Transcript PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results

Resilience Concepts and
Measurement Workshop
2.3 Further Applications of Resilience Analyses
Tim Frankenberger
TANGO International
Washington, D.C.
January 12, 2017
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
Session 2.3 Overview
• Brief overview of resilience studies and
analyses from:
• Ethiopia PRIME IE RMS – Further analysis
• Enhancing Resilience & Economic Growth in
Somalia Baseline
• Zimbabwe Resilience Research Initiative (ZRRI)
Study
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
2
PRIME IE RMS
• Recall:
• Over the 1-year period between March 2014 and March
2015, households in the two areas in Ethiopia chosen as
sites of the PRIME project’s impact evaluation, Borena and
Jijiga, experienced unusually severe drought conditions.
• TANGO employed data collected before the drought
occurred (with a baseline survey in December 2013)
and after, the latter from a panel of 414 households
included in the 2014-2015 Interim Monitoring
Survey (IMS).
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
3
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis RQs
1. Which resilience capacities enabled households to
recover from the drought?
2. What were the coping strategies that the
capacities enabled (or helped prevent?)
3. Which resilience capacities should be bolstered to
increase households’ resilience to drought in the
PRIME project’s operational area?
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
4
PRIME IE RMS: Methods
• Three sets of methods were applied:
• Growth regressions-The change in food security
over each drought wave was regressed on a variety of
indicators of household and community resilience
capacity while also controlling for the degree of shock
exposure, initial food security, and household
characteristics.
• Positive deviance analysis- A group of households
that fared far better than average over the course of
the drought waves.
• Descriptive and regression analyses to determine
which capacities enabled or prevented different
household coping strategies.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
5
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results
Which resilience capacities enabled households
to recover from the drought?
• Across all analyses, the capacity that is most
consistently associated with households’ ability to
recover from the drought – and for which the
strongest evidence exists from this analysis—is:
• Access to financial resources
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
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PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results
Five other capacities also show up as having
supported households’ ability to recover across
the shock waves and methods of analysis:
 Bonding social capital (bonds between community
members);
 Access to informal safety nets;
 Availability of hazard insurance;
 Asset ownership; and
 Access to communal natural resources.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
7
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results
• In terms of coping strategies used by positive
deviants (PD), the two most widely used were
 Participate in food-for-work or cash-for-work; and
 Receive food aid.
• PD households were better able to maintain
stability in their food security in the face of the
drought by relying on formal sources of
assistance.
• The formal assistance prevented them from
turning to other negative coping strategies
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
8
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results
• Recall:
• The PRIME project’s goal is to enable households
to become more resilient to future droughts in a
self-reliant manner.
• The project seeks to identify the resilience
capacities that are associated with less reliance
on food aid during the drought
• The PRIME project would also aim to discourage
the use of negative coping strategies that
undermine households’ long-term resilience.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
9
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis Results
• The resilience capacities that are likely to reduce
households’ reliance on food aid, encourage the use
of positive, self-reliant coping strategies, and/or to
reduce the use of negative coping strategies:
• Bonding social capital,
• Access to informal safety nets,
• Asset ownership,
• Bridging social capital,
• Access to financial resources,
• Human capital,
• Access to communal natural resources, and
• Social protection in communities.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
10
PRIME IE RMS: Further Analysis
Conclusions
•Life-saving assistance such as food aid and assistance
in the event of livestock loss (“hazard insurance”) will
continue to be needed in the future.
•Timely social protection prevents households
from engaging in negative coping strategies and
contributes to their recovery as demonstrated by
the positive deviant analysis. These are critical
investments that support resilience.
•The PRIME project’s investments should also
continue to help build those resilience capacities that
enable households to become more resilient to future
droughts in a self-reliant manner.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
11
Studies: Somalia Baseline
• Enhancing Resilience and Economic Growth in Somalia Program:
Baseline Study (2014-2017)
• USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)
• Office of Food for Peace (FFP)
• East Africa Regional Mission (EA)
• Project goals:
• Increase the capacity of households and communities to adapt to
recurrent shocks
• Build on the ecological, social, and economic capital of households
and communities
• Increase learning of communities, implementers, USAID, and
other stakeholders
• Program beneficiaries, IPs, and geographic location:
•
•
•
Somalia Operational Map
STORRE (CARE): Southern Somalia; primarily peri-urban
PROGRESS (Catholic Relief Services): Somaliland; primarily rural
REAL (World Vision); Southern Somalia; primarily urban
• Data
• Baseline (2016)
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
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Somalia Key Findings
• Majority of households exposed to at least one shock
in the year prior to survey across project areas.
• Most shocks are environmental (drought,
flooding, late/variable rainfall).
• Poorest HHs- highest exposure to shocks.
• Military conflict/trade disruptions (PROGRESS).
• On going stressors (lack of health facilities; lack
of schools).
• Across project areas, all resilience capacities are at
very low levels.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
13
Somalia Key Findings
• Absorptive capacity does not appear to contribute to
improved food security or recovery.
• Lack of transformative capacity explains low
household recovery.
• Households have such low capacity levels that
they are particularly dependent upon
community-level capacities.
• In areas of higher community-level capacities,
such as access to markets and infrastructures,
households show better recovery.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
14
Study: Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe Resilience Research Initiative
(ZRRI) Study
• Funded by the European Union; Implemented in
partnership with Mercy Corps Zimbabwe and the
Institute of Environmental Studies (IES) at the
University of Zimbabwe.
• Project goals:
• Identify factors that contribute to HH/community
resilience of vulnerable populations in the face of
recurring shocks/stresses.
Mbire and Mberengwa
Districts
• Geographic location:
• Mbire and Mberengwa districts
• Data:
• Exploratory baseline survey (Oct/Dec0 2015)
• Qualitative RMS (May 2016)
• Endline survey (Aug 2016)
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
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ZRRI Study:
1. How did households respond to the
drought?
Reduced food consumption;
Selling/slaughtering livestock;
Reliance on formal assistance (GoZ; NGOs);
Casual labor (agriculture, mining, safari tours);
and
• Social capital and remittances
•
•
•
•
• Erosion of social capital as drought wore on.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
16
ZRRI Study
2. Did household responses affect their
resilience to the drought?
• Engaging in reduction of food consumption  less
resilient.
• Use of formal assistance (GoZ/NGOs) to cope with
the drought contributed to HH resilience.
• Level of assistance was low.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
17
ZRRI Study
3. Did household resilience capacity affect how
households responded to the drought?
• Access to assets  prevented food consumption reduction
strategies (Mberenwa).
• Social capital, particularly in the absence of informal safety
nets (Mberenwa).
• Access to formal safety nets tendency to prevent selling of
assets (Mbire).
• Access to information (early warning) did not help prevent
negative coping strategies.
• Diversification into livelihoods with different risk profiles
less likely to resort to negative coping strategies (reduce
food consumption) but did not contribute to resilience
• Livelihoods with low returns.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
18
Programming Considerations (ZRRI)
Absorptive Capacity
Social capital
Informal safety nets
Adaptive Capacity
Improved productivity
Improved government
capacity
Focus on youths
Improved in/formal
governance
Human capital
Asset ownership/protection
Livelihood diversification
Strengthened EW/DRR
Access to savings
Transformative Capacity
Exposure to/use of
information
Asset ownership
Formal safety nets
Gender equity
Acces to infrastructure
Access to basic services
Access to markets/financial
services
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
19
ZRRI Study Summary
• HHs in both districts have fairly low existing
capacities for dealing with drought.
• Wide array of program initiatives appropriate.
• Timely food assistance triggered by a
shock/stress critical for helping HHs
maintain well-being and building resilience.
• Requires stable food production/income
generation over time.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
20
Plenary Discussion
• To what extent does greater resilience
capacity reduce the negative impact of shocks
on well-being?
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
21
References
• Smith, Lisa C., and Frankenberger, Timothy R. Ethiopia
Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement and Market
Expansion (PRIME) Project Interim Monitoring Survey 201415 Deep Dive: Uncovering the pathways to resilience. TANGO
International, November. (forthcoming).
• USAID. Baseline Study of the Enhancing Resilience and
Economic Growth in Somalia Program. Submitted by Save the
Children in partnership with TANGO International. Prepared
by Mark Langworthy, Maryada Vallet, Stephanie Martin, Tom
Bower and Towfique Aziz. Draft. 1.
• Nelson, S. 2016. Zimbabwe Resilience Research Initiative
(ZRRI): Final Report. Draft. Prepared by TANGO International
for Mercy Corps. 28 December.
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program and Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Network are made possible
by the generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
www.TheTOPSProgram.org
22