Transcript Presentation - Copernicus.org

European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Dynamics of climate and world history
Insert photo
Valentin B. Sapunov, Lev N. Karlin
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St.
Petersburg, Russia
[email protected], [email protected] affiliations
Poster Presentation <221> on <04.04.2011> from <CLO>
Poster main illustrations)
Poster main pThe
main historical events are connected both with solar activity
(Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last is controlled by and
tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too.
The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin.
Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap
began.
Poster presentation
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Abstract
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The main historical events are connected both with solar activity (Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last is
controlled by and tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too. The global climate is under
control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold
snap began. The communists historians suggested that world history is based on class struggle. Russian scientists L.Gumilev
(Gumilev, 1990) suggested such phenomena as “passionarity”. That is number of directed mutations stimulating locomotion
activity of peoples and revolutionary emergent. Despite of the fact of great honor of Gumilev, author suggests impossibility
on multiple directed mutations. The climate changes were more important for people migration. Fig. 2 summarized
literature and Internet data on global temperature dynamics.
Temperature decrease during 4 – 5 century after Christmas was prerequisite for decrease of agriculture of North Europe.
That stimulated migrations of some peoples to Mediterranean. This stimulated falling dawn of old Roma. Social destruction
of this society accelerated this process. Temperature increase during 9 – 10 centuries stimulated social progress at the North
Europe. Old Russia was founded having capital in Staraya (Old) Ladoga. Then center migrated to more south cities such as
Kiev and Moscow. Decrease of temperature in North hemisphere stimulated nomadic peoples of Asia for migration. The
basis of their food industry was stock-breeding needing a waste pastures. Crop-breeding was unable for the nations. Nomad
aggression for Russia had tragic results. At last, Russia as a strong state got freedom from east occupation.
The hot temperature limited ices boundary to north. Colonization of Greenland and North America by Vikings began. Some
centuries latter climate began colder and Greenland was transformed to Whiteland. Colonization was stopped. The back
discovery and colonization of America was begun at 1492 by Column. Great geographical discovers were directed to tropical
regions. The temperature minimum (little ice age) was accorded to crisis of Middle Ages and begin of New Time. Cold time
stimulated social turn to capitalistic societies. The warming prolonged till 1997 and then temperature turned to cold
(www.egu).
Hence we would get a new understanding of world history as class struggle taking place in accordance to global climate and
ecological processes.
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Materials and methods
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Present work is analysis of EGU and IMO
climate change data for many years in
connection with historical data summarized by
A.Tschizhevsky, L.Gumilev and so on.
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
According to modern data
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Climate is controlled by number of
component. The main of them is abiotical.
Interaction between humanity and climate is
ecology of culture. Knowledge of its principle
is way for insure sustanable development.
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Factors, controlling climate: abiotical, biotical, social
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
The main principle of solar effect on human history was
suggested by A.Tschizhevsky
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Physical factors of history were studied by L.Gumilev
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Cyclical process of climate were suggested by
K.Kondratyev
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Many years temperature dynamics
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Temperature extremums and main historical events
Century min/max events
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I
V
IX
XII
XIII
XV
XVII
XX
max
min
max
max
min
min
min
max
prosperity of Roma
following of Roma
foundation of Russia
colonization of America
distribution of Gold Orda
2nd colonization of America
revolutions in Europe
!
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Dynamic of world temperature 1700 –
2059 - old data and prognosis
10
8
6
4
2
0
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
1997
2009
2050
tem perature
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
Conclusion
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The aim of work is consideration of world temperature dynamics and its prediction
for all over the world and influence of climatic changes on world culture and
economical processes. The global warming took place from 17 till the end of 20
centuries. The mechanisms of the process are obscure. But it is clear that abiotic
factors controlling climate are most significant. The global fall of temperature
began from 1997. The climate appear to be dependent from interaction between
abiotical, biotical and social spheres of Earth. The system of all spheres is very
stable. Human activity has no significant importance for global climate processes.
The results of modern temperature decrease would not be significant for all
humanity. The temperature in Arctic would increase. The Antarctic climate would
be colder. The average world temperature would decrease and more variable.
Modern science is able to predict climate change. But serious climate study must
be free on politic end economic pressure.
The cultural development as a reflection of climatic changes is shown in the work.
European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011
Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program
References
• Карлин Л.Н., Самусевич И.Н. Глобальный климат,
история и культура // Общество. Среда. Развитие.
1, 2010, с. 130 – 138.
• В.Б.Сапунов. Грядет глобальное похолодание. М.
АСТ, 2011, 249 с.
• V.B.Sapunov. Effect of global climate on termites
population. Effect of termites population on global
climate // EGU General Assembly, Vol. 12, EGU2010103.