Transcript the influence of rainfall patterns on human settlement in uganda. by

CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR
OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND REMOTE
SENSING TECHNOLOGIES TO THE
ACCURACY OF METEOROLOGICAL
FORECASTS
Bataze James and Khalid Muwembe
Department of Meteorology
P. o . Box 7025,
Kampala - Uganda
Email: [email protected]
Introduction:

Observations are the bedrock of weather
forecasting as these records help to keep track
of the weather changes.

For centuries people have made observations
and forecast the weather using observed
patterns of events on both land and sea surfaces
plus signs in the atmosphere

This ancient and primitive methods of
forecasting weather not only misled the
forecasters of those days but also produced
inaccurate forecasts, as none of the weather
conditions from the upper levels of the
Introduction CONT…

Until the middle of the 17th Century, very little
was known about the physical characteristics of
the atmosphere above the surface. People knew
that it got colder with height but not until the
invention of the barometer and thermometer
was it possible to make any measurements.

The atmospheric disturbances are key
determinant to an accurate forecast, hence a
good knowledge of the weather conditions in the
upper levels of the atmosphere greatly affect
what happens at the surface of the Earth.
Introduction CONT…
The quality of meteorological forecasts issued
out have been improving since the beginning of
the upper air observing systems using pilot
balloons with radiosondes attached, aircrafts,
wind profilers and remote sensing technologies
of satellites and radar..
 Also the prediction potential of weather
forecasters was enhanced by the inception of
remote sensing technologies by use of
meteorological satellites and radars

Introduction CONT…

From the observing system experiments carried out at
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) to assess the relative contribution from various
terrestrial observing systems to the global Numerical
Weather Prediction,

It was found out that radiosondes, aircraft observations,
wind profilers, satellites and radars provide vital
information used in the making of an accurate
meteorological forecast( Jean-Noelthepaut and Graeme
Kelly 2007, ) .
Introduction
CONT…

According to research carried out so far upper
air observing system and remote sensing
technology have been found to be the most
effective observing systems in the safeguarding
of life and property through accurate forecasting
and prediction) www.eohandbook.com).

It enables the detection, tracking, monitoring
and giving warnings of severe weather
phenomena such as local storms, tornadoes,
tropical cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, volcanic
eruptions, tsunamis and many others that
destroy life and property.( EO Handbook of
observations
Problem statement

Of recent there has been debate among
meteorologists and other climate scientists about
the contribution of upper air observing systems
and remote sensing technologies in the weather
forecasting.
Objectives of the study

The main objective of this study was to
investigate the contribution of upper air
observing systems and remote sensing
technologies in the preparation of an accurate
meteorological forecast.
Study Area:

The study area for this research is the evolution
of observing systems and weather forecasting,
that have been used for many centuries to
forecast weather.

Right from ancient times people have been
observing and trying to forecast weather
informally and formally, and in 650 BC, the
Babylonians predicted the weather from cloud
patterns as well as astrology.
Study Area contd….

In about 340 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in
meteorologica, and later Theophrastus compiled a book
on weather forecasting called the book of signs.

At around 300BC the Chinese and Indian astronomers
developed weather prediction methods.

Later in 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya’s Nabatean Agriculture
discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric
changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations;
signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases;
and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.
Study Area contd….

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually
relied on observed patterns of events, termed as
pattern recognition, for example it might be
observed that if the sunset was particularly red,
the following day often brought fair weather

In Europe upper air observation began as early
as 1749 with the use of a kite, the kites carried
aloft meteorological instruments or
“meteorographs “ that recorded pressure,
temperature, and relative humidity data on a
clock driven chart recorder.
Study Area contd….
And in 1780`s with the invention of hot air
balloon in France, it enabled scientists to ascend
aloft taking with them more weather
instruments to investigate the structure and
chemistry of upper atmosphere.
 How ever the use of kites and hot air balloons
had several disadvantages such as the average
altitude was low, data could not be readily
available for weather forecasting, observations
could only be taken in good weather, and there
was danger of the kite breaking away and
endangering lives and property

Study Area contd….
In 1920`s saw the advent of aircrafts being used
for upper air observations and carrying of
meteographs
 The inability of the kites, balloons and aircrafts
to operate in all weather and provide data in real
time helped foster the development for the radio
transmission of upper air data.
 In the early 1930`s the first unmanned
balloons carrying radio mateorographs or
radiosondes started being flown in the
stratosphere to carry out observations of upper
air atmosphere.

Study Area contd….


With more advances in upper-air observing technology
saw the development of remote- sensing observing
systems such as satellites, radars, wind profilers plus the
placement of temperature and water vapour sensors on
commercial aircraft .
In the late 1950`s saw the launching of the of the first
satellite, but the first satellite completely dedicated to
satellite meteorology called TIROS ( Television and
Infrared Observational Satellite) was launched on 1st
April 1960, and this brought a new chapter in upper-air
observations because of their almost global coverage. .
Study Area contd….


Satellites also provide data on cloud development,
information on temperatures at the surface and cloud
tops,
Currently satellite systems monitor the evolution and
impact of El Nino episodes, natural droughts, vegetations
cycles and mappings, the ozone hole, solar fluctuations,
changes in mountain snow cover, sea ice sheets, sea
surface temperatures, floods, forest fires, deforestations,
coastal zones, urban development, volcanic eruptions,
plate motions and more(observation of climate by earth
orbiting satellites –(CEOS EO Handbook on Observations.
www.eohandbook.com).
Study Area contd….
 A good example of how satellites can help to
monitor volcanic eruptions was in April 2010
when it was possible to track the movement of
ash clouds from the Icelandic volcano
Eyjafjallajökull, and meteorological offices were
able to give accurate warnings and forecasts to
the aviation industry.
Data source:

The source of data for this research has been
achieves of meteorological information, papers
written by other researchers, reports, manuals
and internet.
Earth Observing Systems and
Networks:
Current Earth observing systems include
networks of satellite- borne and ground-based
sensors-including ocean buoys, weather stations
and atmospheric radiosondes, that provide
important parameters relating to land, ocean
and atmospheric processes.
 The main Earth observing networks and
international programmes that coordinate the
different observations include:

Earth Observing Systems and
Networks contd….
The main Earth observing networks and international
programmes that coordinate the different observations
include:
World Weather Watch (WWW), Global Observing System
(GOS), Global Telecommunication System (GTS), the
Global Data Processing System.(GDPS), Global
Atmosphere Watch (GAW), Global Ocean Observing
System (GOOS), Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites,
(CEOS), Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS),
Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS).

Discussion of results

From this research it shows that right from the period people
started making observations and weather forecasting, the early
observing methods were based on pattern recognition of invents on
land, sea and the atmosphere such the lunar phases, position of
stars, colour of the sky, movement of winds and sea surfaces

From this study it has been found out that since the inception of
upper air observing system in 18th century and remote sensing
technologies in the 20th century the accuracy of meteorological
forecasts have greatly improve

With the application of satellite meteorology it has
become easy to identify and track severe weather
disaster such as storm storms and give warnings that
help to protect life and property.
Conclusion:

From this study it has been found out that the
upper air observing system and remote sensing
technology have really contributed greatly to
accuracy of meteorological forecasts given out
the world over.
Recommendations:

I recommend that further research need to be
done to find out the relative contributions from
various terrestrial observing systems to the
Numerical Weather Predictions
Acknowledgement
I
thank my co-author for his contribution
towards this research and all those gave
given me assistance when writing this
paper.
THE END
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR LISTENING TO ME.