Transcript PPT Slides -- February 17 - Peace and Conflict Studies

PACS 2500
Introduction to
Peace and Conflict Studies
Guy Burgess
Co-Director
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635
[email protected]
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Conflict Resolution
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/02/17/gop-primary-deal-breakerscommon-core-immigration-reform-and-opposition-to-gaymarriage/?tid=HP_politics?tid=HP_politics
Gaza Tragedy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/world/2015/02/13/gaza-misery/
The World Is Run By Those Who
Show Up
http://www.dailycamera.com/guest-opinions/ci_27537254/ben-binder-city-councils-plansprohibit-student-housing
The Fractal Effect
https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/02/13/ir-theory-for-lovers-a-valentinesguide/?utm_content=buffera3e49&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Negotiating Tactic
Lederach's Levels of Action
Levels of Action / Track I & II
Track I: Table-Oriented Layer
Track II: Directory-Oriented Layer
Grassroots Citizens
Synchronizing Peacemaking Levels
Peacemaking Goal: Move the Pyramids Together
Synchronizing Peacemaking Levels
Peacemaking Goal: Move the Pyramids Together
Unsynchronizing Peacemaking
Peacemaking Failure: Peace Unsupported by Grassroots
Unsynchronizing Peacemaking
Peacemaking Failure: Peace Unsupported by Elites
“If the people lead then their leaders will follow”
The Role of Middle-Range Leadership
Middle-out Strategy
Requires bringing along grass-roots and elites
Levels of Action
Top Down
Middle Out
Bottom Up
Levels of Action / Track I & II
Track I: Table-Oriented Layer
Track II: Directory-Oriented Layer
Visualizing Intractable Conflict
Intractable Conflict
Overlay / Core
Overlay
Core
Overlay Problems
Escalation
Communication
Relationship
Collaboration
Core
Core Issues
Distributional
Moral
Status
Identity
Overlays
Overlay / Core Variations
Relationship,
Distributional / Status
Focused
Communication
(Misunderstanding),
Moral / Identity Group
Focused
Many, many other possibilities exist
Overlay / Core Theory of Change
 Limiting overlay problems wherever
possible
 Address the core issues as constructively
as possible
Overlay Problems: Escalation
Escalation
Relationship
Communication
Collaboration
Core
Escalation
Violence Breakover
Conflict Intensification
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Vengeance
Self-Defense
Feedback Loops
Rachets
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Sacrifice Trap
Shame Trap
Personalization Breakover
Enmity Reinforcement
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Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Recreational Complaint
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Interpersonal Attack
Unthinking Anger
Tactical Choices
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Beginnings
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Out-Group Identity
Worst Case Bias
Victim Bias
Grievances
Invincibility Illusion
Tactical Escalation / Response
Coalition Building/Polarization
De-Escalation Strategies
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Portray Conflict Process as the Source of
Evil and All Sides as Victim (e.g. Hiroshima)
“Mistakes Were Made” Amnesty (?War
Criminal Problem?)
Initiate Cooling-off Periods
Give Losers a Future They Can Live With
(World War I vs. II Settlement)
Trust Earning / Confidence Building
(GRIT)
Recognition that Escalation Strengthens
Enemies as well as Friends
No Response or Minimal Response to
Provocation
De-Escalation Strategies
Disarming Behavior to Break Stereotypes
(Sadat)
Pursue Cooperative Activities between
Enemies
Replace Negotiators
Correct Other Overlay Problems
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Limit Misunderstandings
Clarify Facts
Pursue Fair Process
Create Islands of Un-escalated Discourse
Accurate Cost of Conflict Accounting
Overlay Problems:
Communication, Facts
Escalation
Relationships
Communication
Facts
Collaboration
Core
Broadcasting/Narrowcasting
Correlation / Causation
Conflict of Interest
It's hard to get someone to understand
something when their job depends on not
understanding it.
Distinguishing Facts from Values
 How do policy options affect leopard
frogs?
 How much is it worth to increase frog
populations?
The Analysis Paralysis Problem

Edmund Muskie
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"… one armed
scientist..."
The "fruitless
search for
certainty" leads to
the "delay/default"
syndrome

And the adoption
of the businessas-usual option
How Much Are People Worth?
$?
“Opportunity Costs”
• Could human
welfare be better
advanced with
expenditures in
other areas?
• Whose human
welfare?
Risk vs. Uncertainty
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Risk
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Known possible outcomes
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Known costs associated with those outcomes
Known probability of those outcomes
Insurance possible
Uncertainty
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Known and unknown possible outcomes
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Known and unknown costs associated with those
outcomes
Known and unknown probability of those outcomes
Insurance not possible
Hunch gambling possible
Avoiding the Ostrich Trap
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Predicting the
Future?
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.8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4
Charles Linbloom
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"The next change"
Requires continual
monitoring and
reassessment
Can’t Be Too Safe Rachet
Also Risky Shift
Hierarchy of Wastebaskets
Trust
 To be useful factual information must be:
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Worthy of trust
Trusted
Understood
Sensibly acted upon
How do you achieve this?
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The economy?
Security?
Climate change?
Overlay Problems:
Communication
Escalation
Communication
Relationships
Collaboration
Core
The Iron Law of Stereotypes
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Bandwidth Limit
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Information transfer
capacity
We can't know everything
about everyone
We have to generalize
The key is to distinguish
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Inaccurate stereotypes
Accurate stereotypes
Stereotypes
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Identify examples of
inaccurate and damaging
stereotypes
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Generalizing extremists
Identify examples of
accurate and helpful
stereotypes

New York, Washington,
Boulder story
Combating Enemy Images
The problem:
 We tend to view others
through the lens of
stereotypes, focusing only
on the faults of our
enemies, and the positive
characteristics of our
friends.
Options for making things better:
 Dialogue, appreciative
listening, active listening,
narratives, people-topeople programs, etc.
Listening Skills
Promoting understanding
not immediate resolution
 Active listening
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Not “Rebuttal Listening”
Not merely waiting your
turn to talk
Appreciative inquiry
Dialog
Story Telling
Common Ground
Cognitive Dissonance /
Confirmation Bias

People discount information
that challenges their world
view
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Minds are like parachutes,
they function best when
they're open.
The QED Syndrome
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Quod erat demonstrandum
Thus it is proven
What possible errors in your
worldview won't you
consider?
“I” vs. “You” Messages
I Messages
• Communicate problems without
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•
•
•
escalating conflict
Statement about yourself
Begin with “I…”
Usually focus on a feeling
State a problem without blame
You Messages
• Communicate problems but may
escalate conflict
• Statement about the Other
• Begin with “You…”
• Usually focus on an act
• Often blame the Other for the problem
"I" vs. "You" Messages
I Message Examples
• I came home to try to get
some studying done and
found the place to messy to
work in. Was it my turn or
your turn to clean things?
You Messages Examples
• You are a slob. You left the
place a bloody mess again. I
can’t study and it’s your fault!
Political Communication
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http://www.trumanproject.org/
Trying to play hard ball” politics and
do the right thing (from their
perspective)
Words, Voice, Visuals?
Words
Voice
Visuals
Source: Truman National Security Project
Projecting Strength
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Stand up straight
Extend your arms way over your head
Lower them but maintain your head and
shoulder position
Cultivate a military, “at ease” position
(standing at attention is too stiff)
Pretend you’re holding a ball (golf ball to
giant pilates ball)
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Palms up (palms forward indicates
submission)
Source: Truman National Security Project
Projecting Warmth
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Focus on the smile
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Must be genuine
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Only good actors / actresses can fake it
Exploits mirror neurons
70% of congressional winners can be
predicted by visuals
Can’t be a submissive smile
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Raised eyebrows
Eyes must be “steely”
Source: Truman National Security Project
Wesley Clarke
Tricks: Misdirection Ploy
David Copperfield
Tricks: “Hobbes,” “Who Me?” Ploy
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Innuendo – “He’s not a Muslim, as far as I know”
Surrogates
Anonymous accusers – “People say …”
Free lancers
Tricks: “Everybody Does It” Ploy
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Devise and implement a Machiavellian plan.
Implement it in a big way.
Find some way to accuse the other side doing
something similar (even though it may be minor)
Invoke the “can’t play hardball” defense
Last minute variation: Act when the opponent has no
time to respond (like just before the election)
Communication Matrix
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What do we say
about them?
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What do they say
about themselves?
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What do we say
about ourselves?
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What do they they
about us?
Source: Truman National Security Project
Overlay Problems:
Relationships
Escalation
Relationships
Communication
Collaboration
Core
Compassion
That which is hurtful to
you do not do to others
The Meeting Place
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Justice
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Truth
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Acknowledge the guilt, build a common
history
Peace
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Punish those that committed “unrightable”,
“unspeakable” wrongs
Stop the fighting and killing (even if it
means letting people “get away with it”)
Mercy

Stop the hate with forgiveness
Lederach
Trade-Offs
Visioning
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Justice
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Truth
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Stop the fighting and killing (even if it
means letting people “get away with it”)
Mercy
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Acknowledge the guilt, build a common
history
Peace
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Punish those that committed “unrightable”,
“unspeakable” wrongs
Stop the hate with forgiveness
Future Vision
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Imagining a positive future vision and a fair
relationship
Elise
Boulding