Transcript ISA paper and UR

This file contains the three figures used in
John Mueller’s “The Iraq Syndrome,” as
published in the November-December
2005 issue of Foreign Affairs with the Iraq
and Afghanistan figures updated. It also
contains several other related tables and
graphs. The first figure relates to the
postscript on the article, published by
foreignaffairs.com in March 2011.
--updated to March 20, 2011
Percent saying “stay out”
100
90
80
Troops to Bosnia
End of
Vietnam War
70
60
Iraq War
Beginning of
Vietnam War
50
Gulf War
9/11
40
30
20
Kosovo
10
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Do you think it will be best for the future of this country if we take
an active part in world affairs, or if we stayed out of world affairs?
2010
In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Korea, do you think the
United States made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea (South Korea), or not? Or:
Do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?
(percent supporting of those with opinion)
100
75
50
25
China
enters war
0
1950.0
1951.0
1952.0
1953.0
1954.0
1955.0
1956.0
1957.0
1958.0
In view of the developments since we entered the war in Vietnam, do you
think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?
(percent supporting of those with opinion)
100
75
50
25
Tet
offensive
0
1965.0
1966.0
1967.0
1968.0
1969.0
1970.0
1971.0
1972.0
1973.0
In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you
think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?
(percent supporting of those with opinion)
100
After London
bombings
75
Iraq
elections
50
9/11 fifth
After Iraq
elections
25
Abu Ghraib
Iraq forms
government
Petraeus
report
Katrina
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
2009.0
2010.0
2011.0
Thinking (now) about U.S. military action in Afghanistan (that began in
October 2001): Do you think the United States made a mistake in
sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not?
(percent supporting of those with opinion)
100
75
50
9/11
25
0
2001.0
2002.0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
2009.0
2010.0
2011.0
Support for the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan
100
75
50
Iraq
Vietnam
Korea
Afghanistan
25
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Time, in years, since the beginning of the war
8
9
10
Suppose President George W. Bush decides to order U.S. troops into a ground attack against Iraqi forces. Would you
favor or oppose that decision? (If support) The number of possible casualties in a ground war with Iraq had been
estimated at between 100 American soldiers, if the Iraqi military offers little resistance, to as many at 5,000 American
soldiers if the Iraqi Republican Guard fight an effective urban defense. With this in mind, would you still support
sending ground troops to fight in Iraq if it meant that up to 100 American soldiers would be killed in battle, or not? (If
yes) Would you still support sending ground troops if up to 500 American soldiers were killed in battle or not? (If yes)
Up to 1,000? (If yes) Up to 5,000? (If yes) Would you say you would support sending ground troops to fight in Iraq
no matter what iT cost in American casualties, or not?
--Los Angeles Times
December 15-17, 2002: before the war
35% Oppose war
7 Don't know if favor or oppose
58 Favor war
49%
46%
43%
37%
32%
24%
17%
6%
Still favor if any killed
Still favor if 100 killed
Still favor if 500 killed
Still favor if 1000 killed
Still favor if 5000 killed
Still favor if more than 5000 but not unlimited
Still favor no matter the cost in American casualties
Don't know about casualties
Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq?
December 15-17, 2006: nearly 3000 U.S. fatalities
31 Favor war
67 Oppose war
8 Unsure
--Washingon Post
Would you favor or oppose invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops in
an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power?
--Gallup
100
Favor
War begins
75
50
9/11
Campaign for
war begins
25
0
2001.0
2001.5
2002.0
2002.5
2003.0
2003.5
Do you think removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the loss
of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not?
Percent worth it
--CBS News
100
75
Saddam
captured
50
25
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?
Wording prior to 6/03: "All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?"
Wording, 6/03-12/03: "All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?"
100
Saddam
captured
75
Worth going to war
Beginning and end of
"major combat operations"
50
25
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your
opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S.
casualties in Iraq?
Percent acceptable
--Washington Post
100
75
50
25
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the
United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting or not?
Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
--Washington Post
100
75
Strongly oppose
Oppose
Oppose
50
25
Somewhat oppose
Somewhat favor
Favor
Favor
Strongly favor
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
2009.0
2010.0
Do you think the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is
restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties; OR, do you think
the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further
U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there?
Percent for keeping U.S. forces in Iraq
--Washington Post
100
75
50
25
0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
2009.0