Transcript History of the Psychology of Warfare

Disclaimer
• The opinions expressed are those of the
speaker and do not reflect opinions of any
other person or agency
WWII: Total War
Total Propaganda
“East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”
Asians Initially Welcomed Japanese as Liberators
• Why?
• Tajfel et al. (1971
• Sherif (1961)
Psych. Effects of Air War…
One Example: Doolittle Raid
Variable Psych. Effects of Prolonged Aerial Bombing
Nazis – Über Propaganda
Psychological Explanations for
Rise of Hitler?...
Nissbett & Wilson (1977)
• Halo Effect?
(Psych. Explanations for Rise Nazism, contin.)
“Availability Bias/Cascade”
Youth Propaganda:
Bandura(1961)
• Modeling Aggression
Obedience: The Holocaust
• How could this happen?
• Milgram (1963): Obedience To Authority
Conformity Without Explicit Orders
Autokinetic Study (Sherif, 1935)
Conformity: Asch (1952)
Social Influence
Return to Nazis WWII
• Summary of Psych. Reasons for Rise of
Nazism…
– Social Crisis / Uncertainty
– Hitler Halo Effect
– Obedience to Authority
– Social Conformity
– Modeled Aggression
– Power Blunts Empathy / Compassion
• And of course, social identity and out-group bias
Leaving Nazi Psych…
U.S. Pacific Theater, Initial Morale
• Initial U.S. deception, continued losses
• Japanese militarism:
• Both Sides: Dehuminization of Out-group
The Most Famous War Picture Ever…
…Was Propaganda!
WW2: Outcomes
• Most Important Long-Term Developments
– Shift of Power Struggle to U.S. vs. USSR
– Massive influx of Jewish refugees into Palestine
The Cold War (1946-1991):
The World Psych War I
(“Cold” part now, “hot spots” like Korea & Vietnam later)
• Started Early: Hiroshima as Psych. Warfare against
Soviets?
• Back into the shadows (KGB vs. CIA)
• Iron Curtain
• Further into the strategic domain
• Low Intensity Conflicts
• Space Race
• The Great Communicator & ‘Star Wars’
Hot Parts of Cold War:
Part 1: Korea (1950-53)
• Retreat and Stalemate
• “Wash Brain”
• MK Ultra
Back To Hot Parts of Cold War:
Part 2: Vietnam
• U.S. Involved 1965-1975
• ‘The Uncensored War’
• Containment: Effect on Later Strategy?
The Good Guys?
•Psychology
•Cognitive Dissonance
•Festinger & Carlsmith (1959)
•My Lai (event ‘68, story ’69)
Vietnam: Tet Offensive (1968)
• U.S. won ground war
• Viet Cong won media war
• U.S. lost resolve
Yom Kippur War: Egyptian Surprise (1973)
• Psychology: Confirmation Bias Again!
Fast Forward to Israel, 2009
•No approach has worked completely, not Hard Line, Soft Line, or Status
Quo (do nothing)
NO EASY SOLUTION FOR ISRAEL…
Question for U.S. “Realpolitik:”
• What is our strategic/tactical interest in Israel?
Leaving Modern Israel…
• Returning you to the 1970s now…
Afghanistan (1978-1988)
• Holy War
• All-out Soviet reaction
• U.S. & Taliban both claimed the victory
• Psychology: Internal Attribution Tendency?
• The biggest factors were situational
Desert Storm (1990-91)
• Famously successful Psyops
Public Impression
• Intnl. Coalition; Muslim Countries Behind Us
• Technological dominance
• It’s over already?
Somalia (1993)
• U.S. attack killing 73 clan elders
• Battle of Mogadishu…
•Led to change in U.S. Policy
Lect 2:
Focus on Terrorism
Starting from beginning…
Proto-Terrorism
• Zealots – Sicarri 1st century BC
• Muslim Assassins (1090 – 1256)
Breakup of Empire /
Decolonization
• Terrorists seek to provoke regime change
or popular revolt.
Breakup of Empire
• Russian Rise of Terrorism (1904-07)
Terrorism Triggers World War I
Algeria: 1954 - 1961
•Modern Terrorism
•All-out Counter-Terrorism
Iran Hostage Crisis (1979-81)
• U.S. seen as weak
• Rise of Theocratic anti-U.S. groups
• Fall of Jimmy Carter, Rise of Ronald Reagan
Modern trends in terrorism
• Fewer attacks
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)
21st Century War (2001)
Global Struggle for ‘moral high ground’
• Twin Towers – “center of world trade”
• Pentagon: symbol of military power
Psych. Problems w/ this New War:
First, What Do We Call It?
• Who are we fighting?
• When are we done?
• When are we in danger?
• How much danger? (human factors)
• Definitions of Terrorism Vary
Psychological Media Impacts
• Media exposure to violence influences
– Opinion
– Attitude
– Emotional State
MEDIA BIAS?
• False Consensus Bias (Projection Bias)
– Ross, Green, & House (1977)
Afghanistan War (2001-present)
‘The Partnership of Nations is Here to Help You’
Demonizing the Taliban & bin Laden
Iraq:
nd
2
Gulf War (2003present)
Psychological See-Saw…
• Sheehan, 2006:
– Neutralizing an enemy leader
helps
Where are the WMD? (Oct 2003)
Kidnappings start 2004
(These hurt support)
Does Terrorism Work?
• E.g., Riessen, 2006
Aren’t We the The Good Guys?
Haditha, Aug. ‘05
Abu Ghraib, April ‘04
Stanford Prison Study
Zimbardo (1971)