Transcript scientists

Best Practices in Near-Term Eruption Forecasting
Ettore Majorana foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture
Erice, Italy
11-15 September 2011
COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS
Presented by HUGO YEPES
In cooperation with Pablo Palación al¡nd the Volcanology team
INSTITUTO GEOFISICO – EPN
SERVICO NACIONAL DE SISMOLOGIA Y VULCANOLOGIA – SENASV
[email protected]
www.igepn.edu.ec
OUTLINE
• Introductory premises
• Some definitions about the message and recipients of warnings
• Strong and weak communication connections: Tungurahua Volcano
case study
• The Seismic Activity Index as a medium to short term forecaster
• The Seismo-Acoustic Index (BRUN or RUNTUN index) as a short term
warning
INTRODUCTORY PREMISES
• Scientists should have a thorough understanding of the volcano
and of what they know and what they don’t. Uncertainties should
be communicated.
• In order to communicate volcanic hazards, forecasts, warnings,
alerts, it is absolutely important to have an acceptable knowledge of
the key actors (stakeholders?) taking part in a potentially
dangerous eruption. Adjustments in the message are needed for
different actors.
• Alert/crisis communications should be delivered opportunely and
taking into careful how the massage will be delivered to different
actors.
SOME NON-SCIENTIFIC DEFINITIONS FOR SCIENTISTS
• FORECAST: a prediction or estimate of future events
• WARNING: a statement or event that indicates a possible or impending danger
---------------------------------• ACTOR: a participant in an action or process
• SOCIAL ACTOR: a collective body, with an identity and values, whose members
are modifiers of their circumstances, generators of action strategies in order to
transform society
• Social actors are characterized by the recognition of who makes what, how,
with what objective, with whom and with what results.
• Who are they? –community organizations, local councils, NGOs, entrepreneurs,
real stators, financial sectors, unions…… scientists?
• STAKEHOLDER: a person with an interest or concern in something; a type of
organization or system in which all the members or participants are seen as
having an interest in its success
Modified from Alain Touraine (1984), "Le retour de l'acteur, essai de sociologie", éd. Fayard, Paris, France.
KEY ACTORS and other players in the communication process
VOLCANO
POPULATION
AT RISK
DECISION
MAKERS
MEDIA
SCIENTISTS
Communicating VOLCANIC UNREST (forecasts)
VOLCANO
POPULATION
AT RISK
DECISION
MAKERS
GENERAL
PUBLIC
MEDIA
SCIENTISTS
OTHER
CIENTISTS
NOTORIOUS VOLCANIC UNREST (warnings)
HIGHER
LEVELS
VOLCANO
POPULATION
POPULATION
AT RISK
AT RISK
DECISION
MAKERS
GENERAL
PUBLIC
MEDIA
SCIENTISTS
OTHER
CIENTISTS
ACTORS (those who stay)
HIGHER
LEVELS
WEAK TIES
VOLCANO
DECISION
MAKERS
PEOPLE AT
RISK
STRONG BONDS
GENERAL
PUBLIC
MEDIA
SCIENTISTS
OTHER
CIENTISTS
GOOD PRACTICE:
TUNGURAHUA VOLCANO
Summit
5023 m
• A long term relationship among social actors
has been established
West flank
• Social actors are working together to modifysettlements
one circumstance: the volcanic risk in their
community
• Decision makers have changed throughout
time. There is aBaños
new risk management system.
1900 m rely on the local
Authorities heavily
organization for acting upon warnings.
The 2003-2005 DIPECHO project was fundamental
for the direct involvement of scientists qith the communities.
OVT personnel working with local
authorities community leaders and
community members
Community hazard map
Scientific hazard map
Rojo Intenso :
Zona de peligro mayor
Rojo medio :
zona de peligro moderado
Rojo pálido:
zona de peligro menor
THE SEISMIC ACTIVITY INDEX AS A MEDIUM TO SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HIGHER
LEVELS
VOLCANO
DECISION
MAKERS
GENERAL
PUBLIC
PEOPLE
MEDIA
SCIENTISTS
OTHER
CIENTISTS
Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes:
The Seismic Activity Index
• Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the general
public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of Tungurahua
Volcano
• The Seismic Activity Index SAI:
– Is a medium to short term forecaster
– Uses short period, analog seismometers
– Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and internal
seismic activity are known.
– Compares the “true” seismic energy released by the volcano day by day with
the maximum observed seismic energy during the reference period. A
weighting processes includes the expert criteria
– Includes the comparison of the daily counts of each type of pre-identified
events with the reference period in order to identify pressurization
– Daily values (DI) are treated statistically to obtain the Seismic Activity Index
– Levels of the SAI are established using the observation period and is related to
physical changes inside the volcano
– Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models (ARIMA)
– Intervals of confidence are computed to asses the uncertainties of the
forecast.
Daily Activity Index
Seismic Activity Index
Daily Activity Index:
the construction period
Seismic Activity Index:
the construction period
Seismic Activity Index:
the ratification period
Seismic Activity Index:
problems
Seismic Activity Index:
the communication tool
Seismic Activity Index:
the communication tool
Seismic Activity Index:
the communication tool
Seismic Activity Index:
the communication tool
Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes:
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)
• Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the
general public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of
Tungurahua Volcano
• The Seismic-Acoustic Index BRUN:
– Is a short term forecaster
– Uses one BB digital seismometer
– Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and
internal seismic activity are known.
– Compares the first three eruptions at Tungurahua that generated
pyroclastic flows (14.07.2006; 16.08.2005; 06.02.2008) with minute by
minute observed seismic and acoustic energy at BRUN
– Is the result of a convolution that allow to find the trend using the
values of the last 10 minutes.
– Levels of the BRUN Index are established using the observation made
during the pfs: 10% (yellow), 60% (orange) and 90% (red)
– Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models
(ARIMA)
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)
Vulcanian eruption
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index):
the communication tool
The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index):
the communication tool complements
THANK YOU