Transcript of the Inspection Model - q

Work package 2
Modeling the inspection process
Q-Detect/EPPO workshop on 19th February 2013
Wil Hennen
WP2 Modeling the inspection process
Tools (output)
 Inspection Model
mimics inspection process
goal: compare instruments; evaluate inspection process and sampling; learning
 Trap models:

1.
Pine processionary moth in forest
2.
Thrips palmi in glass house
Simulation model remote sensing monitoring
The Inspection Model : inspection process
Sampling
Queue
Queue
Queue
Inspection Model : support decision to buy
Compare detection instruments
(cost-effectiveness)
Cost
+100€/lot
Time
+20 min.
Detection Quality
+10%
Which instrument is prefered?
when evaluating at:
inspection capacity, (export)damage, loss of
product quality, inspection/laboratory costs, etc.
Inspection Model : optimalisation inspection
Evaluate the inspection process
Sample size
Risk based inspection (reduced checks; pathways)
Additional inspection capacity
1st line confirmation or not
Inspection Model : case study sample size
Sample
size
Detected
False
positive
LARGE
SMALL
Sensitivity
Specificity
Inspect
costs
Avoided
damage
Storage
costs
Inspection Model : risk based inspection
Reduced checks
Sample++
Inspection Model : risk based inspection
Reduced checks
Comparison all|split
Is this cost-effective?
(∆inspection costs, ∆instrument costs,
∆avoided damage, ∆laboratory costs)
Chance undetected in
low-risk pathway?
Sample++
Reduced checks allowed?
Inspection Model : learning tool for inspectors
Learn the inspection process
By Game Simulation
Learn effect of sample size (statistics)
ISPM 31 (methodologies for sampling)
Distinguish more pathways (risk based)
Implementing instruments (where, which)
The Inspection Model : demo (animation)
Inspection Model : remarks on application
 Complex model requires training (concepts, methods)
 Is not a detection instrument! (not for inspectors)
 Intended for NPPO’s:
- decision to buy/apply instrument
- optimising inspection process
- training inspection concepts in workshops
 Trap Models less complex, not intended for inspectors
Trap Model for thrips palmi
Questions
 Identify the best location for the traps (low insect density)
 Simulate and compare different trap efficiency (and lures)
 Reduce chemicals (investigate use of traps as alternative)
Trap Model : concepts
Trap Model for thrips palmi
Demonstration
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips.html
Trap Model for pine processionary moth
Goals
 Probability to catch by trapping
 Number of traps for cost-effective (sampling)
 (Economic) effects of different positions
 Sensitivity of the trapping instrument
Trap Model for pine processionary moth
Demonstration
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessionaryMoth.html
Remote Sensing monitoring
Detection of pest from satellite
Goal
 Detection efficiency of disease by satellite remote sensing
techniques
Remote Sensing monitoring
Remote Sensing monitoring
Remote Sensing monitoring
Demonstration
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.html
More information...
Wednesday 20th February
Possibility of further exploration of modeling the inspection process
Options:
-
“Play around” with Trap Models and Remote Sensing model
-
Background information models, concepts and methods
-
Applications (case studies) of the Inspection Model
End of presentation
Any questions......?
WP2 Modeling the inspection process
Aims
 Integration by modeling the inspection process
 Compare the costs and benefits of detection
methods/instruments
 Explore allocation of resources for a method in an optimal
way regarding cost-effectiveness
 Simulating sampling procedures (e.g. reduced checks)
while maintaining acceptable levels of risk (ISPM based)
 Support search of best location of traps and compare trap
efficiency
Inspection Models : demonstration
 Trap model for thrips palmi
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips.html
 Trap Model for pine processionary moth
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessionaryMoth.html
 Remote Sensing monitoring
http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.html