Transcript Tammy`s summary

Scientific Needs for Weather
• Weather Observations, Forecasts and Warnings
• Weather Prediction
• QPF
• Landfalling Hurricanes
• Coastal Meteorology
• Mountain Meteorology
• Urban Meteorology
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 1
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Scientific needs
 Convective storms
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Deep convective downdraft processes
Cloud microphysical processes
Cloud ice properties
Entrainment
Land-surface-atmosphere interactions
 Atmospheric electricity
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 2
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Scientific needs
 Extratropical cyclones
 Understand mesoscale phenomena
 Gravity waves
 Slantwise convection
 Development and evolution of frontal cyclones
 Potential vorticity
 Role of tropopause in atmospheric dynamics
 Aviation weather
 Better understanding of mesoscale phenomena
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Thunderstorms
Fronts
Clear-air turbulence
Wind shear
Icing
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 3
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Scientific needs
 Modeling fire weather
 Seasonal climate prediction
 Low-frequency oscillations
 Influence of hurricanes on low-frequency coupled atmosphere-ocean and
atmosphere-land surface
 External influences, such as volcanoes and solar output
 Data assimilation techniques for operational datasets
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 4
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Observational needs
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Maintain operational rawinsonde network
Improved measurements of temperature, liquid and ice in cloud
Microphysical measurements, particularly within ice clouds
Improved water vapor measurements
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WVSS on commercial aircraft
GPS
DIAL
Raman lidars
Radiosondes
Dropsondes
Infrared spectrometers
Microwave radiometers
Unpiloted aircraft
Satellite radiances
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 5
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Observational needs
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Measurements of the maritime atmosphere
Ocean fluxes
Global observing systems
Targeted, adaptive observations
Better observations over the mountainous West
 Wind profilers
 Wind and temperature profiles upwind
 Enhanced mesoscale observations
Weather Observations and
Forecasts and Warnings - 6
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and
Schlatter 1996)
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Observational needs
 Better observations over the eastern N. Pacific
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Profiles of wind, temperature and humidity
GOES rapid scan
Dropsondes from commercial or military aircraft
Altitude-controlled balloons
Unpiloted aircraft
Buoys
Profilers on buoys
Satellite radiometric measurements
 Moisture profiles combined with wind measurements
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WVSS on commercial aircraft
GPS techniques
Eye-safe Raman lidars
Fourier transform infrared radiometry (like AERIs)
Wind profilers
WSR-88D radars
Weather Observations and Forecasts
and Warnings - 7
(Emanuel et al. 1995 and Dabberdt and Schlatter 1996)
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Observational needs
 Better measurements for initial conditions
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Surface temperature and albedo
Soil classification
Soil moisture
Snow distribution
Vegetation
SST
Sea ice distribution
Wave state
Ocean color for tracking currents
Airborne radars for process studies
Aircraft in-situ measurements for downdraft process studies
Polarimetric radars for QPF
Bistatic radars
Joint radar and lightning measurements
Ultimate objective
 Benefit to society
Weather Prediction
(Emanuel et al. 1997)
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Scientific needs
 Physical mechanisms of rapidly growing weather systems
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Observational needs
 Observations in data sparse regions
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Automated rawinsondes
Ship measurements
Profilers on ships
Moored and drifting buoys
ACARS
Piloted and unpiloted aircraft
Automated floating devices
Passive satellite measurements
Global winds derived from sequential satellite imagery
Sea-surface winds from scatterometers
GPS soundings of temperature and moisture
Lidar wind measurements from satellite
Ultimate objective
 Benefit to society
QPF - 1
(Fritsch et al. 1998)
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Scientific needs
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Process and climatological studies
New design for data-gathering strategies for model initialization
Define probabilistic framework for precipitation forecasting and verification
Development of advanced ensemble techniques
Better understanding of storm lifecycle, especially MCCs
Better understanding of cloud microphysics
PV anomalies
Surface boundaries
Orographic influence
Improved precipitation estimates in 4DDA
Assimilate WSR-88D
Forecast validation
Land-surface-atmosphere interactions
QPF - 2
(Fritsch et al. 1998)
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Observational needs
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Improved accuracy and resolution of precipitation observing system
Mobile radiosondes
Portable lidars
Mobile radiometers
Improved moisture measurements
Stability profiles
In situ aircraft observations
Land surface measurements
Polarimetric radars
Satellite estimates
Rain gauges
Ultimate objective
 Benefit to citizens, governments, agriculture and businesses
 “Precipitation is the most important atmospheric variable to forecast”
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones - 1
(Marks and Shay 1998 and Emanuel et al. 1995)
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Scientific needs – Improve physical understanding and provide better
initial conditions
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Hurricane motion – increased skill
Intensity change – poor skill
Atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers
Air-sea coupling mechanisms
Tropical cyclogenesis
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones - 2
(Marks and Shay 1998 and Emanuel et al. 1995 and
Rotunno et al. 1996)
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Observational needs
 Mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system, including:
 Satellites
 Satellite-borne sensors
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Sea surface scatterometers
Special Sensor Microwave Imager
Passive water vapor measurements
Active radar
Active lidar
Piloted and unpiloted aircraft from boundary layer to 20 km
Expendables from aircraft
Fixed and mobile coastal platforms
Moored and drifting platforms
Expendable bathythermographs
Ultimate objective
 Real-time analyses of storm surge, winds and rain
 Improve warnings
 Provide local areas with info before, during and after landfall
Coastal Meteorology and Oceanography - 1
(Rotunno et al. 1996 and Emanuel et al. 1995)
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Scientific needs
 Coastal weather prediction
 Air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in areas of mesoscale variability
and at high wind speeds
 Improved air-sea models of coastal zones
 Understanding sea ice formation
 Coastal flash flood forecasting
 Polar lows
Coastal Meteorology and Oceanography - 2
(Rotunno et al. 1996 and Emanuel et al. 1995)
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Observational needs
 Measurements in ABL and upper-ocean mixed layer
 Measurements of air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in presence of ice
formation
 Onshore and offshore profilers
 Satellite data of
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Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI)
Ocean wave spectra and winds from scatterometers and SARs
Precipitation
Snow cover
Sea ice coverage and thickness
TPW
SST
Coastal Meteorology and Oceanography - 3
(Rotunno et al. 1996 and Emanuel et al. 1995)
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Observational needs
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Depth of thermocline
UAVs over oceans from boundary layer to upper levels
Moored and drifting buoys measuring ocean fluxes
Radars
Upper ocean current sensors
Minimeteorological drifters
Polar measurements of humidity and radiative fluxes
Ultimate objective
 4-D VAR
 Improved forecasts for more than 50% of US population
Mountain Meteorology - 1
(Smith et al. 1997 and Emanuel et al. 1995 and
Dabberdt and Schlatter 1996)
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Scientific needs
 Modeling topographic circulations
 Rocky Mountain lee-side phenomena
 Lee-side cyclogenesis
 Cold air outbreaks
 MCSs
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Trapping of cold air in basins and valleys
Orographic precipitation and flash floods
Generation of PV over mountains
Collective and multiscale effects of complex terrain (continuum of scales)
Mountain Meteorology - 2
(Smith et al. 1997)
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Observational needs
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WSR-88Ds
Polarimetric radars
Profilers and RASS
Doppler lidars
3-D, time-varying observations of multiscale orographic flows
Satellite sensors
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Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)
Sun-glint observations
Visible imagery
Water vapor imagery
Sounding capabilities
 GPS and sounding combinations to get temperature and water vapor profiles
 Global wind measurements
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Ultimate objective
 Benefit to society
Urban Weather - 1
(Dabberdt et al. 2000)
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Scientific needs
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Impacts of visibility and icing on transportation
Winter storms
Convective storms
Lightning
Air quality and toxic releases
Integrate multiple datasets into models
Explicit use of cloud-resolving models
Inadvertant urban convective storm modification
Forecast uncertainty quantification
Urban Weather - 2
(Dabberdt et al. 2000)
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Observational needs
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Detection of low-visibility and icing conditions
Radar precipitation estimates in winter regimes
Location of mixed-phase precipitation
Quantitative forecasts of frozen/freezing precipitation
GPS integrated precipitable water and refractive index profiles
ACARS in-situ measurements
Boundary layer winds, stability and convergence lines
Ultimate objective
 Benefit to society living in urban areas