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Statistics www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Probability Line Calculating Simple Probability 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr. Lafferty 1 Starter Questions www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Expand and simplify 4( 3 + 2x) – 3(x + 1) 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr.Lafferty Maths Dept Probability www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Learning Intention 1. To understand probability in terms of the number line. Success Criteria 1. Understand the probability line. 2. Calculate simply probabilities. 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e 0 Impossible Seeing a butterfly In July 16-Jul-15 0.5 Not very likely School Holidays Evens Winning the Lottery Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept 1 Very likely Baby Born A Boy Certain Go back in time Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e 0 Impossible It will Snow in winter 16-Jul-15 0.5 Not very likely Evens Homework Everyone getting Every week 100 % in test Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept 1 Very likely Certain Toss a coin Going without That land Food Heads for a year. Probability www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Now try Ex Intro. Ch18 (page 214) 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr. Lafferty Maths Dept. Starter Questions National 4 EF 1.3e www.mathsrevision.com Q1. Calculate 7 – 5 x 2 Q2. Calculate 2 1 5 2 Q3. Is this triangle right angled ? 8 Explain 9 5 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr.Lafferty Maths Dept Probability www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Learning Intention 1. To understand probability calculate simple probabilities. 16-Jul-15 Success Criteria 1. Calculate simply probabilities. Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept Probability www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e We can normally attach a value to the probability of an event happening. To work out a probability number of outcomes P(A) = Total number of possible outcomes Probability is ALWAYS in the range 0 to 1 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept Probability Number Likelihood Line National 4 EF 1.3e www.mathsrevision.com 1 0 2 0.1 Impossible 3 0.2 4 0.3 5 0.4 6 0.5 0.6 7 0.7 8 0.8 Evens P= Q. What is the chance of picking a number that is even ?P(E) = Q. What is the chance of picking the number 1 ? Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept 1 Certain Q. What is the chance of picking a number between 1 – 8 ? 16-Jul-15 0.9 P(1) = 8 =1 8 4 = 0.5 8 1 = 0.125 8 Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e 52 cards in a pack of cards 0 0.1 Impossible 0.2 0.3 Not very likely 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Evens 0.8 Very likely Q. What is the chance of picking a red card ? P (Red) = Q. What is the chance of picking a diamond ? P (D) = Q. What is the chance of picking ace ? P (Ace) = 4 52 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept 0.9 1 Certain 26 52 = 0.5 13 = 0.25 52 = 0.08 Probability www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e Now try Ex 1 Ch18 (page 215) 16-Jul-15 Created by Mr. Lafferty Maths Dept.