Transcript Bodnar_Rhode

The impact of media access
on democracy
Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode
Hypothesis
H0: There is no relationship between
media access and levels of democracy
 H1: There is a relationship between media
access and democracy
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We predict a moderate positive relationship
between media access and democracy.
Hypothesis II
H0: There is no relationship between
media access and democracy in China
 H1: There is a relationship between media
access and democracy in China

We predict a moderate negative relationship
between media access and democracy in
China
Importance to Policy Analysis
Democracy promotion key part of U.S.
Foreign Policy
 Conclusive findings could suggest
alternative foreign policy strategies
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Literature Review
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Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy:
Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud?
McChesney – Rich Media, Poor Democracy
Kalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for Dictators
Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent!
Franda, Marcus – Launching into Cyberspace
Lynch, David – After the Propaganda State
Defining Our Variables
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Democracy: We created a variable to represent democracy by taking the raw data
scores from Freedom House for a states Political and Civil Liberties.
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Each state was given between 1 and 60 points (60 being the most free) for Civil Liberties
Each state was given between 1 and 40 points (40 being the most free) for Political Liberties
Our Data for democracy therefore ranges from 1 (being the absolute least free) to 100 (being
the most free possible)
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Internet Access: We used the World Bank’s World Development Indicators to create
a variable measuring Internet Users per 1000 people.
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Media Access: We attempted to gather data regarding Newspapers per capita and
the percentage of Televisions per household from the World Development Indicators,
but the data was sparse and lacking in several areas.
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Censorship: We used the Freedom House Freedom of the Press indicators to create
a censorship scale ranging from 1(no censorship at all) to 100 (complete censorship).
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GDP Per Capita: We used World Bank Data to compile a list of GDP per capita for
each nation using base year 2000.
Variable Interaction
Datasets
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WDI datasets
Newspapers per capita
 % of households with TV
 Internet users pr. 1000 capita
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Freedom House raw data scores for
Freedom of the press
 Democracy (CL and PR)
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World.sav
 CIA World Factbook
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Methodology
Unit of Analysis: Nations
 Research Design: Cross Sectional
 Multiple Regression Analysis
 Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per
Capita
 Qualitative research on China, with small
quantitative comparison
 N = 110
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Distribution of Internet access
Distribution of TV access
Regression Results – Internet
Access
Regression Results Graphically
Freedom House Aggregate of Raw Political and Civil
Liberty Scores
100
80
60
40
20
R Sq Linear = 0.397
0
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
The Number of Internet Users per 1000 people
800.00
Regression with control for GDP
Per Capita
Regression with control for GDP
Per Capita and Censorship
Case Study of China
Case Study of China
Freedom House
7
6
5
4
Freedom House
3
2
1
0
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
China Case Study
GDP Per Capita
30000
25000
20000
GDP Per Capita
15000
10000
5000
0
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
China Case Study
Censorship Ranking
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Internet Users per 1000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
0
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Case Study – Qualitative Analysis
Has the Internet fostered Democracy in
China?
 Chinese Government Tactics
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Censorship – Great Firewall of China
 Corporate Help – Google, Yahoo, Wikipedia
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Dissidents
 Short timeframe
 Ambiguous Results
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Problems with data
Countries with 100 can’t improve
democratically within FH rankings
 Internet Disproportionately weighted
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No data for newspapers or cell phones
 Small N for TV access
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Censorship a very ambiguous and biased
concept. No measurement for self
censorship
Conclusions
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Accept H0: No relationship on a global level
Previous studies disguised the type of information
provided
Very Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneity
Short term vs. long term effect
Accept H0: No clear uniform relationship
Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than
mainland China
Government has been very efficient in blocking
damaging information to the general public while
dissidents use media internally