Transcript Public Opinion, Political Participation, & Voting

PUBLIC OPINION,
POLITICAL
PARTICIPATION,
&
VOTING
CH. 8
 The Population: The relevant group of people
for the question
 Consensus: occurs when a substantial
percentage of a sample agree on an issue
 Polarization: occurs when a large portion of
opposing sides feels intensely about an issue
Public Opinion
 Taking the pulse of the people
 Intensity
 Latency
 Salience
Public Opinion
 Definition: distribution of individual
preferences or evaluations of a given issue,
candidate or institution.
 Distribution-the proportion of the population
that holds one opinion or viewpoint as
compared to those with opposing opinions or
those with no opinion at all
Taking the Pulse of the
People
 Keys
 1. proper sampling-a random choice of an
appropriate set of people
 2. art of asking questions-wording of
question, questions are pretested, questioner
trained—no voice intonations
 3. Thorough analysis and reporting of results,
accuracy validated sample size, margin of
error
 Intensity-how strongly people feel about a
candidate, issue or policy
 Latency-political opinions that exist merely
as potential—(haven’t crystallized)—more
concerned with personal issues than national
issues
 Salience-extent to which people feel issues
are relevant to them
Agents of Political
Socialization
 Family
 Schools
 Mass Media
 Religion
 Ethnic and racial attitudes
How we acquire political
opinions
 Political Socialization-process by which we
develop our political attitudes, values and
beliefs
 Nationalism—a consciousness of the nation-state
and of belonging to that entity is a common
element of political socialization
 Importance of group affiliation vs. individual
Sources of Political
Socialization
 Family: (parent-child similarity)
disagreements between youth’s parents and
friends
 Schools: higher education and political
correctness
Sources… continued
 Mass Media—
wide exposure to newspapers, Internet,
movies, TV; 2000 directed attention to
problems of voting systems, Electoral
College,
 Why is media influential?
media provides “link between individuals
and values/behavior of others”
Other Influences
 Religious/Racial Influences
 1. Religious, racial and ethnic attitudes
 2. Dangerous to stereotype people
Stability and Change Over
Time
 We are slow to change, cling to things that
matter to us, reluctant to change loyalties.
 Opinions that are part of our basic values
remain stable over time, whereas views on
issues that are less central to our values can
show substantial change over time
 Public Opinion changes once a public learns
about an issue
Public Opinion and Public
Policy
 Public opinion change can lead to policy
change(Vietnam, Gulf War)
 Elected officials seek to follow public policy
opinion
 Candidates use polls to determine where and
how to campaign
 Political polls are no substitute for elections
Awareness and Interest
 Varying levels of interest in politics
 Attentive public-25% of American public…tend to
be better educated.
 Nonvoters-35% “political do-nothings”
 Part-time citizens
Only 60% of Americans can name one U.S. Senator
Participation: from opinion
to action
 Influence government in what ways?
 #1 way--Voting, joining interest groups, writing
letters, calls, etc.
 Totalitarian society-participation is very limited
 Even in a democracy, people may fight rather than
accept election(U.S. Civil War)
 Routine participation-National Anthem, Pledge of
Allegiance, jury duty
Politics is a private matter
in America
 Less than one person in four attempts to
influence another person’s vote
 Only on in 20 make a contribution to a
candidate; only one in six designates taxes to
presidential fund
Registration
 Voter registration discourages voting
 Australian ballot: secret response to multiple
voting
 Registration laws vary by state
 Only North Dakota does not require registration
 Most important provision of voter registration is
the closing date-No state can stop registration
more than 30 days before an election
Motor Voter
 1. Allows people to register when applying
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for a renewal of driver’s license
2. States can also use
schools/libraries/city/county offices as
registration sites
3. states can permit mail registration
4. Most registered claim to be independent
which benefits neither party
5. Does not appear to have increased turnout
Turnout
 Turnout is highest in presidential election
 Turnout is higher in general elections than in
primary elections and higher in primary
elections than in special elections
Turnout continued
 Turnout is higher in presidential general
elections than in midterm general elections
and higher presidential primary elections
than in midterm primary elections
 Turnout is higher in elections in which
candidates for federal office are on the ballot
than in state elections in years when there are
no federal contests
Turnout continued
 Local or municipal elections have lower
turnout than state elections and municipal
primaries have even lower rates of
participation
 In 1960, turnout peaked at almost 65 percent
of persons over 21 years of age, has since
declined to 36% in 1998 and 51% in 2000
Why is turnout so low?
 1. Voter registration appears to be the major
block to voting
 2. Too young; election did not seem
important; disinterested in candidates;
inconvenient
 3. American parties are too weak-nonvoter
had no contact with party
Who Votes?
 1. Education level-as education level
increases, so does voting
 2. Race and ethnic background-blacks vote
at lower rates than whites, women voters
exceed that of men
 3. Income and age-those with higher family
income, higher-status careers, older…more
likely to vote
 18-24 year olds least likely to vote/also over 70
How serious is nonvoting?
 If people are too lazy to vote, maybe they
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shouldn’t
Some say a serious issue-”class bias”
The poor are not represented
But nonvoters are not more egalitarian or in
favor of government ownership
Lower voter turnout could be seen as
approval
Nonvoting continued…
 If large nonvoting population were to turnout
to vote it could shift balance of power
 Need for electoral reform after 2000 election,
ensure fair voting(machines) accuracy,
concerns about the media projecting winners
before the polls close.
Nonvoters
 Millions of Americans do not vote when elections are
held.
 Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the
2000 presidential election, and only 46.3 percent of the
electorate voted for the members of the House of
Representatives.
 Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
elections, congressional elections held in years when
there is no presidential election.
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Chapter 6, Section 4
Why People Do Not Vote
 Some people cannot vote for various reasons,
such as physical or mental illness, unexpected
travel, and resident alien citizenship status.
 However, most nonvoters do not vote because
 voting is in some way inconvenient,
 they do not believe that their vote will make a
difference, or
 they distrust politics and political candidates.
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Chapter 6, Section 4
Voters and Voting Behavior
Voting is studied more than any other form of political
participation in the United States. We learn about voting
behavior from:
 The results of elections—information can be gleaned by studying
the results of confidential voting compared to the population make-up of a
particular sector
 The field of survey research—data can be gathered by
conducting polls across specific cross sections of the population, as the
Gallup Organization does
 Studies of political socialization—studying political
socialization, the process by which people gain their political attitudes and
opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting behavior
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Chapter 6, Section 4
Sociological Factors
Voter preferences can’t be predicted by just
one sociological factor. Voter opinion is a
combination of all of these factors and more.
Income and
Occupation
Education
Gender and Age
Religious and
Ethnic Background
Geography
Family and Other
Groups
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Chapter 6, Section 4
Psychological Factors
Voters’ perceptions of their party, the candidates, and the issues
significantly affects their voting.
Party Identification
Candidates and Issues
 The loyalty of people to a
 Candidates and issues are two
particular political party is the
single most significant and
lasting predictor of how a
person will vote.
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short-term factors that can
influence even the most loyal
Democrat or Republican.
People may vote out of their
chosen party if they dislike a
candidate or the party’s stand
on a particular issue.
Chapter 6, Section 4
Voting Choices
 Voting on the Basis of Party
 Voting on the Basis of Candidates
 Voting on the Basis of Issues
Voting Based on Party
 Party Identification-affiliation with a party,
longstanding loyalty
 Even increase in independents, 2/3 of indep.
Are in fact partisan in their behavior,
reinforcing the importance of partisanship
 Party identification more stable than
attitudes about issues or political ideology
Voting on the basis of
candidates
 American electoral politics is in a candidate-
centered era. Likeable, who looks good, who
is more personable
 Candidate appeal often on character
(Reagan, Eisenhower)
 Increasingly, campaigns focus on negative
elements, attacks on stands on abortion,
fundraising
 Attacked for dishonesty, trustworthiness
Voting on basis of issues
 Important but not as central as partisanship
and candidate appeal
 Why?
 Candidates often conceal real position on issues
Voting on issues basis presumes a level of interest in
issues that only a few voters have
 Retrospective voting more likely than
prospective voting
 Prospective voting-voting based on what a
candidate promises if elected
 Retrospective voting- voting based on what a
candidate’s past performance or candidate’s
party’s record of performance
Voting on Issues
continued...
 State of economy often crucial to candidate’s
election
 Usually, voters vote against party in power if
personal finances have worsened
 Democrats focused on issues in 1998 and
picked up 5 seats in House; GOP use of
impeachment issue did not resonate with
voters
The Voting Rights Act of 1965
Provisions of Voting
Rights Act of 1965
Court Decisions Upholding
the Voting Rights Act of 1965
Led to the abolishment of
the poll tax
Harper v. Virginia State Board
of Elections, 1966
Outlawed the use of any
kind of literacy test
Oregon v. Mitchell, 1970
Mandated preclearance
South Carolina v. Katzenbach,
1966
Later amendments added a
Not challenged
language-minority provision
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Chapter 6, Section 3
African Americans at the
Polls
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Chapter 6, Section 3
Nonvoters
 Millions of Americans do not vote when elections are
held.
 Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the
2000 presidential election, and only 46.3 percent of the
electorate voted for the members of the House of
Representatives.
 Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
elections, congressional elections held in years when
there is no presidential election.
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2
3
Chapter 6, Section 4
Why People Do Not Vote
 Some people cannot vote for various reasons,
such as physical or mental illness, unexpected
travel, and resident alien citizenship status.
 However, most nonvoters do not vote because
 voting is in some way inconvenient,
 they do not believe that their vote will make a
difference, or
 they distrust politics and political candidates.
1
2
3
Chapter 6, Section 4
Voters and Voting Behavior
Voting is studied more than any other form of political
participation in the United States. We learn about voting
behavior from:
 The results of elections—information can be gleaned by studying
the results of confidential voting compared to the population make-up of a
particular sector
 The field of survey research—data can be gathered by
conducting polls across specific cross sections of the population, as the
Gallup Organization does
 Studies of political socialization—studying political
socialization, the process by which people gain their political attitudes and
opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting behavior
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Chapter 6, Section 4
The History of Voting Rights
 The Framers of the Constitution purposely left the power to set
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suffrage qualifications to each State.
Suffrage means the right to vote. Franchise is another term
with the same meaning.
The electorate is all of the people entitled to vote in a given
election.
Initially, the right to vote in America was limited to white male
property owners.
Today, the size of the American electorate is greater than 200
million people. Nearly all citizens at least 18 years of age can
qualify to vote.
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Chapter 6, Section 1
Extending
Suffrage
The expansion of the electorate to its present size
happened in five fairly distinct stages:
1. During the early 1800s, religious, property, and tax payment qualifications were
gradually eliminated.
2. The 15th Amendment (1870) was intended to end race-based voting requirements.
3. In 1920, the 19th Amendment prohibited the denial of the right to vote because of
sex.
4. The 1960s:
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 guaranteed the right to vote for minorities.
The 23rd Amendment (1961) granted citizens of the District of Columbia the right
to vote for presidential electors.
The 24th Amendment (1964) eliminated the poll tax.
5. The 26th Amendment (1971) lowered the voting age to 18.
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Chapter 6, Section 1
2000 Election
Political Participation
Do not take it lightly - it is a great responsibility