Transcript 5(2)_Stringer

An Historical View of Adaptive
Observing Strategies in Australia
WMO CIMO
TECO-2006
Russell Stringer
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
[email protected]
06 Dec 2006
WMO CIMO TECO-2006
An Historical View of Adaptive Observing
Strategies in Australia
 Introduction
 Adaptive Surface Observations
 Adaptive Upper Air Observations
 Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
 Some events: Tropical Cyclone; upper level trough
 Conclusion
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Introduction
 An adaptive observing strategy:
o Implements variations to a routine programme of
observations;
o Based on meteorological conditions or other
contingencies;
o May target additional observations in situations of high
expected value;
o May tolerate reduced observations in situations of low
expected value….
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Introduction – Australian context
Upper Air stations.
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Adaptive Surface Observations
 Tropical Cyclone “Emergency Reporting Network”
 (ERN)
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Adaptive Surface Observations
 Storm Spotters network:
o Concentrated over eastern
and southern parts of
Australia
• Greatest population
• Greatest impact of severe TS;
o Volunteers are provided with
training material and other
references;
o Reports are made when the
weather requires it
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Adaptive Surface Observations
 Australian Volunteer Observing Fleet (AVOF)
“REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.”
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Adaptive Surface Observations
 Automatic Weather Station (AWS) observations:
configuration flexibility enables adaptable operations:
o Message format choices;
o Frequency of generating each required message type;
o Frequency of storage;
• Data stored in the AWS logger, may be reconfigured to higher
storage rates during significant events;
o Frequency of transmission;
• This is the most commonly adjusted item, including seasonal
changes and event based adjustments;
o Remote interrogation, polling for data.
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Adaptive Surface Observations
 Portable AWS
o Flexible in space as well as time
o Ability to register location in station
dictionary => data into applications
o “Fire weather trailer” joint project
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
 50 Australian Upper air stations have a mix of technology and
observing programs:
o 31 track balloons by Radar;
• 7 use two radiosondes per day (00 and 12 UTC) and report wind-only data
at 06 and 18 UTC.
• 14 use one radiosonde per day (00 UTC) and report wind-only data at other
times, mostly 06 and 12 UTC.
• 10 never use radiosondes, reporting wind only.
o 17 track balloons by GPS;
• 13 Vaisala™ Autosonde© stations;
• 4 manual balloon release.
o 2 operate only a BLP
 Hence a mix of cost/opportunity for
adaptive flights (wind only, radiosonde)
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
 Two developments in the upper air network led to
the introduction of a systematic program of adaptive
radiosonde flights:
o mid 1990’s: progressive introduction of 12 (now 13)
Autosonde units => loss of 06/18 UTC wind only
flights
o January 2005: reduction in overall usage of
radiosondes => implemented as a substantial
reduction in 12 UTC program across the network
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Adaptive radiosondes flown per month at Australian upper air
stations 2001-2006
120
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number
flown
100
80
number
allocated
60
40
20
0
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
yes
Instruction to Observing
Office to perform
additional flight
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Number of adaptive radiosondes, Jan 05 to Sep 06, by attributed category
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Adaptive Upper Air Observations
 Other adaptive approaches
to upper air obs:
o Portable balloon launch
and tracking facility
o Aircraft-based approaches
• Cold Fronts Reconnaissance
program, 1991-93
• Aerosonde
• AMDAR
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Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
 Weather surveillance by radar was
originally a manual task for on-site
observing staff:
o Performed PPI and RHI scans to
compose a RAREP:
• Text message describing areas of low,
medium, high reflectivity and height of
significant cloud tops;
o later a hand drawn map was faxed
to the forecasting office;
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Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
o The level of weather surveillance by radar was
inherently adaptive to the prevailing weather, and
supported intensive applications such as:
• Aerodrome terminal area thunderstorm service;
• Terminal area severe turbulence nowcasting;
• Cyclone tracking;
 Replaced by PC in forecast office providing dialup
access to digital data, data display and manipulation:
o Forecaster could decide and implement more/less
frequent dialup during active/inactive weather;
o Tension with cost of communication services.
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Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
 Now there is little control of the radar by a forecaster.
A volumetric scan every 10 minutes provides data for
the forecaster to view/manipulate on their workstation;
 A few radars still provide only composite-PPI images,
then switch to volumetric mode during active weather;
 The days of adaptive strategies are giving way to
consistency and standardisation:
o For community access to stable 10-minute images;
o For automatic and quantitative applications (rainfall
estimation, cell tracking, severe thunderstorm feature
detection, …….).
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Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
 The Australian Bureau of Meteorology
has gained enormous benefit for many
years from access to data from the
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite of
the Japan Meteorological Agency, and
more recently the MTSAT.
 During the 1980’s the standard frequency
of provision of satellite images was 3hourly. However an arrangement was in
place allowing provision of hourly images
during emergencies, for limited durations.
The situation most likely to trigger this
provision was a tropical cyclone.
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Tropical Cyclone events
 Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica – April 2006
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Tropical Cyclone events
Source: MTSAT of JMA
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Tropical Cyclone events
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Tropical Cyclone events
 Regular surface
network (pink, green
dots)
 Upper air stations
(red)
 Radar coverage (faint
yellow)
 A technician was
flown to Gove station
for radar etc systems
support
 49 extra radiosondes,
many extra wind-only
flights
 North coast AWS
frequency
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TC Monica – Network coverage
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Tropical Cyclone events
 Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid – March 2005
o Similar track to Monica
o Observer and technician sent to Gove observing office
o ERN activated (3 regular observers, 2 additional observers)
o AWS frequency increased (to half hourly)
o MV Warrender (freight barge) sent 38 invaluable hourly obs while
en route to, and at, Raragala Island where it sought refuge from
the cylone – and reported 90 knot winds
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Conclusion
 The ability to operate and gain advantages from adaptive
observing strategies relies on:
o Ability to implement variations to the routine program:
• Temporal variations – incremental cost/effort
• Spatial variations – specialised mobile capability (hazard/value at risk)
• Manual program – location, safety, training
• Automatic program – design, configuration
• Cost of communications – routinely a significant factor
o Ability to decide on variations:
• Senior Meteorologist: best “situational awareness” of value/capability
• enabling framework: policy, preparations, resources, flexibility/control
• Future: objective guidance for maximum impact on NWP system?
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Conclusion
What NWP impact?
yes
Instruction to Observing
Office to perform
additional flight
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Thank you….
Questions?
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