Transcript Kendall`s Technology Life Cycle

Emerging Information Technologies
Dr. Charles C. Tappert
Department of CSIS
Pace University
Emerging Information Technologies
What are Emerging Info Technologies?
Moore’s Law and what might follow
Wearable/Handheld Computers
Virtual Reality
Artificial Intelligence
e-Commerce
Speech and Handwriting Interfaces
Technology Life Cycle
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Precursor - dream or contemplation
Invention
Emergence (development)
Acceptance (established)
Surplus or Obsolescence
Moore’s Law
 Every 18 months we put twice as many transistors
on an integrated circuit doubling computing power
 Been in effect about 40 years
 Projected to continue another 20 years
 This will end when the size of a transistor
approaches the size of a few atoms and
conventional shrinking methods won’t work
 What will happen then?
After Moore’s Law
New Technologies Will Emerge
 Nanotechnology
 Quantum Computing
 Chaos Computing
 Optical Computing
Wearable/Handheld Computers
Enabling Technologies
 Smaller & Faster Processors
 Interfaces in Human Modalities
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Speech recognition (input) and synthesis (output)
Pen Computing (input/output)
 Head Mounted Displays (output)
 Wireless communication
Photos of Wearable Computers
Virtual Reality
 Head Mounted Displays
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Block view of outside world
Completely immerse user in virtual world
 Applications
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Flight simulators
Equipment operators
Game playing
Photos of VR HMDs
Artificial Intelligence
 Pattern recognition
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Speech & handwriting recognition
Face recognition
Military target recognition
 Search solution spaces
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Business optimization problems
Chess and other game playing
 Expert Systems
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Medical diagnosis
Decision Support Systems
E-commerce agents
e-Commerce
Web Metamorphosis
 from digital library
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static web pages
focus on retrieval
 to an electronic marketplace
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dynamic web pages
focus on transactions
 requires new perspective & control mechanisms
e-Commerce
Web Pull/Push Technologies
 Web pull technologies
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Surfing the Net
Using a search engine
Personal search engines
Using an evolutionary agent
 Web push technologies
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Broadcasting/Webcasting
Selective channeling & filtering
Push what the user wants (cookies)
Evolutionary push provides exact user needs
e-Commerce
Agents
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Web
Representation - marketplace goods & services
Promotion - interactive ads
Payment & settlement - secure funds transfer
Valuation - online auctions and bargaining
Customer info - track customer preferences and habits
Quality - ratings, reviews, recommendations
Risk Management - product guarantees, loss insurance
Negotiation - automated systems for negotiation
Speech Recognition
 Isolated words
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Navigation and control systems
 Continuous speech recognition
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Dictation
 Speech understanding systems
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General speech input
Speech Recognition Problems
 Dialects
 Telephone/cell phone limitations
 Noisy environments
 Similar sounding words
Speech Recognition Problems
 Similar sounding words
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Recognize speech
Wreck a nice beach
 Identically sounding words - homophones
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The sun’s rays meet
The sons raise meat
Speech Understanding Problems
Natural Language Understanding
 The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak
Speech Understanding Problems
Natural Language Understanding
 The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak
 The vodka is strong but the meat is rotten
Handwriting Recognition
 Offline
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Scanned Images
Static Information
 Online
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Electronic Tablet or Digitizer
Real-Time, Dynamic Information
Online Handwriting Recognition
 Invention of electronic tablets -- late 1950s
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Tablet and display were separate
 Pen Computing -- 1980s
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Combined tablets and dislpay
Brought input and output into the same surface
Immediate feedback via electronic ink
Created the paper-like interface
Dynamic Handwriting Information
 Number of strokes
a stroke is the ink trace from pen down to pen up
 Order of strokes
 Stroke direction
 Stroke velocity, acceleration
Written Language and
Handwriting Properties
 Alphabet
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Letters, digits, punctuation, special symbols
 Writing is a time sequence of strokes
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Complete one character before beginning next
except for delayed strokes
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Spatial order -- for example, left to right
Written English Writing Styles
 Handprint
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Uppercase -- about 2 strokes per letter
Lowercase -- about 1 stroke per letter
 Cursive Script
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Less than a stroke per letter
Delayed crossing and dotting strokes
Computer Problems in English
 Constrained Handprint
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Printing on lines -- symbols can touch or overlap
Printing one symbol per box -- form filling
 Unconstrained Handprint
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No lines and symbols can touch or overlap
 Cursive Script
 Mixed Printing and Cursive
Handprint Recognition Difficulties
 Digitizer problems
 Writing variation not handled by system
 Uppercase versus lowercase versus digits
 Segmentation -- character within character
problem
Design of Graffiti for Palm Pilot
 Small Alphabet
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uppercase, digits, special symbols
 One stroke per symbol to avoid segmentation
difficulty
 Separate writing areas to avoid letter and
digit confusion
Graffiti Alphabet
Early Shorthand Alphabets
 Ancient Greeks -- 400 BC
 Tironian -- 63 BC
 Stenographie -- 1602
 Gabelsberger -- 1834
 Moon -- 1894
 Goldberg’s Unistrokes (Xerox) -- 1993
Stenographie Alphabet 1602
Moon Alphabet 1894
Pen Computing Future Work
 Graffiti recognizer greatly simplified the
recognition problem
 Handprint problem not completely solved
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Even with IBM’s ThinkWrite, CIC’s Jot, and
Microsoft products
 Cursive script not solved
Example of the Difficulty of
Recognizing Cursive Script
Summary
What are Emerging Info Technologies?
Moore’s Law and what might follow
Wearable/Handheld Computers
Virtual Reality
Artificial Intelligence
e-Commerce
Speech and Handwriting Interfaces