Transcript ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT with Laurence Mee

Redesigning our seas
and coasts?
A tale of adaptive management
Prof Laurence Mee
Scottish Association for Marine Science
Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer
of coasts (especially fjords)
Slartibartfast: "Perhaps I'm old and
tired, but I think that the chances of
finding out what's actually going on
are so absurdly remote that the only
thing to do is to say, 'Hang the sense
of it,' and keep yourself busy. I'd much
rather be happy than right any day."
Arthur: "And are you?"
Slartibartfast: "Ah, no. (laughs) Well,
that's where it all falls down, of
course."
From Douglas Adams, A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
1. Changing perceptions
of seas and coasts
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Thousands of tons
Shifting
baselines
North Sea Catch, Cod
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Thousands of tons
Shifting
baselines
North Sea Catch, Cod
1,400
1,200
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A good
year!
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600
400
200
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Thousands of tons
Shifting
baselines
North Sea Catch, Cod
1,400
1,200
1,000
A bad
year!
800
600
400
200
0
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Thousands of tons
Shifting
baselines
North Sea Catch, Cod
1,400
1,200
1,000
A good
year?
800
600
400
200
0
2. Complexity
Competing demands for marine space
Non-fishing use
Fishing vessel tracks, 2002
and hosts protected wreck sites, it also supports a wealth of marine
industries utilising a small sea space. The inset map shows legally
permitted windf arm dev elopments, shipping, dredging and dredgedmaterial disposal sites, oil and gas dev elopments, pipelines and
cables and aggregate extraction, with f urther legislativ e controls
on activ ities by the MOD, recreational by elaws, port and harbour
by elaws and sea f isheries protection measures.
Legally Permitted Activities within the Irish Sea
The crowded
Irish Sea?
Fishery Protected Areas
Oil & Gas
EU Fishery Protected Areas
Hy drocarbon Field
Bass Nursery Areas
Areas under Licence
By elaws
Surf ace Installations
Fishery Order
(Ministerial & Regulating)
Wells
Conserv ation Designations
SACs
SPAs
MNRs
AoSPs (IOM)
SSSI/ASSIs
Ministry of Def ence
MOD Controlled Areas
MOD Danger Areas
Submarine Exercise Areas
Aggregate Extraction
Licensed Extraction Areas
Activ e Extraction Areas
Applications
Recreation
Pleasure Boat Exclusion Zone
Pleasure Boat Speed Restrictions
Archaeology
Protected Wrecks
Liv erpool Bay has numerous activ ities operating within this small area
of the Irish Sea. Not only is it protected f or its conserv ation f eatures
and hosts protected wreck sites, it also supports a wealth of marine
industries utilising a small sea space. The inset map shows legally
permitted windf arm dev elopments, shipping, dredging and dredgedmaterial disposal sites, oil and gas dev elopments, pipelines and
cables and aggregate extraction, with f urther legislativ e controls
on activ ities by the MOD, recreational by elaws, port and harbour
by elaws and sea f isheries protection measures.
Ports & Harbours
Harbour Jurisdictions
Shipping Measures
Traf f ic Separation Schemes
Areas to be Av oided
High Speed Craf t
Laden Tanker Instructions
Major Shipping Routes (unlegislated)
Windf arm Dev elopments
Round 1 & Round 2 Sites
Windf arm Exclusion Zones
Fishery Protected Areas
Hy drocarbon Field
Bass Nursery Areas
Areas under Licence
By elaws
Surf ace Installations
From the Irish Sea
Pilot study, 2005.
Fishery Order
(Ministerial & Regulating)
Conserv ation Designations
SACs
SPAs
MNRs
DTI Renewable Exclusion Zone (unlegislated)
AoSPs (IOM)
SSSI/ASSIs
Dredging
Disposal Sites
Dredged Sites (Capital & Maintenance)
Submarine Cables & Pipelines
Cables
Oil & Gas Pipeline
Oil & Gas
EU Fishery Protected Areas
Ministry of Def ence
MOD Controlled Areas
MOD Danger Areas
Submarine Exercise Areas
Aggregate Extraction
Licensed Extraction Areas
Activ e Extraction Areas
Applications
Recreation
Pleasure Boat Exclusion Zone
Pleasure Boat Speed Restrictions
Archaeology
Protected Wrecks
Wells
Ports & Harbours
Harbour Jurisdictions
Shipping Measures
Traf f ic Separation Schemes
Areas to be Av oided
High Speed Craf t
Laden Tanker Instructions
Major Shipping Routes (unlegislated)
Windf arm Dev elopments
Round 1 & Round 2 Sites
Windf arm Exclusion Zones
DTI Renewable Exclusion Zone (unlegislated)
Dredging
Disposal Sites
Dredged Sites (Capital & Maintenance)
Submarine Cables & Pipelines
Cables
Oil & Gas Pipeline
The UK’s Growing Marine Footprint
Key Social Developments
1850 - 1875
Land clearance, Industrial revolution,
sewerage
Rivers
Estuaries
Coastal Shelf
Deep Sea
Eutrophication
Chemical Pollution
Habitat loss
Overfishing
1875-1900.
Steam trawlers, Rail transport,
Refrigeration
1900 - 1925
Oil shipments, Chemical industry,
1925 - 1950
Radio communications, War,
Munitions dumping
1950 - 1975
Sewage treatment, Nuclear power,
Green revolution, Environment
Ministries
1975 - 2000
Aquaculture, Globalisation, Deep
water fishing, Environmental NGOs
2000 +
Global warming, Urban development,
Coastal squeeze
In 1858, so much sewage poured into the River Thames in London
that MPs could not work in the Houses of Parliament because of the
smell.
3. The Ecosystem Approach
A resource planning and
management approach that
recognizes the connections
between land, air, water and all
living things, including people,
their activities and institutions.
Definition from the Ministry of Natural Resources,
Canada
www.mnr.gov.on.ca/
Systems operate a varying scales and
are often unpredictable
DPSWR (DPSIR revisited)
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Social
system
Ecological
system
Policy
RESPONSE
options
Environmental
PRESSURES
Human
WELFARE
change
Environmental
STATE
changes
DPSWR - Where are the impacts?
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Social
system
Ecological
system
Policy
RESPONSE
options
Environmental
PRESSURES
Environmental
STATE
changes
Human
WELFARE
change
IMPACTS
DPSWR - External factors
External factors
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Policy
RESPONSE
options
Human
climate
change
Natural
system
variability
Environmental
PRESSURES
Human
WELFARE
change
Environmental
STATE
changes
“Wicked” and “Tame” Problems
“Tame” problem can
be solved by careful
rules-based or
consensus
management
First order
“fixes”
“Wicked” problem
involves moral
judgements and valuebased decisions:
governance.
Hard
choices
Clear
solutions
no clear
solution;
there will be
winners and
losers
Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and
coastal governance as a wicked problem
4. Adaptive management
Positive thinking for an uncertain future
ASSESSMENT
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
Methods
SETTING THE VISION
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
A measureable
aspirational goal for
the future
Methods
Emerging
Issues
SETTING THE VISION
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Methods
Emerging
Issues
DEFINING THE FIRST STEP
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Methods
Emerging
Issues
NECESSARY INDICATORS
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
Methods
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Emerging
Issues
Robust quantitative
system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators:
process, pressures,
societal & governance
NECESSARY INDICATORS
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
Methods
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Emerging
Issues
Robust quantitative
system state indicators
to measure impact
MODELS to
test
Operational indicators:
process, pressures,
societal & governance
European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems
North Sea conceptual model
European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems
North Sea Winners and Losers
•Winners include phytoplankton
and trophic dead-end species
such as jellyfish
•Winners also include
transitional waters (estuaries)
•Losers comprise seabirds that
depend on sand eels and small
pelagic fish.
•Bottom water (demersal) fish
species such as plaice, cod and
haddock are losers as are the
other animals and plants that
form sea-bed habitats
MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
Methods
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Emerging
Issues
Robust quantitative
system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators:
process, pressures,
societal & governance
COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
Methods
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Emerging
Issues
Robust quantitative
system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators:
process, pressures,
societal & governance
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Regulations and compliance
Fast feedback
loop
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION
Statutory Periodic Assessment
Baseline
studies
Methods
•State of the marine environment
• Pressures and their human causes
• Institutions, laws, policies, economic
instruments
EU Marine Strategy
Directive
Good Environmental
Status (2020)
Slow
feedback
loop
Regional/National Policy
Environmental targets
Spatial planning
Emerging
Issues
Robust quantitative
system state indicators
to measure impact
Operational indicators:
process, pressures,
societal & governance
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Status and trends
Regulations and compliance
Fast feedback
loop
Three reasons why adaptive
management can fail
• Lack of trust of stakeholders
• Poor monitoring and data
transparency
• Slipping baselines
Designing, deploying and assessing
artificial habitats – SAMS Artificial Reef
Rehabilitation
– creating a
new future to
repair some of
our mistakes
5. Conclusions
• No going back; we can only be stewards of the future
• Our perceptions of the marine environment and values
are critically important for its management
• Complexity is difficult to grasp, whether a scientist or a
decision maker
• Let’s stop talking about the “low hanging fruits”, the easy
“win-win solutions” and focus on the wicked problems
• Adaptive management is one towards an ecosystem
approach but there are pitfalls and risks.