Transcript 15.834 Marketing Strategy

15.834 Marketing Strategy
• Cases and lectures
• Letter of Complaint
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Objectives
• Identify, evaluate, and develop marketing strategies
• Evaluate a firm’s opportunities
• Anticipate competitive dynamics
• Evaluate the sustainability of competitive advantages
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Target Audience
• Consultants
• Investment Analysts
• Entrepreneurs
• Product Managers
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I What Is Marketing Strategy?
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
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Question:
How can a firm earn sustained, superior returns?
1. Create value
2. Capture value
3. Continue to do this
A Marketing Strategy is an integrated set of choices about how
we will create and capture value, over long periods of time.
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A good marketing strategy meets three tests
1. External consistency
2. Internal consistency
3. Dynamic consistency
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External fit: Finding Profit Opportunities
Technology
Suppliers
Competitors
Marketing
Strategy
Complementors
Customers
End User Preferences
The Environment shapes, and is shaped by, Marketing Strategy.
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Value Creation: Some Definitions
Value created:
Customer willingness to pay
- supplier opportunity cost
Value created by a firm
= Value created by all
- Value created by all others
A player is your competitor if
- customers value your product less when they have hers as well
- suppliers value your business less when they have hers as well
A player is your complementor if
- customers value your product more when they have his as well
- suppliers value your business more when they have his as well
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Internal Fit: Creating Competitive Advantage
Supplier Opportunity Cost
Firm Resources
Competitor Resources
Marketing
Strategy
Resource Investments
Customer Willingness to Pay
Good marketing strategies are based on resource advantages and the latter are created
by speed or gambles; often in areas where resources are not priced out directly or in the
cover of competitor ignorance.
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Dynamic Fit: Challenging Competitive Advantage
New Technologies, New Suppliers
New Resources
New Marketing Strategies
New Needs, New Customers
Upset the industry and resource fits of established competitors.
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Corporate Resources
Corporate Marketing Strategies
Business 1
Business 2
Corporate Advantage adds value to multiple businesses.
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II Finding Profit Opportunities
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
Lobsters
Disney
Computer games
Browsers
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To craft an effective marketing strategy, you must take account
of the environment
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to decide on entry/exit
to assess the effect of a major change
to position your firm to succeed in a given environment
to shape the environment
But the environment is enormously complex
You need structured ways of thinking about it
– to capture the richness
– but separate signal from noise
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Some Complementary Approaches
• Classical Economics (Supply and Demand)
• “Old” Industrial Organization Economics (5 forces)
• Non cooperative Game Theory (Oligopoly equilibrium)
• Cooperative Game Theory (Value net)
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From Supply/Demand to 5 Forces
• What determines the long run supply/demand balance?
(entry/exit barriers)
• What determines the effect of a temporary imbalance on
profitability? (price wars/bargaining powers)
We need to know the determinants of the position and shape
of the 2 curves.
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Using the 5 Forces
• Identify long-run industry profitability
• Identify pressures on profits
• Identify ways to alter industry structure
• Identify attractive positions
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From 5 Forces to Non Cooperative Game Theory
• If you are so smart why aren’t others?
• What would you pay to get into an attractive industry?
We need to know what the entry barriers are, and who will get
over them.
Game Theory
RBV
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Using Non-Cooperative Game Theory
• Forecast industry evolution
• Decide on entry/exit
• Identify critical competitors
• Decide which game you want to play
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Horizontal Trading Relationships: Forecasting Industry Evolution
with Increasing Returns
• Increasing returns are the tendency for that which is ahead to get
further ahead, and for that which loses advantage to lose further
advantage
• small differences in initial conditions can cause large differences
in long-run outcomes
ex: Network effects can dwarf product effects. “Better”
products can lose out to products that “fit better”.
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For Vertical Trading Relationships: From Non-Cooperative to
Cooperative Game Theory
• Which game do we all want to play?
• How can we avoid killing each other?
In the long run we would expect the most efficient industry
structure -that which creates most value in total. Splitting the
pie is another question.
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Cooperative Game Theory and Marketing Strategy
Expected value creation is largest when the following are chosen
optimally
• Product design
• Allocation of manufacturing tasks
• Seller efforts at information supply
• Buyer efforts at information acquisition
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III Creating Competitive Advantage
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
CT Scanners
Aspertame
Flight Safety
Wal-Mart
Marks and Spencer
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Today’s Overview
• Industry, firm, corporate effects
• Generic strategies
• Disaggregating value creation
• Resources and inimitability
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Firms perform very differently. The variance
decomposes roughly like this
• Industry effects
(i)
15%
• SBU effects
(fi)
37.5%
• Corporate effects
(f)
2.5%
• Noise
45%
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Ways to Create More Value Than the Industry Average
• Differentiation: wtp , soc (Goldman)
• Cost Leader: wtp , soc (Enterprise)
• Dual Advantage: wtp , soc (McDonalds)
wtp
Value
soc
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Two Simple, But Critical, Points
• your strategy should be based on the strengths that
differentiate you from competitors, your resources.
• to decide on a strategy, you therefore need to identify those
resources.
• It may not be necessary to worry about creating more, or new,
resources.
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What Are We Good At?
Diagnosis: Disaggregating Value Creation
wtp= u1a1+ u2a2
soc = c1i1+ c2i2
u – varies by target segment
– measured by market research
a – given by product design
– measured by market research
c – varies by details of procurement
– measured from accounting data
i
– given by production process design
– measured from accounting data
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Realized Vale per Potential Customer =
F(m,s) (wtp – soc) – m – s
= F(m,s) [u(a(i)) – c(i)] – m – s
F = Fraction buying
m = Seller Marketing costs
S = Buyer search costs
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You create value when you do what no one else can do
In most cases other players can pick segments (u), product
designs (a), suppliers (c), and inputs (i) from the same menu
as you can.
Most differences are in the a(i) and F(m) functions.
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Reasons for Competitive Advantage
• Why would it be cheaper for P&G to launch a new product?
– Reputation with retailers
– Leverage brand names
• Why would it be cheaper for P&G to design a new product?
– Established set of routines
– Already have designed similar products
• Why would P&G have lower manufacturing costs?
– They have a patent
– They can gain economics of scope in transport
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Resources
Why competitors can’t/won’t get them
• Unique and owned by you
» patent
• Unique and can’t be sold
» Smith and Jones
• Not clear how to create it
» culture
• Not clear what it is
» good at X
• Preemptive first mover advantages
» awareness
• Dynamic return to scale
» experience
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From Leveraging to Building Competitive Advantage
• If several identical competitors have symmetric information, the
expected return to investments in resources is zero (ex ante).
Resources are created in three ways
1) based on existing resource asymmetries
2) as results of lucky outcomes
3) by taking advantage of slow or sleeping competitors
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Productive Social Networks
Hard to
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Understand
Plan
Imitate
grow
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Complex Resources
Not enough to be good at one thing
Components + coordination
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Resources that cannot be purchased directly
• If the value is vand competitors bid p1, p2, etc., the
winning bidder will not make money.
• If the bids are valued at p1 + e1, p2 + e2, etc. and the
e’s are random variables, the winner may do quite
well.
Ex machines vs. brand awareness
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IV Challenging Competitive Advantage
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
Southwest Air
Head Ski
Complaints
SAS
TV Networks
Brokerage
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A start-up needs to use its initial resources to
build a new set of resources that
• can be leveraged
• are sustainable
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Resources of start-ups
• Small social networks
• Ideas
• Management skills
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Today’s Overview
• Ways to Attack
• Times to Attack
• Vulnerability of Incumbents
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The Two Principal Ways to Challenge Competitive
Advantage Are
• Resource Imitation
• Resource Substitution
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Imitation of Leader Resources
• won’t make you a by winner
• often requires mass and size to succeed
• occasionally you can imitate in a new niche
• is always an option
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Development of Substitute Resources
a) offer customer a different set of attributes
b) use new technology to produce current attributes
• in either case you would like to do this in such a way that it is
hard for the leader or third parties to imitate you
• the problem is that you need ideas
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Turbulence in the Environment -Needs, Customers,
Suppliers, Technology -may open the Door for
Attack by Upsetting the Resource-StrategyEnvironment Fit of Leaders
The key is to
• read the change better than others
• take advantage of it faster
• acquire new resources cheaply
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Competitive Advantages tend to be long, but not
infinitely, lived
Excess profits may have a half life of 10 years
Apparently strong leaders often develop serious weaknesses.
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Ceterus Paribus, One would prefer Resources that
have more flexible Applications
• can select best use
• may be able to put to more uses
• robust to changes in environment
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In practice, many resources can only create value
under a narrow set of circumstances.
• Such resources are cheaper to create
• fewer competitors have a chance to develop such resources
less competition
• commitment and preemption requires narrowness
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When the environment changes, some resources
turn into handicaps
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Explicit contracts
Implicit contracts
Culture
Reputation
Brand names
Leader may be fat and lazy
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NO ONE IS IMMUNE FROM ATTACK
IT IS A QUESTION OF TIMING
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V Creating Corporate Advantage
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
Costco
Newell
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Today’s Overview
• Basic questions and facts
• Value and diversity
• Costs of making it happen
• What does corporate strategy mean for marketing strategy
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Questions
• What is the appropriate scope of this firm?
• How does the corporation create value through its multimarket activities?
• How should the company be organized to make this happen?
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Stylized Facts
There are very few single product firms.
Firms that are very diversified have lower average returns on
capital.
Most companies share very general resources: legal, control
systems, capital budgeting systems, etc.
More specific resources are rarely shared across industries.
More diversified companies most often participate in “simple”
industries
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A given resource confers different levels of
advantage in different markets.
Best
Second
3rd
4th
5th
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Some resources confer relatively large advantages
in relatively few markets.
Others confer smaller advantages in more markets.
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There are administrative costs associated with
sharing or transferring of resources.
The size of headquarters reflect part of these costs.
If the resource confers small advantages, it has to be
cheap to transfer.
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Corporate Marketing Strategy
In most large companies, there is significant corporate
involvement in marketing strategy
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umbrella branding, logos
other reputation with buyers
logistics -sharing trucks
cross-selling -sharing sales forces
information about customers
process skills, e.g. npd.
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Making It Happen
It is important to be very clear about
• what each resource is
• how it is benefiting each business
• how the application is implemented
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VI Marketing Strategy -Course Wrap Up
What is Marketing Strategy?
Finding Profit Opportunities
Creating Competitive Advantage
Challenging Competitive Advantage
Creating Corporate Advantage
We are here!!
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Marketing Strategy -1960’s Style
• Identifying customer needs
• Designing products to satisfy needs
• Choose 4 P’s for monopoly advantage
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Marketing Strategy -2000+
• Identifying needs and resources
• Designing products to create value
• Choose efficient selling formats
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Important Concepts and Frameworks
• Resource-Based Analysis
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Diagnosis through costs and market research
Leverage!!
Creation in the cover of dark
Sustainability
Substitution in times of turbulence
Sharing across products
• Cooperative Game with Suppliers, Buyers, and Complementors
– Value created = wtp – soc
– Value captured
– Costs of supplying + gathering information
Increasing returnsExplicit, structured thinking about how you
will create and capture value in a sustainable way.
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Becoming. If you ask young men what they want to accomplish by the time they
are 40, the answers you get fall into two distinct categories. There are those -the
great majority -who will respond in terms of what they want to have. This is
especially true of graduate students of business administration. There are some
men, however, who will answer in terms of the kind of men they hope to be.
These are the only ones who have a clear idea of where they are going.
The same is true of companies. For far too many companies, what little thinking
goes on about the future is done primarily in money terms. There is nothing
wrong with financial planning. Most companies should do more ofit. But there is
a basic fallacy in confusing a financial plan with thinking about the kind of
company you want yours to become. It is like saying, “When I’m 40, I’m going
to be rich.” It leaves too many basic questions unanswered. Rich in whatway?
Rich doing what?
Source: SeymourTilles,”How to Evaluate Corporate Strategy,” Harvard Business Review, July-August 1963, p.112
15.834 Marketing Strategy