Transcript Slovenijo v informacijsko družbo - Department of Intelligent Systems

Intelligent systems
Intelligence?
Matjaž Gams
Jozef Stefan Institute,
Slovenia
MPS, 28.10.2009
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I. DEFINITIONS:
Intelligent systems (scientific)
Intelligent system is a system that learns during its existence.
It senses its environment and learns, for each situation,
which action permits it to reach its objectives.
It continually acts, mentally and externally, and by acting
reaches its objectives.
To reach its objective it has to select its response. A simple
way to select a response is to select one that was favorable in
a similar previous situation.
Engineering definition: more advanced than current ones.
Properties / Learning
Learning
 Flexibility
 Adaptation
 Explanation
 Discovery


(engineering – mouse?)
Definition AI - Wikipedia
The intelligence of machines and the branch of
computer science which aims to create it.
Major AI textbooks define the field as "the study
and design of intelligent agents."
John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956,
defines it as "the science and engineering of
making intelligent machines.“ (Turing first?)
The field was founded on the claim that intelligence
can be simulated by a machine.
Artificial intelligence has been the subject of
breathtaking optimism, has suffered stunning
setbacks and is today an essential part of the
technology industry, computer science and IS.
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ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
Russell and Norvig
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
A Modern Approach
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Approaches to AI
 Cybernetics
and brain simulation
 Traditional symbolic AI
 Sub-symbolic AI
 Intelligent agent paradigm
 Integrating the approaches
Kismet
social
robot
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AI performance





optimal: it is not possible to perform better
strong super-human: performs better than all
humans
super-human: performs better than most
humans
sub-human: performs worse than most humans
For example, performance at checkers is
optimal, performance at chess is super-human
and nearing strong super-human, and
performance at many everyday tasks performed
by humans is sub-human.
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II. INTELLIGENCE, SCIENCE, REAL
LIFE, BUSINESS
Intelligence = better performance, better prediction of
future, (5 mil. y. cave man, 25% energy, improved
performance - sex?, Evolution!! Now – low intelligence
related to crime, unemployment ...)
Intelligence – evolutionary, one person, society, types
of intelligence, knowledge, …
Turing test: TT, TTT, TTTT ...
Imagination is more important than knowledge...
(Albert Einstein)
Interaction is more important than algorithms (Wegner, Gams)
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The world is not as it seems
http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix1.avi
(+income, knowledge, health, live longer …)
Cypher: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill?
http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix2.avi
(-less children, less sex …)
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Is the internet changing the way our brains
work? Yes! (taxi driver)
Do we use tools such as Web to increase
our capabilities?
Yes! Human + Web > Human
Faster progress of mental capabilities!
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Science is truth
- half empty glass
- w. earn less, w. less intelligent, b. less
intelligent, underdeveloped exploit rich,
more/less intelligent generations (formal
or real-life tests)
- religious better mental health,
creationism vs. evolution
- provocative, debatable, fierce opposition
- religion, politics, ideology
- mass media (Finance)
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r
Socio-economic status; better intellience helps
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Can we predict future?
An exampe of oil:
- pessimistic
- optimistic
- not possible to predict short-term prices
US oil production
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Can we predict future?
An exampe of oil:
- we can predict general trends!
(several years ahead of ...)
The end of cheap oil – on general it will be more
expensive
There will be ups and downs
In one or several decades max production
- Interpretation-prediction: Peak oil is one of the real
causes of our credit crisis, our banking crisis, our stock
market declines and ultimately our economic problems
(or is it neoliberalism and lack of governmental control)
- What do you conclude about future progress from
these assertions?
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Can we predict future?
Demography:
- we can predict general
demography very well
(it is easy in scientific terms)
(several years ahead of ...)
S sedanjih 6.5 milijarde bo število ljudi naraslo na 9-10
milijard v letu 2050.
Po celinah bo stanje leta 2050 glede na 1900 naslednje:
Afrika (133 milijonov, 1.9 milijarde)
Azija (946 mio, 5.2 mil),
Evropa (408 mio, 664 mio),
Severna Amerika (82 mio, 455 mio).
Leta 2050 na 1 Rusa 4 Američani in 20 Indijcev.
Slovenci s sedanjih 1:4000 na 1:8000 do leta 2050. V 50
letih 2x manj.
- What can you conclude from this?
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Slovenija, 2008
Starost
100+
100+
Moški
Ženske
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
00
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
Prebivalstvo (v tisočih)
Vir: Eurostat, 2008; prikaz: Jože Sambt
20
Slovenija, 2028
Sta
100+
100+
ros
90
90
t
Mo
ški
Ženske
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
00
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
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Prebivalstvo
Vir: Eurostat,(v
2008;
prikaz: Jože Sambt
tisočih)
15
20
Projekcija Slovencev
Projekcije gibanja Slovencev po narodnosti od 2005-2100
1800000
1600000
1200000
1000000
Slovenci - optimistična
800000
Slovenci - pesimistična
600000
400000
200000
Leto
9.4.2016
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0
2005
Št. Slovencev
1400000
Vrnitev na današnje število
prebivalcev čez 100 let z linearnim
zviševanjem rodnosti (8;13) –
prikaz dolgoročnosti in zamika
1600000
1400000
1200000
Slovenci optimistična
1000000
800000
Leto
9.4.2016
2095
2086
2077
2068
2059
2050
2041
2032
2023
2014
600000
400000
200000
0
Slovenci pesimistična
2005
Št. Slovencev
1800000
Can we predict
future?
Projekcije gibanja Slovencev po narodnosti od 2005-2100
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
Slovenci - optimisti
800000
Slovenci - pesimist
600000
400000
200000
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
Leto
Rather bleak predictions?
Physical or mental?
S
t
a
r
o
s
Prt
100+
100+
Ženske
90
90
M
o
š
k
i
20
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2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0
2005
Št. Slovencev
- What can you conclude
from this?
- Does science help us and
how?
Does intelligence help us
and how?
1800000
15
10
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
5
0
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0
ebi
5
10
15
20
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Fantastic progress of knowledge!
Intelligence is strongly related to success
Science = truth!
- half empty glass
- avoid non-science by all means,
be careful of interpretations
You are at an advanced level and
you will boldly go further
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