Transcript Public Opinion What is it?

Public Opinion
•What is it?
The distribution of individual preferences for or
evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or
institution within a specific population.
•Taking the Pulse of the People
•Intensity – the characteristic of public opinion
that measures how strongly people felt on an
issue.
•Latency – dormant attitudes that may be evoked
into action.
•Salience – opinions closely associated with the
lives of the individuals.
History of Public Opinion Polls
 Successes of Literary Digest from 1920-1932.
 Used straw polls to make predictions.
 Literary Digest was incorrect in 1936; error in sample.
 George Gallup made correct prediction.
 Gallup was a pioneer in scientific public opinion polls.
 Continues to be successful today.
Public Opinion
The proper wording and phrasing of the questions
are vitally important to producing reliable, objective
data.
Things to consider:
1. Appropriate
language and
vocabulary
2. Open-ended
versus closedended
3. Neutral wording
The Way You Ask the Question Matters
Public Opinion (continued)
•How do we get our Political Opinions and
Values? Through Political Socialization.
•Family – instills the basic attitudes that shape
future opinions. Family environment shapes
the attitudes of children.
•Schools – second important social institution
where children develop their political attitudes.
Schools teach an idealized view of the nation’s
slogans and symbols.
•Mass Media - More than two-thirds of Americans
report that they receive “all or most” of their
news from television.
•Other Influences – i.e. Religion, Occupation, Peers
Public Opinion
Public opinion is best thought of as
a. the will of the people
b. a diversity of opinion within a particular
population
c. media reflection of public attitudes
d. voter attitudes
Which of the following is likely to be most accurate?
a.
b.
c.
d.
A phone poll using randomly selected phone numbers
A poll of magazine subscribers.
Internet polls on political issues.
A poll of retired persons.
A national newsmagazine publishes an article on efforts
to restrict smoking in public places. Subsequently, the
magazine receives 1,500 letters commenting on the
article, with nearly two-thirds of the letters favoring
tougher restrictions on smoking in public. Would this
be an accurate reflection of public opinion on this
issue?
a. Yes, because the magazine has a national circulation
and the sample size is sufficiently large.
b.Not likely, because the sample is not random and
probably not an accurate reflection of public
opinion on the issue.
c. Not likely, because the sample size is too small.
d.Not likely, because the sample size is too large.
Public Opinion
The major force in the socialization of children
is
a.
b.
c.
d.
television
family
school
playmates
The most influential factor in forming the
attitudes of children is/are
a.
b.
c.
d.
intelligence
psychological and genetic traits
class and race
family and school
What is Public Opinion (continued)
•Stability and Change in Public Opinion
•Public Opinion and Public Policy
•Awareness and Interest
•Attentive public –
those citizens who
follow public affairs
carefully.
Knowledge Levels
Politics is not the major interest
of most Americans and as a
result, knowledge about the
political system is limited
Differing
Opinions
on Gay
Marriage
Participation: Translating Opinions
into Action
Voting – a form of conventional political participation.
Registration – system designed to reduce voter fraud
by limiting voting to those who have established
eligibility by submitting the proper form.
Motor Voter – “National Voter Registration Act”
signed by President Bill Clinton in 1993.
In an effort to make registration easier, states have
made registration forms available at motor vehicle
stations, schools, public buildings, and even
highway tollbooths.
Participation: Translating Opinions
into Action
 Turnout is the proportion of electorate who votes.
 States regulate voter eligibility.
 Voters are more educated and more affluent.
 Voters are likely to be middle-aged, women, and
white.
 The South traditionally has a lower turnout rate.
Why Is Turnout so Low?
 In 2008, 62 percent of eligible voters turned out.
 Most common reason for not voting is being too busy.
 Registration can also be an unclear process.
 Absentee voting can be difficult.
 There are a lot of elections.
 People are apathetic.
 Political parties have less influence than in earlier
years.
Voter Turnout in South vs. Non-South States
Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Primaries
Persons Reported Registered and Voted by State, 2010
Changes in Voting Eligibility Standards Since 1870
Year
Change
1870
Fifteenth Amendment forbade states from denying the right to
vote because of “race, color, or previous condition of
servitude.”
1920
Nineteenth Amendment gave women the right to vote.
1924
Congress granted Native Americans citizenship and voting
rights.
1961
Twenty-Third Amendment permitted District of Columbia
residents to vote in federal elections.
1964
Twenty-Fourth Amendment prohibited the use of poll taxes in
federal elections.
1965
Voting Rights Act removed restrictions that kept African Americans from voting.
1971
Twenty-Sixth Amendment extended the vote to citizens 18 and
older.
Ways to Improve Voter Turnout
 Make registration and voting easier.
- Make registration automatic
- Offer more options to vote
absentee, mail-in ballots,
electronic voting, online voting
 Make Election Day a holiday or hold it on a weekend.
 Strengthen political parties.
 Make voting compulsory.
Participation: Translating Opinions
into Action (continued)
A Comparison with other nations
Who Votes?
How Serious is Nonvoting?
A Comparative Perspective
Voter Turnout by Demographic Factors
Voter Turnout in Presidential and Midterm
Elections, 1960-2006
Why People Don’t Vote
How Serious is Nonvoting?
•
•
•
Concerns about “class bias”
Negative effect on Democratic candidates
May indicate approval of the status quo
An institutional barrier that blocks people
from voting is
a. distant voting booths
b. registration
c. unattractive candidates
d. lack of party competition
All of the following are true about voter
statistics except
a. men out-vote women by a large majority.
b. middle-aged people are more likely to vote than
younger people.
c. college-educated persons vote more than high
school graduates.
d. persons who are active in organized groups are
more likely to vote.
The group least likely to vote is
a. 18 to 24 year olds
b. blue collar workers
c. women
d. athletes
These college students feel responsible to vote and
line up on campus to fill out absentee ballots.
Voting Choices
•Voting on the Basis of Party
Party identification – an informal and
subjective affiliation with a political party that
most people acquire in childhood.
•Voting on the Basis of Candidates
Candidate appeal – how voters feel about a
candidate’s background, personality,
leadership ability, and other personal qualities.
•Voting on the Basis of Issues
While important, issues are not central to the
decision process as the other two.
Voters tend to vote against an incumbent if
a. the budget is out of balance
b. there is an issue conflict
c. their personal fortunes are declining
d. they have not implemented their campaign
promises.