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4. Great Power Rivalries
and Relations
Great-Power Hegemony
• hegemon
: a single powerful state that exercises predominant
influence over global actors
• the hegemon
: reshapes the existing system by creating and
enforcing rules to preserve its own dominant
position
• long-cycle theory
: rise and fall of hegemons
• new rivals
: rise to challenge the existing hegemon
• each global war
: led to the emergence of a victorious hegemon
• world politics
: transformed by a outbreak of a major war
• global destiny?: what goes up must come down?
• hegemonic stability theory
: global dominance of a hegemon is necessary to
provide the order required for international
commerce and military security
• stable world order
: a dominant global leader to punish aggressors who
challenge the status quo and prevent the
competition
• the explosive competition of enduring rivalries:
Britain and France (1066-1904), France and Germany
(1815-1955), and the U.S. and Japan (1905-1945)
Influences at Three
Levels
World War I Causes
•
assassination of heir to the Hapsburg throne by a
Serbian nationalist, at Sarajevo, 1914
Map 4.1 Territorial Changes in Europe following
World War I
SOURCE: From
Strategic Atlas,
Comparative
Geopolitics of
the World’s
Powers, revised
edition, by
Gerard Chaliand
and Jean-Pierre
Ragau.
Copyright ©
1990 by Gerard
Chaliand and
Jean-Pierre
Rageau.
Reprinted by
permission of
HarperCollins
Publishers, Inc.
(1) the global level of analysis (Structural
realism/neorealism)
- the global distribution of power
- Britain dominant sea power
: control a vast empire from the Mediterranean to
Southeast Asia
- rise of Germany
: unified country in 1871
: used its growing wealth to create military forces
: German challenge to hegemon power
- shifting power distribution, breaking Bismarck’s
balance of power
- Bismarck
: used balance of power to preserve peace; “always
be in a majority of 3 in any dispute among 5 great
European powers”
- Russia also newly emerging power
- Germany’s fear of Russia’s expansion
- Germany allowed Austria-Hungary to crush Serbia
- it provoked an unexpected reaction from France and
Russia who defended Serbia
- Britain joined France and Russia (Triple Entente)
- two hostile alliances, non-interlocking
: Germany, Austria-Hungary
: France, Britain, Russia
- the U.S. entered the conflict in April 1917
- Global war
(2) the state level of analysis (Constructivism/
Nationalism)
- domestic factors
: the growth of nationalism
- nationalistic feeling
: aroused long-suppressed ethnic and national
hatreds, especially in Balkans
- the Austrian-Hungarian Empire
: its diabolic image of the enemy
: its hypersensitivity about the preservation of the
empire
: its overconfidence in military capabilities
- Germans and Russians’ intense nationalism, an
patriotic love of country
: causes miscalculations and war
- Germany did not understand
: the Russians’ pride, their fear of humiliation
- if they allowed the German and Austrian to
destroy their little protégé, Serbia
(3) the individual level of analysis
: calculation, desire, personality and goals of greatpower leaders (especially Kaiser Wilhelm II)
Kaiser Wilhelm (1859-1941): the last German Emperor
and King of Prussia
: Kaiser Wilhelm II’s personality (aggressive, bombastic)
and perceptions
- personal handicap (terrible complexes)
- withered left arm caused at his birth
- treatment (electric shock etc./great torture) had a
deep impact on him
“the only result was that I was made to suffer great
torture” – Wilhelm II
: childhood memory in England
- the happiest of his life
- life-long obsession with sea and the great British
battleship
“When I was little boy, I was allowed to visit Portsmouth
… I admired the proud British ship … When I was
grown up, I wanted to possess as fine a Navy as the
English…” – Wilhelm II
: Wilhelm II
- wants to be its status as a world power like British
before Russia had achieved a position of equality
with Germany
World War I Consequences
• 10 millions of deaths
• the war ended in November, 1918
• the Russian czar in 1917
: overthrown by the Bolsheviks
- Communism
• effort to build a new global system that could prevent
another war
: the creation of the League of Nations
: Kellogg-Briand Pact – in 1928 legally prohibited
war as an instrument of foreign policy
• Wilsonian liberalism and decline of realism
World War II Causes
• the liberal idealist proposals
: failed to deter the resumption of another great war
(1) the global level of analysis (Structural realism)
- Allies tried to starve Germany and Austria into
submission since 1914
- allies maintained the blockade – Germany and Austria
(hunger) were hit by the blockade
- failure of international institutions
: Wilson lost his diplomatic fight in Paris
: Wilson joined the old-world game of dictating
boundaries to the defeated nations
: Austria and Hungaria were partitioned
: creation of many new states in Europe - Poland,
Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Finland, Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania
- the harsh Versailles treaty inflame Germany (June 28,
1919)
: revenge
: the imposition of heavy reparations to compensate
the Allies for the damage
: the destruction of Germany’s armed forces and
colonies
: the loss of its territory (Alsace-Lorraine)
: Germany was humiliated and resentful
“hate and revenge ran through the treaty” – Hoover,
American diplomat
- Germany
: denied membership in the League of Nations until
1926
: seeking to recover its status as a great power by
force
- collapse of the international economic system
accelerated nationalist protectionism
: Great Depression (1929-31), hunger
: Germany and Japan sought solution through war
- multipolarity: is Great Britain hegemon?
- American isolationism
- Germany lost WWI, but its hegemonic ambitions
remained
- in March 1938 Hitler
: forced Austria into union with Germany
: annexed Sudetenland in the Czechoslovakia
- in September 1938 at Munich Conference Chamberlain
and other leaders
: acquiesced to Hitler’s expansion (appeasement
policy)
- British, French and other European conviction
: appeasement would halt further German
expansionism
- appeasement stimulated Hitler’s appetite
- France and Britain formed an alliance
- on August 23, 1939, Hitler and Stalin
: signed a nonaggression pact
- Hitler invaded Poland
: Britain and France declared war on Germany
- a hostile coalition
: the Axis trio of Germany, Japan and Italy
: grand alliance – Britain, France and the U.S. and the
Soviet Union
(2) the state level of analysis (Hypernationalism)
- fascism and Nazi grip on Germany
- 1933 Hitler became chancellor
- fascism: regard the state as supreme, accept dictator,
- “Germany was reborn” … “Germany has awaken, We
must win over the German people. … You must obey
and you must give in. … You must submit to the
overwhelming need to obey.” - Hitler
: “Everything for the state, nothing outside the state,
nothing above the state” – Mussolini
- “Rearmament helped to end the unemployment so that
people was full working and earning .. overcame the
shame of surrender”
- survival of fitness “Mine Kampt”
: “strongest animal survive” and “stronger prevail”
: “we all live in permanent struggle”
: anti-Semitism: persuade the German people to
persecute the Jews and Poles
- German’s racial superiority (a master race)
- call for expansion (extreme realist proposition)
“we don’t have colonies … our Reich need to be
carefully cultivated and managed” - Hitler
- Hitler’s one foreign policy goals: overcome the
consequence of Versailles treaty
- Young people was highly mood and optimistic
(3) the individual level of analysis
- the role of Hitler: glorifying the Fuhrer (leader),
provoking anti-Semitism, expanding German borders
- Hitler chose to wage war to create the “Thousand-Year
Reich” by eliminating Germans rivals and inferior
races
World War II Consequences
• the death of 53 million people
• system change: end to great-power rivalries in Europe,
to European dominance of the world’s economy and
culture
• the Big Three leaders – Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin –
met to design the new world order at the Yalta
Conference in Feb. 1945
• following Germany’s surrender, they (Truman) met
again at Potsdam in July 1945
• “grand alliance” (the U.S. and Soviet Union) began to
fade
• iron curtain in eastern Europe
• U.S.-Soviet rivalry: the Cold War
• “the American Century” or “the Russian Century”: the
Americans and Russians now held in their hands the
destinies of mankind
• United Nations
• European integration
Map 4.2 World War II Redraws the Map of Europe
SOURCE:
Europe in 1945
from Strategic
Atlas,
Comparative
Geopolitics of
the World’s
Powers, revised
edition, by
Gerard Chaliand
and Jean-Pierre
Rageau.
Copyright ©
1990 by Gerard
Chaliand and
Jean-Pierre
Ragau.
Reprinted by
permission of
HarperCollins
Publishers, Inc.
Causes of Cold War
(1) Ideology
- mutual abhorrence for each other’s professed beliefs
about politics and economics
- U.S. animosity toward the Soviet Union and Marxism
: the emergence of anticommunism (Senator
McCarthy)
: communism became identical with treasonous, unAmerican activity
- the Soviet Union’s fear of the capitalist states
(especially U.S.)
: America planned to impose the imperialistic,
capitalistic system on the world
“ideology became the chief means which
differentiated friend from foe”
(2) Misperception
- psychological factors (hatred and hostility)
- the superpowers misperceived each other’s motives
: for America, communistic system challenged the
fundamental American principles
: for the Soviet Union, the U.S. sought to encircle the
Soviet Union and smother the communism
“mistrustful actors are likely to see only virtue in
their own actions and only malice in those of their
adversaries”
- perceptions of an adversary’s evil intentions are
socially constructed and become accepted as truth
Figure 4.1 Key Events in the Evolution of the U.S.-Soviet
Relationship during the Cold War, 1948–1991
The Evolution of the U.S. – Soviet Relationship during the
Cold War: bipolarity
(1) Confrontation 1945-62 Berlin
- Berlin blockade; Korean War; Berlin Wall
(2) From Coexistence to Détente, 1963-1978
- détente
; relaxation of tensions
; policy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissenger
; normalization of relationship between U.S. and the
Soviet Union
- cultural exchanges, trade agreements
- SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks), 1969: seek
to restrain the arms race
(3) From renewed confrontation to Rapprochement,
1979-1991
- the Soviet invasion to Afghanistan
- Reagan’s intensified arms race
- the Soviet leader: Gorbachev, 1985, withdrawal from
eastern Europe, Afghanistan,Cuba; domestic
liberalization
- the breakdown of Berlin Wall
- the collapse of the Cold War and bipolarity
Unipolar moment revisited
• “The Unipolar Moment Revisited” Krauthammer
• a world after the Cold War: unipolarity
• United States currently is dominant in military,
economy, technology, diplomacy, culture, language (a
hyperpower)
- military expenditures: the U.S. is the biggest spender
on armament, committing $396 billion for national
security – more than the next 26 countries’ military
expenditure combined
• long-cycle theory: new rivals rise to challenge the
existing hegemon
• But, since the end of Cold War, no such new rivals
(great powers)
• unipolarity after September 11, 2001 was accelerated
• polarity: number of power poles (center)
• power can be distributed in different ways
(unipolarity, bipolarity, multipolarity)
The Crisis of Unipolarity
• unique and new threat: rogue and small state with
WMD, and transnational terrorists
• after September 11, rise of unilateralism
: Bush Doctrine
: the with-us-or-against-us policy and go-it-alone policy
: pre-emptive strike and regime change
: unprecedented assertion of American freedom of action
• American dominance and unilateralism produce
irritation and hostility (Anti-Americanism) in allies
(Europe) and the crisis of unipolarity
• the end of unipolarity?
• its durability will be decided at home
• “the challenge to unipolarity is not from the outside
but from the inside. The choice is ours.”
: whether it is welcomed by Americans or seen as a
burden to be shed
American Dream
• Individuals have dreams, whereas whole societies
have myths – Karl Jung
• American dream is a sort of myth
• myth is socially constructed, created realities
: people invent and accept; pictures constructed through
social intercourse
• myth is publicly held beliefs that unite peoples,
comfort them by alleviating uncertainties, and
mobilize them to act. – William McNeill’s Mythistory
and Other Essays
• It does not matter if myth is true, partly true, or
blatantly false. What matters is that perfectly
reasonable people believe it to be true
A Nation of Dreamers
• “The European Dream” Rifkin
• the American Dream
: used for the first time in “The Epic of America”
written by James Truslow Dames in 1931
• The American dream
: the unbridled opportunity of each individual to
pursue success
• America
: a refuge for every human being who has dreamed of
a better life and a land dedicated to possibilities
• embrace the democratic spirit
• The American Dream: (1) Heaven and eternal
redemption and (2) the pull of the marketplace
Religious Commitment:
A Chosen People
• the American Dream
: the religious heritage and deep spiritual faith
• the Pilgrims (American)
: God’s emissaries (a chosen people)
- who would tame a wilderness and create a new
Eden – a promised land
• the notion of a chosen people
: the driving engine behind the American sense of
confidence
• “America is destined for greatness. The American way
is God’s way”
• religion is very important in their lives
: 60% Americans
: 21% of German / 16% of British / 14% of French /
25% of Korean / 12% of Japanese
• Americans
: more likely to favor “There are absolutely clear
guidelines about what is good and evil”
• Most Europeans, Canadians, Japanese
: “What is good and evil depends entirely upon the
circumstances of our time”
• American foreign policy decision makers
: struggle of good against evil (“evil empire” and
“axis of evil”) to justify war
• the American Dream
: wedded to love of country and patriotism
• American Dream made American the most patriotic
people
: 98% of American youth is proud of their nationality
: 58% of British youth / 65% of German youth
• very difficult for American to adjust to a globalizing
era where allegiance to country is becoming less
important
• Americans tend to think locally
The Withering of the American Work Ethic
• work ethic
: “Idle hands are the Devil’s workshop” – belief in
hard work, perseverance and sacrifice for the future
: utilitarianism and aspiration to create a material
cornucopia
: provided a powerful force in building a highly
advanced industrial society
• a growing number of young Americans
: have broken with the work ethic
An Old Dream?
• it is an old dream
• it is losing its luster
• American way of life no longer inspires, is viewed as
outmoded
• “most American lost our way” – Rifkin
• nonetheless, there are millions of other Americans
: who work hard, share their good fortune with the
less fortune and make good on the American
Dream
• while 51% of American voters still believe it is
possible to live the American Dream
: 34% no longer think it is possible
A Future Multipolar World
• Will the US forever remain a number one or
hegemon?
• a future multipolar world: China and the European
Union are potential challengers for hegemon role –
Kegley
• “new cold war”?: between two major contenders, the
U.S. and China
• “the issue … how well the U.S. accomplishes the
transition from overwhelming predominance to a
position more akin to a ‘first among equals’ status”
– Secretary of State Eagleburger
Map 4.3 The Emerging Centers of Power in the 21st
Century Global Hierarchy
SOURCES:
Economist
(2002), 24.