Transcript Irregular warfare

Irregular warfare
What are the trends ? what is the threat ? Is this war ?
Irregular warfare :
War & Warfare
Regular/
Conventional
Irregular
A violent struggle among state and
non state actors for legitimacy and
influence over the relevant
populations.
Irregular warfare favors indirect and
asymmetrical approaches, though it
may employ the full range of military
and other capacities, in order to
erode an adversary´s power,
influence, and will. Also called IW .
(JP I-02).
Clausewitz “on War”
in irregular conflicts ?
P
P
Trinity
The strategic
Center of Gravity
is the PEOPLE
Figure from NATO AJP 3.4.4.
NATO definition IW activities
War & Warfare
Irregular activities ;
?
Regular/
Conventional
Consists of three groups of
activities;
Irregular
?
1) Insurgency,
2) Terrorism,
3) Other irregular activities
such as
a) Criminality,
b) Disorder,
c) Piracy
AJP 3.4.4. (p 7) 2008
War & Warfare
Regular/
Conventional
Irregular
Unconventional warfare — “A broad
spectrum of military and paramilitary
operations, normally of long duration,
predominantly conducted through, with, or
by indigenous or surrogate forces who
are organized, trained, equipped, supported,
and directed in varying degrees by an
external source. It includes, but is not limited
to, guerrilla warfare, subversion, sabotage,
intelligence activities, and unconventional
assisted recovery”. Also called UW.
(JP 1-02).
“Operations conducted by, with, or through
irregular forces in support of a resistance
movement, an insurgency, or conventional
military operations”.
FM 3-05.201 (S/NF) Special Forces
Unconventional Warfare (U) 28 sept 2007
and in FM 3-05.130 30 Sept 2008
UW
Joint operating concept relationships (US)
Figure 1-3. Joint operating concept relationships
Chapter 1 p.7 U.S. A FM 3-05.130 Unconventional Warfare 30 sept 2008
This publication is available at Army Knowledge Online (www.us.army.mil) and General Dennis J. Reimer Training and
Doctrine Digital Library at (www.train.army.mil).
The constituent activities of IW
•􀁺 Insurgency.
•􀁺 COIN.
•􀁺 UW.
•􀁺 Terrorism.
•􀁺 CT.
•􀁺 FID.
•􀁺 Stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations.
•􀁺 Strategic communication (SC).
•􀁺 PSYOP.
•􀁺 Civil-military operations (CMO).
•􀁺 Information operations (IO).
•􀁺 Intelligence and counterintelligence (CI) activities.
•􀁺 Transnational criminal activities, including narco-trafficking, illicit arms
dealing, and illegal financial transactions that support or sustain IW.
•􀁺 Law enforcement activities focused on countering irregular adversaries.
Konfliktens ekosystem
Insatsområdet
Öppna/porösa gränser
Landets regering mellan system
Allierade
GO
Utländska
frivilliga
Utrustning,
vapen och am
Privata
Propaganda
Regeringens Internationell Säkerhetsarmé
styrkor
Media
Terrorist
Local
NGOs
celler
media
Etniskt baserad Landets polis
IO
milis
Utbildade/radikaliserade
Smugglare
Affärsrörelser
“soldater”
Finansiering
Beväpnad
Grupp A
Beväpnad
Grupp B
Flyktingar
Maffia
Gränsinfiltratörer
Etnisk grupp
Sympati och stöd
Stam
Stam
Klan
Stambaserad
milis
Flyktingar / DPs
Other conceptions
Three Block War
4th Generation Warfare
Low Intensity Conflict
Unrestricted Warfare
Other conceptions
Three Block War
A peculiar situation in IW
4th Generation Warfare
Very much the same as IW
Low Intensity Conflict
Can also be a stalemate in a
regular conflict (Korea?)
Unrestricted Warfare
Very developed
unconventional
warfare wich uses all
availiable means. Can
be interstate.
Other problems in IW
Combatants ?
And another problem
Western art of war is since the
Greeks and Romans fixed on a
decisive military victory
Who won the
battle ?
Who is the
winner ?
Who admits
he lossed ?
Triumph !
Insurgency ;
War & Warfare
?
Regular/
Conventional
Irregular
?
“An organized movement aimed at the overthrow
of a constituted government through the use of
subversion and armed conflict”.
(JP I-02) FM 3-24 07.
“The actions of a minority group within a state who
are intent on forcing political change by means of a
mixture of subversion, propaganda and military
pressure aiming to persuade or intimidate the
broad mass of people to accept such a change”.
(UK COIN Doctrine 07.)
“An organized ideologically motivated group or
movement that seeks political change in a region,
focused on persuading or coercing the population
of a region through violence, subversion and
propaganda”. (AJP 3.4.4 2008)
Insurgency
Violent (armed) insurgeny
Non violent insurgency
Gandhi´s
insurgency with
non voilence
Insurgency OPS in
Northern Afghanistan
ANA
Insurgent
s
ISA
F
NG
O
GOA
UN
People
ANP
OEF
The link between Terrorism and
Insurgency
”Just as Guerilla warfare
transforms to regular
warfare…….
…..does terrorism transform
into insurgency”
(The battle of Algers)
If it has that purpose
Insurgencies – some exampels
Successfull
Not successfull
Indien
Filipinerna
Algeriet (1960)
Algeriet (1953-58)
Nicaragua
Malaysia
Haiti
Nordirland
Insurgency and Terrorism
Armed insurgency = armed poltical campain
Terrorism
= armed political communication
Terrorism
Politically motivated violence
perpetrated against noncombatant
targets by subnational groups or
clandestine agents, usually intended to
influence an audience (US State Dept.)
Terrorism
Politically motivated violence
perpetrated against noncombatant
targets by subnational groups or
clandestine agents, usually intended to
influence an audience (US State Dept.)
The unlawful use or threatened use of
force or violence against individuals or
property in an attempt to coerce or
intimidate governments or societies to
achieve political, religious or ideological
objectives. (Nato)
Domestic Versus
Transnational
• Domestic terrorism is homegrown and home
directed, with consequences for just the venue
country, its institutions, citizens, property, and
policies. The perpetrators, victims, and audience
are all from the host country.
For example: IRA, ETA, Shining Path
Domestic Versus
Transnational
• Domestic terrorism is homegrown and home
directed, with consequences for just the venue
country, its institutions, citizens, property, and
policies. The perpetrators, victims, and audience
are all from the host country.
• When a terrorist act has ramifications that
transcend a national boundary, it is an instance of
transnational terrorism. Examples include 9/11,
3/11, and kidnapping of foreign workers in Iraq.
• Examples: AlQaida, RAF, Lashkar-e-Taiba
Primitive war
Oriental warfare
WAR
Irregular
warfare
Terrorism
Insurgency
Western ways of war
Regular
warfare
Partisan war
Guerilla war
Stateterrorism
Counterinsurgency - COIN
COIN ?
War & Warfare
?
Regular/
Conventional
Irregular
?
“Those military, paramilitary, political,
economic, psychological, and civic actions
taken by a government to defeat
insurgency”. (JP I-02) FM 3-24 and in UK
COIN doctrine 07
AJP 3.4.4 08 ; “ The set of political,
economical, social, military, law
enforcement, civil and psychological
activities required to defeat insurgency”.
AJP 3.4.4 uses this definition that is not in AAP 6.
AAP 6. “ Those military, paramilitary,
political, economic, psychological and civil
actions taken to defeat insurgency”.
Timefactor in COIN
Level of
Violence
Average duration 12 yrs
Time
Stage
Security Force Roles
Proto
Police
Small-scale
Police backed by Local Military
Probability of COIN Success
> 90%
Large-scale
Local Military
Full-blown with External Support
Local & Foreign Militaries
~ 50%
If an insurgency is supported by another state it
has a bigger chance in succeeding
16
Won by Gov’t
Number of Insurgencies
14
Draw
12
Lost by Gov’t
10
8
6
4
2
0
From States
From Non-State Actors
External Support
None
COIN in Afghanistan
ISAF together with
coalition forces is
conducting a COIN
operation in
Afghanistan and
SWEDEN participate
in the Campaign!
To succeed in Irregular Warfare
It´s hard to coordinate many countries different
agencies from outside and some NGO´s refuse
DIME+S
Land X
Land Y
Land Z
NGO´s
Failing state
with insurgency
Coordination is best through a HN government !
It also shows the people it can govern !
DIME+S
Land X
Land Y
HN
Gov
Second
effect:
Unified
effect
Our gov. is
able !!
Land Z
NGO´s
Failing state
with insurgency
Attitude
Influence
Low
High
Attitude
Co-operate
Influence
Low
High
Attitude
Inform
Co-operate
Influence
Low
High
Attitude
Inform
Co-operate
Monitor
Influence
Low
High
Attitude
Inform
Monitor
Co-operate
Influence
Influence
Low
High
Attitude
Inform
(support)
Co-operate
(inhance)
Monitor
(contain)
Influence
(defeat)
Influence
Low
High
Attributes of COIN
• Political primacy; a clear political objective
• The struggle against insurgency is for the population,
not against the population
• Relevance of legitimacy
• Intelligence and information are crucial for success
• Neutralising insurgency and isolating it from any
support
• Long-term planning and preparing for the campaign
• Establishing a secured environment and acting within
the law is essential
• Transfer leading role to the local forces
• Adapting the plan to current conditions. Learn and adapt
AJP 3.3.4 p 47
Discussion
Is it doctrine to make a definition of irregular warfare ?
If so – why is it important ?
Does Georgia have definitions on irregular warfare ? How are they ?