Transcript Document

WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM-6204: Hydrologic Statistics
Syllabus
Akm Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
October, 2007
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics
October 2007 Semester
Instructor: A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Contact: Room No. 306
Tel. 9665650-80, Ext. 7923 (Off.)
Email: [email protected]
Web: http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Goals:

This course will provide an introduction to
stochastic methods used in hydrology. The
level of understanding should, upon completion
of the course, be sufficient to understand and
appreciate the important issues on stochastic
hydrology where statistical methods are used
in prediction and interpretation of hydrologic
processes.
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Topics in Course Content:
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Characteristics of hydrologic data;
Probability and statistics;
Probabilistic analysis;
Multiple regression and correlation;
Regional analysis;
Analysis of hydrologic time series;
Sequential generation of hydrologic information;
Stochastic models;
Statistical decisions.
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Topics to be covered
- by Saiful Islam
1.
2.
3.
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Characteristics of hydrologic data
Probability and statistics
Probabilistic analysis
Multiple regression and correlation
Regional analysis
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Topics in details
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1. Characteristics of Hydrologic data
 Review
of Probability and statistics
Population and Sample
 Mean, Median and Mode
 Range, Standard Deviations, Skew ness
 Histogram, Probability and total probability
theorem
 Hypothesis testing, goodness of fit tests
 Marginal and derived probability distribution
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 Introduction
to Hydrologic statistics
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
(Contd..)
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2. Probability Distributions and Their Applications
 Discrete
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Distributions
Binomial distribution
Poisson distribution
 Continuous
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Distributions
Normal distribution
Lognormal distribution
Gamma distribution
Pearson Type III distribution
Gumbel’s Extremal distribution
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
(Contd..)
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3. Extreme Value theory and Frequency Analysis
 Introduction
to EVT
 Introduction to Frequency Analysis
 Analytical Frequency Analysis
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Normal and Lognormal Distributions
Extreme Value Distributions
Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
 Confidence
Intervals
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
(Contd..)
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4. Multiple regression and correlations
 Correlation
and Regression
Correlation
 Partial correlation
 Simple Linear Regression
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 Multiple
Linear Regression
 Regression Diagnostics
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
(Contd..)
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5. Regional Analysis
 Index-floor
method
 Multiple regression
 Regionalize characteristics of frequency
distribution
 Reliability of a regeneration
 Regionalization of flood stages
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Grading
Class Attendance
Homework
Midterm Exam
Final Exam
10%
20%
30%
40%
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Reference Books
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Haan C.T. (1977) Statistical Methods in Hydrology, The
Iowa State University Press, Ames.
Warren Viessman and Gary Lewis (2003) Introduction
to Hydrology, Prentice Hall.
Lecture Notes on Statistics and Probability for Master
in Risk Analysis and Management, Prepared by- Dr. M.
Shahjahan Mondal
In addition, papers in different relevant journals (e.g.
Water Resources Research, Journal of Hydrologic
Engineering, Hydrological Science Journal etc.) would
be required.
WFM 6204: Hydrologic Statistics © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Book for regional analysis topic