Transcript Next Revolution in Production Systems

The Next Revolution in Production Systems
Alistair Nolan,
OECD,
Division for Science and Technology Policy
The World Conference on Intellectual Capital for Communities
UNESCO, July 12&13
1
Selected themes – digital
technologies
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
HumanMachine
integration
Simulations
Artificial
Intelligence
System
integration
Big data
Cloud
computing
Internet of
Things
Selected themes – digital
technologies
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
HumanMachine
integration
Many Productivity Benefits from Digital Technologies
-Output and productivity in US firms that adopt data-driven decision making
are 5% to 6% higher than expected given those firms’ other investments in ICTs.
Artificial
System
Simulations
-The Internet
of Things reduces costs
among industrial adopters
by 18% on
Intelligence
integration
average.
-Across 17 OECD countries, increasing use of industrial robots between 1993
and 2007 raised annual growth of labour productivity by 0.36 percentage
points.
Big data
Cloud
computing
Internet of
Things
-Autonomous mine haulage trucks could in some cases increase output by 1520%, lower fuel consumption by 10-15% and reduce maintenance costs by 8%.
Selected themes – digital
technologies
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
HumanMachine
integration
Policy challenges include
Artificial
System
Simulations access to critical ICT infrastructures.
-Broadening
Intelligence
integration
-Reducing barriers to diffusion, increasing
interoperability.
-Resolving issues of liability, transparency and
ownership.
Cloud
Internet of
Big data
computing
-Managing digital security and privacy. Things
Selected themes – digital
technologies
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
HumanMachine
integration
Policy challenges include
Artificial
System
Simulations access to critical ICT infrastructures.
-Broadening
Intelligence
integration
-Reducing barriers to diffusion, increasing
W”” ”We have to execute quickly, otherwise those who are
interoperability.
already leading in digital will snatch the industrial
-Resolving issues ofproduction
liability,
and
fromtransparency
us.”
ownership.
Cloud
Internet of
Big data
computing
Angela
Merkel,
World
Economic
Forum
2015
-Managing digital security and privacy. Things
Selected themes – digital
technologies
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
HumanMachine
integration
Policy challenges include
- Just
18% of German companies
familiar with the term ‘Industry
Artificial
System
Simulations access to critical ICT infrastructures.
-Broadening
Intelligence
integration
4.0’
-Reducing
to diffusion,
increasing
- Onlyt 4%barriers
of German businesses
have implemented
digitalised
”We have
to executeprocesses
quickly, otherwise
thosetowho
are
andW””
networked
production
or have plans
begin
interoperability.
already leading in digital will snatch the industrial
doing
so.
-Resolving issues ofproduction
liability,
and
fromtransparency
us.”
ownership.ZEW Mannnheim 2015Cloud
survey of 4,500 German Internet
businesses
of
Big data
computing
Things
Angela
Merkel,
World
Economic
Forum
2015
-Managing digital security and privacy.
Selected Themes - 3D printing
Selected Themes - 3D printing
Selected Themes - 3D printing
Selected Themes - 3D printing
Selected Themes - 3D printing
-Less waste, less transport ?
-But 3D printing can enable more sustainable material use:
E.g. It permits many materials to be shaped in ways previously possible
only with plastics; It lowers barriers to switching between materials by
reducing economies of scale in some processes; etc..
-3D-printed parts can also lower the environmental impacts of some
products because of how the products can be used.
Selected Themes - 3D printing
Policy?challenges
-Less waste, less transport
include
This can happen by: (i) printing parts for legacy
3D printing
can would
enable more
sustainablebe
material
use: to label
products
that
otherwise
discarded;
and3D
•-But
Creating
a voluntary
certification
system
(ii)
improving
a product's
energy efficiency
printers
with different
grades of sustainability;
E.g. It permits many materials to be shaped in ways previously possible
(G.E.'s
lighter
3D-printed
partsbarriers
for a jetto engine
•only
Removing
intellectual
property
enable
with plastics;
It lowers barriers
to switching
between materials
by
improved
fuel
efficiency
by
15%).products
3D printing
of repair
for
legacy
(for
reducing
economies
of
scaleparts
in some
processes;
etc..
instance, washing machines no longer in production).
-3D-printed parts can also lower the environmental impacts of some
products because of how the products can be used.
Selected Themes – Nantoechnology
Electron microscope image of gold
mesh.
Each
hole
is
175
nanometers in diameter, smaller
than the wavelength of light. Can
increase efficiency of solar cells
175%.
Nanotechnology-enabled printing
of solar cells (can move away from
energy-intensive
zone-melting
processes used for traditional
silicon
solar
cells).
Selected Themes - New materials
Selected Themes - New materials
Policy challenges include
- Some new policy issues: new cybersecurity risks.
- And some old policy issues: well-designed policies are needed for
open data and open science. Close collaboration needed between
industry, universities, research funding agencies and public
laboratories.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
Technology diffusion and adoption
Enterprises using cloud computing services by employment size class, 2014
As a percentage of enterprises in each employment size class
%
All enterprises
10-49
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
50-249
250+
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
the intellectual property system.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
the intellectual property system.
-NPR may need changes to labour market policies.
-E.g. Self-employment could grow.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
the intellectual property system.
-NPR may need changes to labour market policies.
-E.g. Self-employment could grow.
-Education and training systems needs constant
attention.
Automation - in the NPR
Automation - in the NPR
Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
Automation - in the NPR
Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Automation - in the NPR
Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
Automation - in the NPR
Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
The Quill programme writes analytic reports and
Automated Insights can draft text from spreadsheets.
Automation - in the NPR
Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
The Quill programme writes analytic reports and
Automated Insights can draft text from spreadsheets.
Recent softwares interpret some human emotion
better than humans (Khatchadourian, 2015).
Upgrading skills
Two thirds of people surveyed lack the skills to succeed in technology-rich
environments
very low skills or opted
out of the test
2 out of
3
people
lack
skills
for the
digital
age
low skills
medium skills
solid skills
29
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
the intellectual property system.
-NPR may need
changes
to labour
market
-Some
new production
technologies
raise thepolicies.
importance ofcould
inter-disciplinary
-E.g. Self-employment
grow. education and
research.
-Education and training systems needs constant
attention.
-Greater interaction with industry may be needed as the
knowledge content of production rises.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
the intellectual property system.
-NPR may need changes to labour market policies.
-E.g. Self-employment could grow.
-Education and training systems needs constant
attention.
-Policy needs long-term thinking.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
Robert
Metcalfe, the
inventorsystem.
of Ethernet, in 1995: "I predict
the
intellectual
property
the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in
-NPR
may need changes to labour market policies.
1996 catastrophically collapse."
-E.g. Self-employment could grow.
-Education and training systems needs constant
attention.
-Policy needs long-term thinking.
Other cross-cutting issues
-Sound science and R&D policies are essential.
-Governments must create an environment for
business dynamism.
-Well-designed institutions can help technology
diffusion.
-Technological change is creating new challenges for
Robert
Metcalfe, the
inventorsystem.
of Ethernet, in 1995: "I predict
the
intellectual
property
the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in
-NPR
may need changes to labour market policies.
1996 catastrophically collapse."
-E.g. Self-employment could grow.
-Education
and
training systems
needs
constant
Public
acceptance
might also
be important.
attention.
-Policy needs long-term thinking.
Thank you
[email protected]