Transcript Mexico: The Demise of the Revolution

THE DEMISE OF THE
REVOLUTION
Osvaldo Jordan
November 12, 2009
THE END OF THE MIRACLE
After the Tlatelolco Massacre, the PRI never
recovered its previous level of popular support.
Although the Mexican economy boomed during the
1970s, especially after the oil crises, the Lost
Decade brought about complete economic collapse.
In 1982, Mexico was the first country in Latin American
to default on its foreign debt.
During the next decades, technocrats implemented
Structural Adjustment, including the privatization of
state-owned enterprises and the negotiation of the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
THE 1988 ELECTIONS
The PRI-candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gortari,
fought against the son of Lazaro Cardenas,
Cuauhtémoc Cardenas, who was leading a
dissident faction of PRI that had formed the
Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD).
Today, most analysts consider that Cardenas won
the 1988 elections.
Salinas de Gortari presided over a most corrupt
Mexican administration, leaving the country with
accusations of theft, extortion and murder.
Contradictorily, he was also the main architect of
Neoliberal reform in Mexico, including the
signature of NAFTA in 1993.
THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION
• The same day that NAFTA came into effect, the
Ejercito Zapatista para la Liberacion Nacional
(EZLN) started an armed insurrection in
Chiapas, Southern Mexico.
• The Ernesto Zedillo Administration (1994-2000)
struggled to clean the image of the Presidency,
control the insurgency in Chiapas, stabilize the
economy following the Peso Crisis, and fully
implement NAFTA.
• In 2000, Zedillo presided over the most clean
election in Mexican history, in which the
opposition candidate Vicente Fox (PAN) won the
election. Cuauhtémoc Cardenas finished third.
THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION
How do you account for the democratic
transition in Mexico?
- Popular Mobilizations: Tlatelolco, the
1988 elections, and Chiapas?
- Degeneration of the PRI corporatist
model?
- The North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA)?
According to Cameron and Wise (2004),
the PRI oversold the neoliberal model.
THE AGE OF NEOLIBERALISM
Vicente Fox (2000-2006) did not only continue the
implementation of NAFTA, but deepened
economic reform with the external promotion of
Mexican capitalism (Plan Puebla-Panama, now
called Mesoamerica Project).
Fox cultivated a strong partnership with the United
States, yet opposed the War on Terrorism and
restrictions on immigration.
Even with these independent political positions, he
was still called Cachorro del Imperio by Hugo
Chavez in 2005.
THE 2006 ELECTIONS
Mexico For or Against the United States?
The main contenders were Felipe Calderon
(PAN), who vowed to continue the
implementation of NAFTA and the Neoliberal
Economic Model, and
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD), who
was expected to turn Mexico away from
Neoliberalism and throw the country deep
into the Pink Tide.
Has PRI ceased to be a relevant contender
in Mexican politics?
THE CALDERON
ADMINISTRATION
• Although Calderon has tried to move ahead with
privatizing government enterprises, such as
CEMEX and Fuerza y Luz, he has also faced
entrenched opposition from PRD legislators and
grassroots organizations.
• Calderon has also embarked in a costly war
against criminal organizations, deploying the
military in the streets, especially in border cities
like Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez.
• He has received the decisive military support of
the United States through the Merida Initiative,
also called Plan Mexico. This program also
includes the Central American republics.