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OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED SC 203 January 23, 2008 John Bush TECHNOLOGY UPDATE • Energy Sources/Conversion • Energy/Power Transmission • Energy Applications FOSSIL FUELS • • • • Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Carbon Sequestration GETTING RID OF CARBON DIOXIDE • • • • • • Disposal into space Storage in the ocean Fertilization of the ocean with iron Reaction with basalt Storage in forests Storage in soil as “biochar” GROWING DIESEL • Jatropha--an Indian weed – – – – – Needs little water Grows on poor soil Is not a food crop Seed oil makes excellent diesel fuel Estimated to be profitable at oil prices above $43/bbl • Algae – – – – Absorbs carbon dioxide effluent from power plants Yields oil suitable as diesel fuel and starch for ethanol Pilot demonstration in Arizona Scale up at Arizona Public service Four Corners Station CELLULOSE BASED ETHANOL • Bluefire Ethanol – First plant in Lancaster this year – Pilot plant in Izumi Japan • Coskata – Recent investment by GM – Pilot plant planned for 2008: Warrenville Illinois – One among several start-ups using bacterial processing TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY • Ground transport – Light duty vehicles – Trucks/buses/construction equipment – Rail • Air transport • Water transport LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES POWER TRAINS/POWER SOURCES • Power train – Mechanical – Electric – Hybrid • Power source – ICE: Otto, Diesel – Battery – Supercapacitor – Fuel cell: hydrogen/reformer LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES ENERGY SOURCE/INFRASTRUCTURE • Energy source – – – – – Fossil fuel Biofuel Hydrogen Electric grid Solar • Infrastructure – Energy sources – Energy distribution – Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance WHERE DO THESE STAND? AN UNOFFICIAL SCORECARD TS* • • Internal combustion – Gasoline/diesel fuel – Methane – Hydrogen – Biofuels +++ +++ +++ ++ Electric – Battery – Supercapacitor – Hydrogen fuel cell – Reformer fuel cell – Solar/hybrid ++ + + + +++ PI* +++ +++ + +++ +++ +++ ++ DI* +++ + o + + + o + ++ *TS = Technology status *PI = Energy production infrastructure *DI = Energy distribution infrastructure *VI = Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance infrastructure VI* +++ +++ ++ ++ ++ ++ o + ELECTRIC VEHICLES: PROJECT BETTER PLACE • Employs a new business model – Consumer buys the car – Consumer rents the battery—monthly fee based on usage – Networks of charging and exchange stations • Employs “proven” technologies – Lithium ion battery developed Renault and NEC • Highway 124 miles/charge (100?) • Lifetime 1500 charges • Top speed 70 mph – Renault-Nissan will make the car in Europe PROJECT BETTER PLACE & RENAULT/NISSAN/NEC • Starting a pilot program in Israel – – – – People drive less than 100 miles/day 90% of the time Tel Aviv: 150 charging stations and 2 swap stations Economics: $0.026/mile versus $0.32/mile Expect 500,000 charging stations and 100,000 cars on the road by 2010 (or maybe 20,000 by 2011!) • May extend the pilot to – Small countries: Denmark, Holland – Crowded cities: London, Paris, Singapore, New York – China? OTHER ALL ELECTRIC VEHICLES • Daimler Smart Car: all electric version by 2009 • Tesla Roadster: 2008 ($100,000) • Aptera Three Wheeler: 2008 ($30,000) • Phoenix Motor Cars Pick-up truck: 2008 DAIMLER SMART CAR TESLA APTERA PHOENIX MOTOR CARS PLUG-IN HYBRIDS (PHEVS) • Quantum Technologies/Fisker Karma luxury sedan: $80,000 2009 • GM/A123: Chevy Volt commercial by “late” 2010— “a stretch” • GM-Saturn: Concept car shown in Detroit • Ford: SUV in test with Southern California Edison • Toyota/Panasonic: commercial customers by 2010 FUEL CELL POWERED VEHICLES • Honda FCX Clarity: Sedan • GM Chevy Equinox: SUV consumer evaluation in 2008 • Ford Fusion 999: 200 mph sports car HONDA SOLAR HYDROGEN STATION HONDA HOME HYDROGEN STATION SUMMARY-- 2015 • ICEs using fossil fuels will dominate • ICEs using biofuels may still have to overcome inadequate fuel availability • Hybrid vehicles (plug-in) may form a significant part of the installed capacity • Fuel cell vehicles may still have to overcome – Limited life and high cost of fuel cells – Limited availability of hydrogen – Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience • All-electric vehicles may still have to overcome – – – – Limited range and high cost of batteries Unresolved safety issues Limited recharging sites Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience