Transcript Document

A Perspective on
AI & Agent Technologies for SCM
Adam Cheyer
VP Engineering, Enterprise Products
[email protected]
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
1
Plan
•
•
•
•
•
7/16/2015
AI & Agents
Supply and Value Chain Management
Interesting companies: AI & Agents for SCM
VerticalNet Activities
Predicting the Future
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
2
Thoughts on Artificial Intelligence
• What is intelligence?
– A.I. is not practical <- -> What is practical is not A.I.
• e.g. MapQuest
– Intelligent or not: Deep Blue?
– AI has moved away from general intelligence as a goal to more applied
uses
• There remain hard problems in SCM, and AI techniques will
surely be involved in the solutions
• Timeframes for introduction of A.I.
– There is such a thing as “too far ahead” of current paradigm, even if
practical today
• Technology is only a sliver of the story for business scenarios
– Computing is rarely an invisible, “magic bullet”
– Takes commitment and organizational change
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
3
Artificial Intelligence Landscape
AI
Interfacing with People
and the World
Speech
Reco & TTS
Natural Language
Input & Generation
Information Retrieval
Text Extraction
Multimodal Interfaces
Input & Output
Vision
OCR Stereo
Knowledge Representation
and Reasoning
Symbolic
Ontologies
Numeric
Planning, Search
& Control
Rules &
Logics
Reactive
Planning
Learning
Case-Based Neural
Reasoning Networks
Generative
Planning
Genetic
Algorithms
Optimization
Cheyer 2001
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
4
The Agent Landscape
Agents
Interfacing with People
and the World
User Interface
Agents
Avatars
ChatBots
Knowledge Rep
& Reasoning
Autonomous
Agents
Robotics Simulation
Software
Engineering
Dist. Agent
Communities
Web
crawlers
Learning Agents
Web
Services
Mobile
Agents
Peer-toPeer
Heterogeneous
Data Mgt
Collaborative
Filtering
Cheyer 2001
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
5
The Supply Chain Landscape
There are two fundamental issues in supply chain. One is in relation to our
customers, in terms of being responsive and efficient in that relationship and the
other side of it is really optimizing all the costs and asset values that are embedded in
the supply chain…
ERP
SCM
MRP
MRP
Suppliers
7/16/2015
CRM
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
Customers
6
AI and Agents in SCM
Optimization
Integration
Interface
Planning, Scheduling, Configuration, Event Management, Knowledge representation, Data transformation, Natural Language
Rules, Learning, Data mining, Information Retrieval, Classification
Simulation, Business Intelligence
ERP
SCM
MRP
MRP
Suppliers
7/16/2015
CRM
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
Customers
8
Interesting Companies:
AI/Agents for SCM
• Optimization: ILog powers SC planning, forecasting, routing,
scheduling and optimization for companies like SAP, Oracle, I2, etc.
• Configuration: Trilogy manages configuration and translation of
products throughout the order lifecycle
• Natural Language: Dejima, iPhrase, and Nuance are creating NL and
speech interfaces to enterprise data for CRM and other apps
• Rules: BiosGroup and BlackPearl both offer enterprise products
combining modeling, rules, and multi-goal optimization
• Agent & Web Service based enterprise integration
–
–
–
–
–
7/16/2015
Enhanced Workflow: Agentis International, Action Technologies, iSpheres
Peer-to-peer: Fiorano’s Tifosi, WebV2
Facilitated models: Talking Blocks
Mobile agents: Electron Economy
Ontology-based Integration: Frictionless Commerce, Bodha, Unicorn
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
9
eXtended Enterprise Management
(XEM)
Business is undergoing a fundamental transformation characterized by
modularization, specialization, business process outsourcing, that will
require new types of IT support.
Manufacturing Partner
Key
Customer
Key
Supplier
Distribution Partner
Contract
Manufacturing
Increased Customer
Data Requirements
Key
Core
Business
Key
Supplier
Supply Chain
Partners operating
with different:
• Platforms
Customer
• Systems
Inventory Visibility
Requirements
Key
Modularization
• Naming
Conventions
Key
Customer
Supplier
Industry Marketplace
Industry Marketplace
s
Many to Many
Relationships
s
s
Smaller Suppliers
We are reaching the stress point of the current technology wave. In order to compete
effectively in the future, enterprises will need to optimize their value chains and extend
beyond the walls of the enterprise.
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
10
Verticalnet: AI, Agents & SCM
• Verticalnet technologies:
– Interoperability: Ontology Management Infrastructure for
collaborative standards development. All applications are driven
by an ontology layer
– Distributed Data Management: real-time routing of queries across
heterogeneous information sources. Includes mapping and
translation, learning-based auto-classification, attribute extraction,
analytics
– Open Services Management: an infrastructure for constructing
multi-firm applications using a just-in-time service integration
approach. Focuses on service normalization and optimal
selection, integrated within a BPM framework.
– E-Commerce technologies: rule engines for pricing, cross-sell,
etc.; multi-party multi-attribute optimization engine for dynamic
trade
• Applied initially to 59 industry-focused marketplaces, now
emphasis is on VCR (visibility, comprehension and
response) for eXtended enterprise networks
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
11
Ontology Builder & Server
– Multi-user collaborative ontology
generation and maintenance tool
– Frame-based representation
based on the OKBC Knowledge
Model: supports multi-inheritance,
complex types, relationships,
attributes, facets
– Written entirely in Java, based on
the J2EE platform:
High performance & scalability,
with clustering & failover
– A verification engine to maintain
consistency of terms stated in the
language
– A role-based security model for
data security and ontology access
– Ontology difference and merging
– Internationalized
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
12
C2: Distributed Visibility and
Comprehension
Management of distributed heterogeneous sources of information
Distributed (rather than warehoused)
–
–
–
–
7/16/2015
Source-managed publishing and maintenance
Data resides in supplier’s own systems
Scalability & reliability: intelligent routing of distributed queries
Supports hybrid model: some distributed, some at hub
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
13
Automatic Classification Components
• Learning-based classification
– Automatically deduce statistical classification rules from classified
training set
– Integrated with manual mapping GUIs (e.g. BP): learns from new
mapping operations and accelerates mapping process by guessing
– Extremely fast autoclassification – 1000x faster than competitors
• Rule-based classification
– Graphical rule editor and rule processing engine for coding humanreadable classification knowledge
– Ontology-based inheritance allows grouping and cascading of rules
for better context management and enhanced efficiency
– Sample rule: “All products from Manufacturer1 with ID starting with
‘CP’ are capacitors”
• Abstraction layer allows combinations of multiple
classification components (e.g., first apply RBC, then catch
residual using LCB)
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
15
OSM: Service and Process
Management Framework
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
16
Predicting the Future
• How to predict the future?
–
–
–
–
7/16/2015
Many ideas start in the research labs
Consider what analysts are saying
Look at innovative small companies pushing/selling new ideas
Dart board…
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
17
eXtended Enterprise Management
“[XEM] will redefine the packaged apps market…[XEM] Apps Tackle Partnering
Problem – To collaborate effectively, firms will need a new breed of apps called
[eXtended Enterprise Management] to help speed up and expand the scope of
supplier, channel and customer relationships” - Forrester, May 2001
Optimization across
the value chain
including all tiers of
suppliers and
customers
Substantially
lowering inventory
across the entire
value chain
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
Ability to perform
true collaborative
design and planning
Transparency
Upstream
Full Visibility into
Supply and Demand
XEM: Today-2003
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
18
XEM:Visibility and Response Across
the Value Chain
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
“Competition is increasingly becoming supply chain against supply chain.
Supply chains need to take into account the increasingly interconnected nature
of global business. Current supply chains fall short of expectations because
they deal only with isolated parts of the network: The sequential steps may be
optimized, but these are not extended across the entire network.”
- Barry Wilderman, SVP, META Group
XEM:2003-2006
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
19
The Future Vision: eXtended Enterprise
Management Across Industries
The ultimate vision is to allow for extended enterprise management across
industries.
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
Mining
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
Metals
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
Electronics
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP
XEM
Automotive
XEM:2006 & beyond
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
20
7/16/2015
© 2001, Vert Tech LLC. All rights reserved.
22