Transcript VI. History of the bop

The Balance-of-Power
Methodologies, preconditions, analytical values
and weaknesses, case-studies, potentials for
development
15.12.2005
Dr. Christoph Rohde
I. Metatheoretical assumptions
No direct access to „objective reality“
Access to reality with the help of mental
constructions
Epistemological pre-decision
Assumption of potential perceptibility of
objective reality
Ultimate and proximate causes of state
behavior
15.12.2005
Dr. Christoph Rohde
I. Metatheoretical assumptions (2)
Principled assumption of statecentric international system
Intended selective view on „real“
structures
Constellation dependency (global,
regional, local) – horizontal bop
Multilevel or area operationalization –
vertical bop
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
I. Metatheoretical assumptions (3)
How can the overall theoretical
approach be proven or disproven?
How do I generate empirically useful
hypotheses?
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
II. Different Kinds of BoPs
(Problems of logical consistency)
static understanding – equal distribution of
power between different parties
Uni-, bi-, tri- or multipolar system structure
Quantitative relations of power dyads between
actors in different issue areas
Quantitative relations of vulnerability
coefficients in different issue areas
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
II. Different Kinds of BoPs (2)
(Problems of logical consistency)
process understanding of bop
Social bop
Institutional bop – checks and balances
Process of equilibrization is assumed as actors
interpret a specific state of affairs in the
system and react to it – socialization and
adaptation
Perception of bop, not „real“ bop
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
II. Different Kinds of BoPs (3)
(Problems of logical consistency)
Automatic bop
Isolated interactions of individual actors
Bop as unintended result of interactions
Strategies of individual actors: internal and
external balancing
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
IV. Axioms of Bop Theory
(minimum conditions)
The distribution of power in the system is such that „no state shall be
in a position to have absolute mastery and dominance over the others“
(static – multistate system).
National behavior: In a bop system, nations act to prevent the
emergence of dominant actors with hegemonic ambitions.
BoP as „just equilibrium“ in power among the members of the family of
nations as will prevent any one of them from becoming sufficiently
strong to enforce ist will upon the others.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
V. Specific state strategies under bop
conditions
(agent-centric perspective)
A.
B.
C.
Alliance strategies
Hegemonic stability strategy
Anti-alliance strategies
Buckpassing
Chain-Ganging
Hiding
Strategy mix: path-dependent variations in strategies
Timing of Balancing: Prewar b., intrawar b., postwar restructuring of
the system
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. Alternatives to bop policy
(practical steps)
Policies of institutionalization
Collective Hegemony
System of Collective Security
Global Governance
Weltinnenpolitik
Rule of international law (International Criminal
Court...)
Global resource agency (Pogge)
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. History of the bop (Westphalian System)
(1)
The period from 1715-1789 was one of transition between the religious
wars of the 1500's and early 1600's and the wars of nationalism and
democracy starting with the French Revolution. This was also the era
of balance of power politics where Europe operated as an integrated
system, so that one state's actions would trigger reactions from all the
other states. As a result, it was hard for one state to gain an
overwhelming position in Europe without everyone else, in particular
Britain, ganging up to restore the balance. Finally, it was a period of
intense competition between European states, a competition that
would launch Europe into the two bloodiest centuries in all human
history.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. History of the bop (Westphalian System)
(2)
Diplomatic contests (1715-1740). The death of Louis XIV in 1715 led
to the end of one of the bloodiest and most exhausting periods of
warfare in European history to this point. The intensity of bloodshed
was so high that it would take several years before Europe would be
ready for another major war. However, mutual distrust kept the various
powers in a state of suspicion and war preparation against each
other. Spain and Austria conspired to take Gibraltar from England,
causing Britain and France to ally to stop this plot. Britain, Austria, and
Holland signed the Barrier Treaty in 1718, by which Austria got the
Spanish Netherlands (modern Belgium) in return for manning the
barrier fortresses against French aggression. Because of this
maneuvering (or maybe in spite of it) peace ruled over most of Europe
for nearly two decades.
15.12.2005
Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. History of the bop (Westphalian System)
(3)
The rise of Prussia. Since the late 1600's, Prussia had been quietly but steadily gaining strength. Under
Frederick William the Great Elector (1640-88) and his grandson, Frederick William I (1713-40), Prussia
evolved from a small war ravaged principality to a highly centralized independent kingdom. The two pillars
of Prussian strength were a highly disciplined and efficient army and bureaucracy.
The War of the Austrian Succession (1740-48). Frederick's eyes were turned toward the rich province of
Silesia, then under Hapsburg rule. The timing could not have been better for Prussia. Austria was in pitiful
shape to fight a war, having just lost a disastrous struggle with the Ottoman Turks. Its generals and
ministers were old men past their prime, while the administration was full of corruption and
confusion. And to make matters worse, the old emperor, Charles VI had just died, leaving only a young
woman, Maria Theresa, to succeed him. During this time Prussia invaded Silesia.
France, Spain, Bavaria, and Saxony all joined Prussia, hoping to pick Austria clean. Austria's ally, Russia, was
neutralized when Sweden joined the other side against it and Austria. That left Britain, who was already
involved in a war with Spain over control of the West Indies trade. Britain, which generally tried to
maintain the balance of power and its trade, backed Austria. Unfortunately for Austria, Britain had a small
army and was mainly concerned with defending George II's principality of Hanover from neighboring
Prussia. As if Frederick William I had been a prophet, a simple move into Silesia had triggered what
amounted to a global conflict, with fighting in India and the American colonies as well as Europe.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. History of the bop (Westphalian System)
(4)
The Seven Years War (1756-63) was actually two conflicts
combined into one giant war. In addition to the continental war of
Prussia against Austria, Russia, and France, there was also the
struggle for colonial empire between Britain and France. The war
assumed global dimensions, extending from Europe to North
America, the West Indies, Africa, India, and the Philippines.
Prussia's struggle was especially desperate. Frederick,
faced with a three front war, was forced to race from one frontier
to the next in order to prevent his enemies from combining in
overwhelming force. Even then, he still was always
outnumbered. Frederick's oblique formation, where he stacked
one flank to crush the opposing enemy flank and roll it up, worked
time and again to save the day for Prussia. After two brilliant
Prussian victories in 1757, Britain came to the rescue with troops to
guard Hanover and money to pay for the Prussian army, thus
neutralizing the French war effort on the continent.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VI. History of the bop (Westphalian System)
(5)
By the end of 1762, both sides were ready for peace. The
resulting Treaty of Paris in 1763 was a victory for Prussia and
Britain. Prussia, while getting no new lands, kept Silesia and
confirmed its position as a major power. Britain stripped France of
Canada and most of its Indian possessions, and emerged as the
dominant colonial power in the world. Although Russia gained no
new lands, it emerged as an even greater European power.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VII. Possible understandings in the 21st ct. (1)
• Global Bop – Anti-hegemonialism against US
(hard balancing, soft balancing, asymmetric warfare, institutional
strategies, economic bloc building.
• Regional Balancing as Strategy Sui Generis – different players
try to stabilize a military balance a region (e.g., Southeast Asia)
• Regional Balancing as A Strategy to stabilize the global
unipolar system (US strategy)
• Local Balancing Processes (military and geostrategic bop)
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
VII. Possible understandings in the 21st ct. (2)
actor USA
An issueoriented bop
matrix
system
EU
Milit
Econ
Ress
Tech
Dem
Geo
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
Chin. Russ Ind.
VIII. BoP as normative construction
BoP as rationalistic social construction
(Hobbes, Rousseau)
Morgenthau: Bop as resultat of external
normative consensus (concert)
Bull: Bop as prerequisite for a society of
nations
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
IX. Didactic Purposes
To tell a historical narrativ with some elements of
consistency
To induce some instrumental rationality into the acts
of international players
To teach students the interdependency of historical
acts
The gaps in bop explanations allows the introduction
of additional variables.
BoP case studies can be used as isolated elements
of an overall field study that also introduces
postpositivist elements.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
X. Literature
Frank Althoff: Untersuchungen zum Gleichgewicht der Mächte in der
Außenpolitik Friedrichs des Großen nach dem Siebenjährigen Krieg
/1763-1786). Duncker & Humblot. Berlin 1995.
Roslyn Sinowitz: The Logical Consistency and Soundness of the Balance
of Power Theory. Monograph Series in World Affairs. University of
Denver 1982.
Christel Gade: Gleichgewichtspolitik oder Bündnispflege? Maximen
britischer Außenpolitik 1909-1914. V&R, Göttingen 1997.
Vasquez, Elman: The Balancing of Power. Prentice Hall 2003.
William C. Wohlforth: U.S. Strategy in A Unipolar World. In: In: G. John
Ikenberry (ed.): America Unrivaled. The Future of the Balance of
Power. Ithaca 2002. Cornell University Press
Michael Sheehan: The Balance of Power. Routledge. Taylor & Francis
Books Ltd. 1995.
Hans Morgenthau: Macht und Frieden. Gütersloh 1963.
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
XI. Attachments (Maps)
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Dr. Christoph Rohde
XI. Attachments (Maps)
15.12.2005
Dr. Christoph Rohde
XI. Attachments (Maps)
15.12.2005
Dr. Christoph Rohde