Transcript What is public opinion?

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Public Opinion
What is public opinion?
The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs
about certain issues or officials.
• They are considered the most reliable indicator of what
the public is thinking.
Is Public Opinion Stable?
Depending on the issue, public opinion is more
or less stable.
• In the realm of foreign policy, public opinion is less
stable, especially on issues like war.
• On domestic issues, public opinion is more stable,
especially on social issues like abortion.
Why Is It Important to Poll the Public?
In a democracy, public opinion is part of the
“input” side of the governmental process.
• Inputs are the way in which citizens in a democracy tell
their elected officials what they want from
government. They include:
–
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Voting
Campaigning
Contacting Elected Officials
Protests
Does Public Opinion Matter?
Presidents are often the subject of public
opinion polls.
• Presidents with higher degrees of public support as
measured by public opinion polls are able to use that
support to leverage Congress to act in support of their
agendas.
– Example: President George W. Bush
» Post 9-11 approval high = Passage of USA PATRIOT Act
» Post Katrina approval low = Defeat of Immigration Reform
Act
Does Public Opinion Matter?
Approval Ratings of President George W. Bush
What is Most Commonly Measured
with Public Opinion Polls?
Efficacy
• The extent to which people believe their actions affect
the course of government
Political Trust
• The extent to which people believe the government
acts in their best interests
– Note that polls show that both have been declining over the
past 50 years, but patriotism has not declined.
The Use of Polls Historically
Scientific public opinion polls are a modern
invention.
The use of unscientific polls included:
• Elite Polls
– Measuring the opinion of those members of society in elite
classes only
• Straw Polls
– Ballot polls by nineteenth-century newspapers to predict the
outcome of elections.
Scientific Polls
Method of polling that provides
a fairly precise reading of
public opinion by using
random sampling.
• Random Sample Poll
– Method of selection that gives
everyone who might be selected
to participate in a poll an equal
chance to be included.
– Most popular is the Gallup Poll
In the 1930s George Gallup
developed a scientific
approach to polling, greatly
increasing its accuracy and
authority.
How Do Scientific Polls Work?
Scientific polls rely on a representative sample
of the group being polled.
• Each person in the group has the same chance of being
selected.
– Most nation-wide scientific polls include a minimum of 1000
people
How Are Samples Collected?
There are a variety of methods, including:
• In-person interviews
– Weaknesses
» Time-consuming
» Expensive
» Difficult to be truly random
• Random-dial telephone calls
– Weaknesses
» Some people don’t have phones
» Hard to get a “read” on what people are thinking over the
phone
» Cell phones
How Are Samples Collected?
Continued
• Call-in polls
– Weaknesses
» Not random
» Only those people who see the number can call
» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to
reply
• Internet polls
– Weaknesses
» Not random
» Only those people who visit the site will take the poll
» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to
reply
Are Internet Polls Reliable?
Many websites, especially
of news organizations, invite
participation in polls. How
reliable do you think the
results are?
How Are Samples Collected? Continued
• Letter polls
– Weaknesses
» Low response rate
» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to
reply
Which Type of Sample is
the Most Reliable?
Random-dial telephone calls.
Why?
• Truly random
• Instant response
• Best return rate
Presidential Election Polls
Tracking Polls
• Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same
sample size over a period of time, common during the
closing months of presidential elections.
Exit Polls
• Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after
exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the
election before the ballots are officially counted.
• Note: Both are used to try to predict the outcome of
elections before they take place.
Presidential Election Polls
Sequential editions
of the Orlando
Sentinel following
election day 2000
testify to the
confusion wrought by
news media’s calling
the election on the
basis of exit polls
and early returns,
which in this case
were misleading.
Other Types of Polls
Push Polls
• Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of
those being polled.
– Push polls are not scientific.
– They are often put out by a candidate’s campaign or a special
interest group.
– They often seem like objective public opinion polls, but
include misleading information about the candidate’s
opponent or the interest group’s opposition.
Errors in Polling
Confidence Intervals
• Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes
random error into account
Sampling Error (aka Margin of Error)
• Measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll
reported as a percentage.
Errors in Polling Continued
Question wording
• The way in which a question is worded can greatly
influence the answers given.
Limited Respondent Options
• Giving participants in the sample only the choice of two
or 3 answers, like “yes”, “no” or “I don’t know”.
Non-attitudes
• Sources of error in public opinion polls in which
individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are
unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it.
How Do Individuals Acquire Their Political
Opinions?
Socialization
• Impact and influence of one’s social
environment on the views and attitudes one
carries in life, a primary source of political
attitudes.
– Parents, friends, media, community, etc.
How Do Individuals Acquire Their Political
Opinions?
Other Factors Affecting Socialization
Generational Effects
• Effects on opinion from the era in which one lives.
Self-Interest
• Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being.
Rationality
• Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s selfinterest.
The Role of Elites in Public Opinion
Elites
• Group of people who may lead public opinion, such as
journalists, politicians, and policy makers.
Elite Theory
• Idea that public opinion is shaped by discourse among
elites and is a top-to-bottom process.
The Shape of Public Opinion
What roles do party identification and ideology
play in shaping public opinion?
• Party Identification
– Attachment or allegiance to a political party; partisanship.
» Conservatives are those people who tend to identify
themselves with the Republican Party
» Liberals are those people who tend to identify themselves
with Democratic Party
» Independents are those people who do not feel a sense
of identification with either of the two major political
parties.
The Shape of Public Opinion Independents in the Electorate
Shaping Public Opinion Continued
Party identification shapes political ideology.
• Political Ideology
– Set of consistent political beliefs.
The way in which we view politics is then seen
through a perceptual lens shaped by the set of
political beliefs.
• Perceptual Lens
– Ideological framework that shapes the way partisans view the
political world and process information.
Shaping Public Opinion –
Party Identification
Is Public Opinion Informed?
The public is generally uninformed about key
aspects of government.
• Only 10 percent of the public knows the name of the
Speaker of the House.
• Only about a third can name one U.S. Supreme Court
justice.
• Only about half of Americans know which party
controls Congress
• Fewer than half know the name of their own
congressional representative.
Does This Mean Public Opinion
is Uninformed?
Political Saliency
• Indication of importance and relevance of an issue to
an individual.
• Voters ARE relatively well-informed on issues that
matter to them.
• The public can learn about issues if they are made
salient through the media.
Voter Shortcuts
Low Information Rationality
• Idea that people do not need to have lots of
information to make good decisions.
Party Labels
• Using party labels to make decisions allows citizens to
make choices with a high degree of reliability without
having a high degree of knowledge on the issues.
What is Polarization?
Polarization
• Condition in which differences between parties
and/or the public are so stark that
disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and
controversy.
Political Polarization
in the United States
Is Congress Polarized?
Since 1975, Congress has become more
polarized.
• A look at the DW Nominate Scores , which are a record
of individual and roll-call votes in Congress starting with
the 1st Congress, shows that members of Congress are
voting more frequently with their party members than
they have in the past.
Is American Public Opinion Polarized?
Are Americans Polarized?
• On the surface, it may appear as though Americans are
polarized. The “red state/blue state” divide looks
evident on any map. But political scientists like Morris
Fiorina argue that America is not nearly as polarized as
the “map” might tell us.
• Fiorina and other scholars argue that Americans are by
and large “centrist” and the divide is more rural vs.
urban than red state vs. blue state.
Group Differences
How does membership in a group affect a
person’s public opinion?
• Socio-economic status
– Combined measure of occupation, education, income, wealth,
and relative social standing or lifestyle.
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Age
Religion
Race and Ethnicity
Education
Gender Gap
– Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and
women.
Group Differences - Religious Tradition and
Views on Immigrants
Group Differences - Percentage with “Some
College” Education
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Does public opinion affect public policy?
• American support for a policy often has an impact on
the success of that policy.
– Rally-around-the-flag effect
» Surge of public support for the president in times of
international crisis.
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Focus Questions
• How does public opinion influence public policy?
• In what ways are elected officials responsive to public
opinion? How responsive should they be?
• Is every citizen’s voice equal, or are some people more
influential? Why?
• How well does polling capture public opinion? Should polls
direct public policy?
• Does public opinion provide a gateway or a gate to
democracy?