Transcript here - Henry Farrell

The Internet and Democracy
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In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people
predicted that the Internet was going to spread
democracy around the world.
• Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla and
North Korea”
• Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on
Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall”
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Again, these optimistic visions of the future have
failed to materialize.
But the Internet, together with related
technologies (text messaging etc) has changed
the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces
operate.
To understand why – need to look at what these
technologies involve.
Naïve beginnings
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First flush of enthusiasm about the
Internet.
Belief that it would spread democratic
values and topple tyrants
(Cyberlibertarianism).
True not only in developed world but even
more so in developing world.
The Internet as a force for globalization.
• Spreading Western values
• Spreading the truth/resisting censorship
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Of course, things weren’t as
straightforward for reasons we have
already discussed …
Different technologies have
different consequences
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Bringing together some of the themes that
we have discussed in class.
Internet and related technologies provide
space for different kinds of media.
These media in turn are more or less
conducive to different kinds of content.
And this affects how they reshape the
landscape for pro- and anti- democracy
forces.
Two ways of promoting democracy
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We should distinguish between two ways
in which the Internet and related
technologies can promote democracy.
• Through providing help to pro-democracy
activists in protests and other actions aimed at
overturning regimes.
• Through promoting civil society which may
indirectly lead to more democracy in the long
run.
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And also should be aware that antidemocratic forces can use the Internet
too.
• Weakening of civil society in Russia and
elsewhere.
Different tools for different
purposes
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Various media (all based on the Internet
or network communication) may have
highly diverse consequences.
In particular – imply different relationships
between the sender of a
message/webpage/TV spot and the
recipients.
We can distinguish between one-to-one
forms of communication, one-to-many
forms of communication, and many-tomany forms of communication.
One to One Communication
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Traditional forms of direct communication,
in which one person is communicating
with another (or perhaps with a very small
number of people).
Traditional forms have included letters,
face-to-face conversations etc.
Newer forms include much email (personal
email etc).
But also much instant text messaging.
Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such
as Twitter.
One-to-many
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Involves a single (or small number) of
sources, and many possible recipients.
Traditional model of TV broadcasting and
newspaper publishing.
But also applies to many forms of content
on the Internet.
Standard web pages (of organizations etc)
– designed to be read by many people,
but not modified by them.
General email blasts (such as much of
what MoveOn does in the US)
Many-to-Many
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Traditionally, it has been hard to have
large distributed conversations.
But blogs provide one example of how this
is changing.
• A vast conversation taking place among large
numbers of people – but organized.
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Also, other new technologies, including
social networking sites (Facebook etc)
have important many-to-many aspects.
Technologies and communication
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Some technologies are better equipped to
provide certain kinds of communication and less
well equipped to provide others.
• Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many
communication. Not so good for many-to-many.
• Text messages – like email.
• Web pages – good for one to many communication.
• Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and
(sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill
for one-to-one communication.
• YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication,
and also has some many-to-many applications.
Technologies and content
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This goes together with differences in the
kinds of content that different media favor.
• Instant messages – short punchy messages,
often in jargon. Encourages quick back-andforth.
• Email – somewhat longer text based messages
(typically less quick than text messages).
• Blogs – text based communication over period
of hours.
• YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and
upload.
Media and political action
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Combination of (a) the nature of the
medium (one to many, one to one etc),
and the kinds of content it favors have
implications for political action.
Some media are well suited to rapid
organizing.
Others to slower forms of communication
over days, weeks and perhaps longer.
Thus – we may expect different electronic
media to have very different
consequences for pro- and antidemocratic forces.
Instant text messaging/SMS
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Short simple messages are well suited to the
organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that
converge on a particular place for a particular
purpose.
Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of
changing circumstances (changed meeting place
etc).
Thus well suited to the organization of
spontaneous demonstrations and other similar
forms of action.
One to many form of SMSing can also be used by
state or protestors to organize concerted action.
Blogs
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Allow for more complex forms of
discussion – and are speedier than
traditional mass communication.
But not well suited to mobilization on the
street.
May even serve as a distraction – some
democratic activists complain about
bloggers thinking they can spur the
revolution from their bedroom (they
can’t).
Audiovisual services (YouTube etc)
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Slower than other forms of electronic
communication and not well suited at all
to quick back-and-forths.
Preparing clips takes time and resources.
However, may have a profound impact on
people’s willingness to mobilize.
Video can carry a much more visceral
punch.
What does this suggest …
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(1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such
as SMS/email can help organize broad political
action.
• Good at disseminating short pieces of information
rapidly.
• However only good at simple forms of communication –
not long run movement building.
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(2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as
blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and
substitute in part for a free press.
• Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass
audience.
• But can build civil society.
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(3) Many-to-many forms of communication with
audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at
organizing a mass audience.
• But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.
Case studies
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4 Case studies – allow us to see how
these dynamics play out in real life.
China
The Ukraine
Lebanon, Bahrain and the Arab world
Russia
China and the Internet
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China has a highly developed set of controls on
Internet.
not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has
dynamic filtering.
Can block pages that contain specific words
(Falun Gong).
Has also blocked access sporadically to search
engines at sensitive moments.
Blocked Google before an important Party
Congress.
Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo!
and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.
Jingjing and Chacha
Blocking of content
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On the one hand, this has led to severe
restrictions on what you can and cannot
talk about using the Internet in China.
• Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc.
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On the other, people still find ways to talk
about political issues, but in highly indirect
ways.
Some evidence that a limited degree of
power is leaking away from the state.
• Case of email from reporter – and response.
Civil society vs. hyper-nationalism
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Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US
should not seek to push China on Internet
freedom issues.
• Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to
flourish if they are not seen as directly
challenging the regime.
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Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil
society – a realm of conversation outside
the control of the state.
And perhaps leading to long run transition
to democracy or at least a more
responsive regime.
Alternative scenario
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However, there is an alternative possibility
– c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005.
These were organized by a mixture of
bulletin boards (primitive forms of manyto-many) and text messaging.
Initially, they were at least tacitly
encouraged by the regime.
However, rapidly got out of control and
developed a life of their own – eventually
squashed by the authorities.
This suggests that the benign civil society
scenario isn’t the only one possible.
The Ukraine
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Dramatic elections in 2004 following the
exit from power of Kuchma.
Opposition had a popular candidate in
Yuschenko.
Government engaged in extensive voterigging to ensure that their candidate –
Victor Yanukovych won.
Opposition organized protests in which
100,000-300,000 people came out every
day to protest in Kiev, with other protests
in other parts of Ukraine.
SMS messaging
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SMS messages not the only factor in
getting people out to protest.
But did play an important role in
organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing
young people).
• College students used SMS to tell a dozen of
their friends to come to Independence Square
– and to forward the message on to a dozen
others creating a snowball effect.
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Also provided less organized forms of
political communication – political jokes
etc.
Blogs
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Some have claimed that blogs played
an important role.
Some evidence of a role for
Ukrainskaya Pravda.
Substitute for censored print media.
But only 12% of Ukrainians had
Internet access on a regular basis.
Thus – its impact was limited to
elites.
Old style media
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Traditional TV also played a highly
important role – bizarrely, the
opposition had control over a TV
station.
One notorious incident where
Yanukovych was apparently attacked
with “heavy, blunt instruments.”
But this wasn’t quite what it
appeared.
Final results
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Public outcry led to a second vote being
held, which Yuschenko won.
However, hasn’t proved a long term
success.
Opposition fragmented after the elections.
Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at
best a quite unstable democracy with
continuing structural issues.
The Arab World
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The Internet still plays only a minor role in the
Arab world because of low levels of penetration
(not many people have access).
Cell phone access is relatively low too.
Satellite television is in many ways more
important.
But there are important cases where the Internet
and related technologies have made a political
difference.
Lebanon – the Cedar Revolution
Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and
Sunni rulers.
Cedar revolution and Internet
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Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet
than many other parts of the Arab world.
“Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use
of text messaging to manage demonstrations.
• Organized protests and helped protestors converge at
designated points
• Used to share encouraging information about the
sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to
stop demonstrators from reaching central Beirut
• Used to share photographs that were often later
uploaded to websites
Blogs and the Cedar Revolution
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Contrary to some claims, blogs played no
major role in the Cedar Revolution.
There were only a few Lebanese blogs in
existence when it happened.
Afterwards – a flowering of blogs,
primarily among Lebanese expatriates
who wanted to discuss what was
happening.
Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices
of the street.’
Revolution’s Aftermath
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Like the Ukraine, the revolution has
not sustained itself very well.
Repeated assassinations of antiSyrian politicians.
Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli
incursion.
General sense of chaos, instability –
not by any stretch of the imagination
an established democracy.
Bahrain
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Unusual among Arab countries in
high penetration of the Internet –
nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it.
Also a society which is divided in
important ways.
• Shias form a majority of the population.
• But are effectively excluded from
politics; ruling family and elite are
Sunni.
Use of Internet by disaffected
groups
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Both democratic activists and Shia
activists have common interests (a more
democratic Bahrain would give Shias more
power).
Have used Internet to articulate a political
voice that they can’t in mainstream
newspapers.
Bahrain Online (founded by Ali
Abduleman) hosts web forums that
vigorously debate politics.
Organized dissidence
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Blogs and cellphones have gone together
to organize flash protests.
Abdulemam has used WWW, email and
text messages to organize flash protests.
Opposition groups have used Bahrain
Online to organize protests and strikes.
Has led to significant political disaffection,
culminating in a dramatic set of events in
2005.
UN Report
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Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested
in February 2005 for publishing a critical
UN human rights report on their website.
Before arrest was even announced, a
consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali
web page.
This set in motion mass protests, and the
involvement of Shia newspapers and
liberal newspapers in denouncing the
arrests.
80,000 people involved in street
demonstrations.
Action on the Street
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Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’
pairings of protestors with mobile
phones to take photos and bloggers
with computers to publish them.
Photos spread across Internet.
Al Jazeera started broadcasting the
protests live.
Abdulemam freed after fifteen days.
Other Arab bloggers
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This is a success story for democracy.
However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out, Western
commentators tend to emphasise pro-democracy
bloggers and de-emphasize others, who have
differing (some legitimate, some problematic)
views of politics and society.
Islamic commentators have been vigorous
adopters of new technologies.
Muslim Brotherhood has established an important
presence in the Egyptian blogosphere.
Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW
video – through circulation of beheading videos,
video messages from their leaders etc.
The Internet in Putin’s Russia
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Russia – presents yet another model of the
relationship between the Internet and the
government.
Not an authoritarian regime – but not very
democratic either.
In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative
to a media sector that is only weakly democratic.
TV stations are controlled by government friendly
forces.
Newspapers are either ineffective, or progovernment.
But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in
the way of alternative voices – why?
Indirect State control
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Not censorship as in China
• Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a
dominant role in the market.
• Laws require that ISPs allow govt access
to incoming and outgoing traffic.
• Yet the government doesn’t use these to
block traffic as in other parts of the
world.
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Instead, a softer approach.
Soft authoritarianism
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Russian government has an Internet
policy similar to that for the normal
media.
Shadowy backers for many online news
sources, whom the Kremlin can influence.
Denunciations of alternative voices as
being catspaws for “foreign” interests.
This means that much of the information
available online for Russians is, effectively,
propaganda.
More subtle – but also perhaps more
effective in the long run.
Lessons of Democracy and the Internet
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Different technologies do have different
consequences.
We see how cellphone text messaging is
the medium of choice for organizing
protests.
Blogs may play an important role (within
limits) in getting message out to others,
and in framing events.
YouTube and other media are likely to
become more important over time, given
role played by TV in existing protests.
Limits of Internet
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Internet based technologies and cellphones may
have improved chances for mobilizing protests.
But this is not enough in itself to create
democracy.
Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine
suggest that protests and the removal of the
authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own
to create successful democracies.
It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may
be a bad thing over the longer term.
• Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to
be built up.
Internet and civil society
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As McKinnon suggests – it may well be
that the Internet is more important in the
long run because it creates a civil society.
Forms of cultural expression and debate
that are outside the control of the state.
“American Idol” type show as the avatar of
democracy.
Evidence from eighteenth century England
and elsewhere that this was important
over the longer run.