Transcript Market demand

Session 2


Marketing Research
Forecasting
Developing the research plan

Data Sources
 Primary
 Secondary
Developing the research plan

Approaches
 Observational
 Focus
group
 Survey
 Behavioral Data
 Experimental
 Technological
 Questionnaire
Question types – importance scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
 Extremely important
 Very important
 Somewhat important
 Not very important
 Not at all important
Question types – rating scale
Virgin Atlantic’s food service is _____.
 Excellent
 Very good
 Good
 Fair
 Poor
Question types –
intention to buy scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on Virgin
Atlantic if in-flight Internet access were available?
 Definitely buy
 Probably buy
 Not sure
 Probably not buy
 Definitely not buy
Question types –
completely unstructured
What is your opinion of Virgin Atlantic?
Question types –
word association
What is the first word that comes to your mind when
you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
British _____________________
Travel ________________________
Question types –
sentence completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
__________________________________________
__________________________________________
__________________________________________
__________________________________________
__________________________________________
______________________________.
Question types –
story completion
‘I flew Virgin a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior
and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This
aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings’.
Now complete the story.
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
______________
Question types –
picture (empty balloons)
Qualitative measures
Word association
Projective techniques
Visualization
Brand personification
Laddering
Technological devices
Galvanometers
Tachistoscope
Eye cameras
Audiometers
GPS
Sampling plan



Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
Sample size: How many people should be surveyed?
Sampling procedure: How should the respondents
be chosen?
Types of samples
Table 6.2
Probability and non-probability samples
Contact methods
Mail questionnaire
Telephone
interview
Personal
interview
Online
interview
Pros and cons of online research
Advantages
 Inexpensive
 Fast
 Accuracy of data,
even for sensitive
questions
 Versatility
Disadvantages
 Small samples
 Skewed samples
 Technological
problems
 Inconsistencies
Characteristics of
good marketing research
1)
Scientific method
2)
Research creativity
3)
4)
Multiple methods
Interdependence of
models and data
5) Value and cost of
information
6) Healthy scepticism
7) Ethical marketing
Barriers to the use of
marketing research
Uneven calibre
of researchers
Narrow conception
of research
Poor framing
of the problem
Late and occasionally
erroneous findings
Personality and
presentational differences
Slide 15.23
The measures of market demand
Penetrated
Market
Target
Market
Available
Market
Potential
Market
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.24




Market demand = total volume that would be
bought by a customer group, in a particular time
period, in a marketing environment, under
marketing program
Market forecast = market demand corresponding to
a certain level of marketing expenditure
Primary demand = total volume demanded by
customers for a product category
Secondary demand = total volume demanded by
customers for a specific brand or product
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.25
Figure 6.4
Market demand functions
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.26
Figure 6.4
Market demand functions (continued)
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.27
Unit vs. Dollar Share in US
Razor Blades
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.28
How can we estimate
current demand?

Total market potential

Area market potential
 Market
buildup method
 Potential
buyers x potential purchases
 Multiple-factor
 Population,
index method
Income, Physicians, Retail sales
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.29
Sales Forecasting vs. Demand Forecasting
Historical
Data


Adjustments
Sales
Forecast
Basically interchangeable terms
Sales Forecasts are biased by:
 Inventory
stock-out (under-estimation of demand)
 Promotions (over-estimation of demand)
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.30
Demand Forecasting Model
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.31
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.32
Mathematical




Time Series
Exponential Smoothing
Statistical Demand Analysis
Econometric Analysis
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.33
Qualitative Adjustments





Price
Promotions, Events
Trends
Growth Rates
Market Data
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.34
Non-mathmatical
Judgmental
Methods





Customerbased
Methods



Group discussion (Consensus)
Pooled individual estimates
Delphi technique
Jury of executive opinion
Composite of sales force opinion (Rollup)
Analogy
Customer surveys
Test marketing
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.35
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.36
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.37
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.38

Look for S Curves



Look for indicators


Inflection points
20 years: “Never mistake a clear
view for a short distance”
“The future’s already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed
yet.” William Gibson
Black Swans


What do we really know? Turkey example.
Open Minded, Skeptical, History Jumps
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.39
Black Swan
member of the species Cygnus atratus, which remained
undocumented until the eighteenth century
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009
Slide 15.40
Taleb – The Black Swan

Mediorcistan vs. Extermistan
 Average




(weight vs. income) of 1000 ppl.
Mistake map for territory
Platonification – overvaluation of factual
information and creation of categories
“absence of evidence vs. evidence of absence”
Precisely wrong (narrow model with precise
assumptions) or broadly right (across broad set of
eventualities)
Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009