Transcript Document

From Superpower to Besieged
Global Power
• What is the Bush Doctrine and its Revolutionary
Vision of a Transformed Global Order to Suit the
administration’s preferences?
• Why has the Bush Doctrine failed, exposing the
United States as a formidable global power, but
NOT a superpower?
• Leave open the question of the implications of
viewing the United States as a formidable power,
but not a superpower to the discussion following
these remarks
What Do We Mean by
Superpower?
• A superpower should be able
– (1) to impose its preferences for global order on
adversaries coercively or
– (2) to elicit the consent for its preferred vision
of global order from allies
• The Bush Doctrine has failed on both
counts
The Power and Moral Assumptions
of the Bush Doctrine
• The United States is the Sole Superpower in International
and Global Politics
– The United States has defeated all global rivals —Fascism, Nazism,
Communism
– No one state or combination of states today can defeat its military
forces
– The United States is THE indispensable power for the preservation
of the coalition of democratic, market states, providing the public
goods of security and economic resources to ensure their
ascendancy
– Its power — material and ideational, hard and soft — is sufficient,
unilaterally, to reform global order to its linking
The Time to Transform the
Global Order Is Now
• Bush at West Point, Spring, 2002:
“. . . [A]s we defend peace, we also have an
historic opportunity to preserve the peace. We
have our best chance since the rise of the
nation-state in the seventeenth century to build
a world where the great powers compete in
peace instead of prepare for war.”
From Balance of Power to
American Hegemony
• The wars of the past because of the
breakdown of the balance of power are
precluded because of the overwhelming
material power of the United States
– No state or coalition can balance U.S. power
– The United States has the resources and will to
outspend any state or rival coalition if it tries
– So why try?
Pax America Rests on the Assumption of
the United States as the Sole Superpower
• “Competition between great nations is inevitable,
but armed conflict in our world is not. More and
more civilized nations find ourselves on the same
side — united by common dangers of terrorist
violence and chaos. America has, and intends to
keep, military strength beyond challenge, thereby,
making the destabilizing arms races of other eras
pointless, and limiting rivalries to trade and other
pursuits of peace.”
The Moral Right and Obligation to Use
American Power to Reform Global Order
• Every state has the right of self-defense
• American power acts on behalf of the international
community
• The United States is obliged to act when the
international community and United Nations is
incapable of acting
• Installing democratic regimes by force is justified,
notwithstanding the UN Charter’s prohibition of
intervening in the domestic affairs of states
– People will choose freedom if given a choice
– A world of democratic regimes will be peaceful
The Deep Domestic Roots of the Legitimate
Use of Force: American Exceptionalism
• American political values and practices are
morally superior and exceptional
– Both Right and Left through American history converge
on this assumption
– President Bush in the National Security of the U.S,
2002: The United States is “a single sustainable model
for national success: freedom, democracy, and free
enterprise.”
– If the United States is morally exceptional, then it can
employ exceptional methods and means to reform
global order and defeat its rivals, notably in conducting
a long-term global war on terrorists and terroristsupporting nondemocratic regimes
The Strategic Field of Action for
American Power
• The entire globe
– State boundaries are no barrier to the projection of American
power
– The territory of the United States is not apart from this strategic
terrain, but an integral field of action
– The world’s populations are no less subject to American power
– The American people too, are subject to the inherently legitimate
use of American power at the disposal of the American
government, that is, the President as head of a unified executive.
– The Constitution confers all necessary power and authority on the
President as Chief Executive and Commander-in-Chief of the
armed forces to cope with all threats confronting the United States
as the President defines them
Means and Methods Available to
the Superpower as Superpower
• Need for flexible use of power requires unilateralism and
renunciation of international constraints
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ABM treaty renounced
Kyoto rejected
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is not ratified
The International Criminal Court rejected
Treaties to ban land mines and chemical and biological weapons rejected
The United States embarks on the renovation and perfection of its nuclear
arsenal while denying other states a similar right of self-defense
– Unilaterally imposed exceptions to the Non- Proliferation Treaty are
undertaken in concessions to India
– The Geneva Convention provisions against Torture and its
proscriptions to protect prisoners are marginalized as inoperative in
the global war of terror —as “quaint”
Additional Superpower Strategic
Means and Methods
• Create “Coalitions of the Willing,” expecting other
actions to bandwagon on American power
• Employ the politics of fait accompli to compel
foreign and domestic opponents to accede to
American power
• Divide and rule: Europe divided into old and new;
Russia marginalized as NATO expands
• Pre-emptive and preventive war the preferred
option and always on the table in negotiations with
rivals
Inherent Power and Authority of the President
Precedes the Constitution under Conditions of
Threats to the State
• The Congress, having passed a resolution
authorizing the President to use force to compel
Iraqi adherence to international accords is
henceforward precluded from limiting Presidential
power
• The President enjoys inherent authority to use
American power as Chief Executive and
Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces
• The President can define through so-called signing
statements those laws he will enforce or interpret
how he will enforce them
The Imperial President in Action
• Prisoners, designated by the President solely as “illegal
enemy combatants” can be held, controlled and tortured in
violation of international humanitarian norms and the
Geneva convention; hence Abu Ghraib and Guantánamo
• Prisoners can be rendered coercively to their home
countries where they face torture and death
• American can be held without right of habeas corpus if
designated an “illegal enemy combatant”
• Surveillance of American is conducted in violation of law
The Bush Doctrine Meets Reality
• Five factor that have limited the scope of the Bush
Doctrine and its defeat
– The absence of a winning counterinsurgency strategy
– Domestic opposition to the Bush Doctrine and,
specifically, the war in Iraq
– The limited material resources of the United States to
realize the Bush Doctrine
– Domestic Demands for Entitlements
– And the Pushback of Peoples and States of the Global
Society
1) Absence of an Effective
Counter-Insurgency Strategy
• Until recently, the US violated key tenets of counter-insurgency:
— Unity of civilian and military command divided & conflicting
— Close infiltration through surrounding states (Syrian and Iran)
— Control arms storage areas
—Most critically -- win the confidence & support of the
targeted population
* Provide security
+ Separate the population from combatants
+ Gain real-time intelligence
* Provide essential civilian needs
2) Increasing Costs of the Iraq War
& Declining Domestic Support
• As of June 2007: 3500 dead; 30000~
wounded -- some impaired for a lifetime
• Current spending: ~ $100 billion annually
• Support for the war dwindling: President
Bush’s approval rating, critically weighted
by the Iraq war, in less than 30 percent of
the American people -- in contrast to 90
percent after 9/11
3) Limited Resources of the
United States
• Long-Term costs of the war: $1-2 Trillion,
having already exceeded $500 billion
(Congressional Budget Office)
• Rising budget deficits, increased by large
tax cuts
– $9 trillion within a $13 trillion GDP
– One-quarter of the US debt owned by foreign
investors, notably Japan and China
4) Rising Domestic Demand for
Entitlements
• The Social Security Trust Fund has been
raided to meet current spending
– Somewhere between 2010-15 the Fund will be
in deficit
– By 2040, the deficit will reach 2.5 % of GDP
– Medicare spending is projected to rise from 2%
of GDP to over 8 % by 2040
5) The Resistance of Allies & Adversaries to the
Projection & Expansion of American Power
Central Asia:
• Return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Sanctuaries in Pakistan
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Pakistan regime of President Musharraf is opposed at home
Accord with tribes on Afghan border provides Al Qaeda bases
Pakistan intelligence services provides support to Taliban
Pakistan among the most notorious proliferators of nuclear technology
Preventing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons from falling into opponents of the
West remains a persistent concern
• Warlords and drug production continue as global security threat
1) Middle East
• Iraq War: A Calamity
– Insurgency widespread and uncontrolled
– Civil war between communal groups rising and
American forces attacked by all sides
– Terrorist groups increased where they were not before
– Iranian influence growing at the expense of the United
States
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A nuclear Iran is on the horizon
The Shi’ite dominated government of Iraq is aligned with Iran
Iranian arms are being funneled to insurgents
Iranian influence over Israel increased with its support of
Hezbollah and the Israeli-Hezbollah statement of August 2006
2) Middle East
• Israeli-Palestine Conflict
– Neglect of the conflict has eroded US power to control
the conflict
– U.S. policy is largely defined by Israeli strategy and
aims: settlements continue; military intervention by
Israeli unhindered
– U.S. call for elections in Palestine yields the victory of
Hamas, dedicated to the elimination of the Israeli state
and the right of return of all Palestinians
South Asia
• U.S. efforts to draw India into its sphere of
influence exposes weakness of U.S. power
– Nuclear accord with India strengths India’s
military nuclear program and weakens the NonProliferation treaty
– Meanwhile, India strengths relations with China
and resists the role as counter-weight to rising
Chinese power
Northeast Asia
• American power challenged by a nuclear North Korea
• China is central to negotiations to denuclearize N. Korea
• China holds the U.S. economy hostage
– It holds a quarter of the foreign debt of the U.S.
– The U.S. chronically runs a foreign trade debt with China
– China also possesses over $1 trillion in foreign assets
• South Korea pursues an increasingly independent foreign
policy toward the U.S.
• Japan, while the most reliable U.S. partner, also
increasingly pursues a nationally defined foreign policy
that prompts resistance from its regional neighbors,
heightening national tensions
SE Asia
• Former alignment with ASEAN states has
eroded
– Malaysia is openly opposed to Iraq War
– Indonesia, while engaged in the war on terror,
is also marked by heightened Islamic militancy
– The Chinese ‘charm’ offensive, openness to
trade, and investment draws these states into its
sphere of interest
Central and South America
• The U.S. has failed to control its borders: 12
million illegal aliens, largely from Mexico, which
does little to assist the U.S.
• The rise of states opposed to U.S. policies and
power is growing: Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador
• Brazil leads the Group of 21 against Western and
U.S. trade policies in the WTO
• Most states of Latin America increasingly define
their political and economic systems independent
of U.S. influence and intervention.
Africa
• While U.S. aid for AIDS exceeds most
countries to Africa, it’s interest and will to
address African conflicts exposes its
marginal influence
– Rwanda in 1993
– Sudan and the Congo Republic: millions killed,
wounded or dislocated
– Zimbabwe spins out of control
Is the United States a
Superpower?
• A superpower presumably is able either to impose its
preferences on other states or to elicit their support
• The United States does not meet this test
• Yet the United remains a formidable global power
– Its military is the most powerful relative to the forces of other
states
– Its economy is still the largest at $13 trillion in GDP
– Its population is well educated and creative
– It has impressive hard and soft power to negotiate a global
environment favorable to its interests, but it cannot command
others to do its will absent concessions to their interests and power