES
– ESRI BUSINESS INFORMATION SERVICES
– WOODS AND POOLE ECONOMICS
RESEARCHING PARCEL RECORDS
WITH COMPUTERIZED DATA SETS
• COUNTY AUDITOR KEEPS PROPERTY RECORDS
AND PROPERTY TAX MAPS
• EACH PARCEL HAS A UNIQUE PARCEL NUMBER,
SOME PARCELS MAY BE "LINKED" TO OTHERS
THROUGH REFERENCE PARCELS
• PROPERTY TAX RECORDS INCLUDE PERTINENT
PARCEL CHARACTERISTICS, ASSESSED
VALUATION, MARKET VALUE
RESEARCHING PARCEL RECORDS
WITH COMPUTERIZED DATA SETS
(Cont.)
• COUNTY RECORDERS OFFICE HAS TITLE
TRANSFER, DEEDS, MORTGAGES AND
LIENS
• NODIS AT CUA HAS AUDITOR TAPES OF
ALL PARCELS IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
• www.cuyahogacounty.us
RETAIL SUPPLY DATA GATHERING
STRATEGIES
• EXISTING SPACE
– MARKET VALUE OF PROPERTIES REFLECTS
CAPITALIZATION OF MARKET RENTS-RESEARCH PROPERTY SALES
– WINDSHIELD SURVEY
– SURVEY LEASING AGENTS OR PROPERTY
OWNERS
• RESEARCH STUDY APPROACH
• PROSPECTIVE TENANT APPROACH
RETAIL SUPPLY DATA GATHERING
STRATEGIES (Cont.)
• PROPOSED SPACE
– GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING OFFICE TO
IDENTIFY PROJECTS IN PIPELINE
– FOLLOW-UP WITH CALLS TO DEVELOPERS
– ASSIGN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ON TIMING
AND SPACE FOR PROPOSED PROJECT TO COME
ON LINE: USE SECURED FINANCING AS MAIN
CRITERIA
USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION FOR
ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVE SUPPLY
• STATISTICAL APPROACH TO DETERMINING WHICH
ASPECTS OF COMPETITIVE PROPERTIES ARE
IMPORTANT
• REQUIRES A DATA SET OF AT LEAST 20 PROPERTIES OF
SAME TYPE. PREFERABLY MORE LIKE 50-100
PROPERTIES.
• DATA MUST BE COLLECTED CONSISTENTLY FOR EACH
PROPERTY
• THEORY(S) SHOULD BE FORMULATED TO DETERMINE
WHICH VARIABLES TO TEST
USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION (Cont.)
• REGRESSION SEEKS TO ESTIMATE THE DEPENDENT
VARIABLE (Y) BY INCLUDING SEVERAL
INDEPENDENT OR EXPLANATORY VARIABLES (X1,
X2, ETC)
• REGRESSION CAN BE USED TO ESTIMATE
ATTAINABLE RENTS, SALES PRICE, STORE SALES,
AND VACANCY
HOW TO INTERPRET REGRESSION
RESULTS
• THE REGRESSION EQUATION TAKES THE
FOLLOWING GENERAL FORM:
• Y =
0 + X11 + X22 + ... XNN + E
• THE ESTIMATOR FOR AN EXPLANATORY VARIABLE
IS THE MARGINAL EFFECT A UNIT CHANGE IN X
WOULD HAVE ON A UNIT OF Y, HOLDING ALL ELSE
CONSTANT
• IF RESULTS ARE STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AND
CONSISTENT WITH THEORY, THEN A
RELATIONSHIP IS PRESENT
HOW TO INTERPRET REGRESSION
RESULTS (Cont)
• TO DETERMINE HOW THE SUBJECT PROPERTY
WOULD PERFORM, THE REGRESSION EQUATION
CAN BE USED TO PREDICT AN OUTCOME FOR A
TYPICAL PROPERTY
• ALTHOUGH REGRESSION IS POTENTIALLY VERY
HELPFUL IN REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS, THE
STATISTICAL ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING IT ARE
COMPLEX. CONSULT A STATISTICIAN TO MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE TAKEN THE PROPER STEPS AND
PRECAUTIONS