Transcript Demonstration of NOx Emission Controls for Gas Compressor

Baton Rouge 8-hr Ozone Modeling
Technical Review Meeting
Presentation to the
LDEQ/AQSD
&
8-hr Ozone SIP Coalition
July 27, 2006
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Today’s Presentation
•
•
•
•
•
Conceptual Model of 8-hr Ozone
Episode Analysis
Modeling System
Modeling Domain
Emission Inventory Development
– Area & Point Sources
– Motor Vehicles (on-road & off-road)
– Biogenics & Fires
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Today’s Presentation
• Initial/boundary conditions
• Use of Probing Tools
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Conceptual Model
• Baton Rouge is a Marginal 8-hr Ozone
nonattainment area
– Single 2003 exceedance DV:
• LSU = 86 ppb
– Four 2005 exceedance DVs:
• LSU = 96 ppb
– 2006 exceedances:
• Will not attain standard by June 2007 as
required
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Conceptual Model
– Likely “bump-up” to Moderate area
• Attainment date: June 2010
• Spatial distribution
– Four key exceedance monitors
• LSU, Baker, Carville, Port Allen
• Aligned south-to-north along river
• Other monitors mostly outside & south of
Baton Rouge
– Likely interaction between urban,
industrial, and biogenic emissions
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Conceptual Model
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Conceptual Model
• Temporal distribution
– Diurnal: classic 12 – 4 PM peaks
• Evidence of ozone cloud transport site to site
• No obvious late AM ROFEs or THOEs
• Possible early PM ROFEs or THOEs
– Weekly: no clear-cut weekday/weekend
dependencies – more analysis needed
– Seasonal: trends toward late spring,
early fall multi-day, multi-site episodes
• In last few years, mid-summer episodes are
typically 1-day, few sites
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Conceptual Model
Hourly Ozone: 28-30 September, 2004
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
0
9/28
9/29
9/30
Date
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10/1
Conceptual Model
• Weather requirements
– Stagnation, light/variable winds under
high pressure
• Exceedances independent of wind direction
– Clear skies
– Temperatures do not need to be hot
• Many exceedances in low 80’s F
• Emissions-driven, not heat-driven
– Few prolonged hot summer episodes
• Excessive PBL venting or Gulf breeze?
Recent interannual climate?
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Conceptual Model
• Regional transport
– Needs 2-3 day transport times
• Recent summer episodes are too short
• Some multi-day episodes are clearly caused
by local stagnation, re-circulation
• Some multi-day episodes establish
consistent transport corridors from midwest,
Ohio Valley, south-east U.S.
– Choose episodes that represent mix of
conditions
• Season, meteorology, transport, WE/WD
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Episode Analyses
• Screened 14 episodes from 20002004
– 2005 de-emphasized
• Concern about availability of emissions data
• Reduced to 6 candidates
– Max exceedance monitor-days at 4 key
monitors
– Min number of modeling days
– Different times of year
– Recent episodes
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Episode Analyses
• 6 candidates
– May 19-30, 2003 (M, Sa, W, Th)
– September 28-30, 2004 (W, Th)
– April 12-30, 2003 (Su, M, F, Su, M, Tu)
– October 4-6, 2003 (Sa, Su)
– May 4-9, 2004 (Tu, W, Th, Sa)
– August 11 – September 5, 2000 (F, Su,
Th, F, Sa, Su, M, F, Sa, W, Th, F, Sa, Su)
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Episode Analyses
• Comparison to CART analysis
Table 3-6. CART Bins for 4 ranked episodes for which data are available (Source: ICF,
2005).
Rank
3
1
5
2
•
•
•
•
•
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Episode
April 2003
May 2003
May 2004
September 2004
Bin 10 (22%)
Bin 20 (24%)
Bin 25 (33%)
Bin 27 (10%)
Bin 35 (11%)
CART Bins for Exceedance Days
10, 18, 18, 25, 25
6, 27, 28
6, 10, 19, 20, 25
29, 31
Episode Analyses
• Final 2-3 episodes need to be
selected from 6 candidates
– Input from advisory group
– Consider schedule, resources, and preexisting datasets
– July 31 draft Protocol documents
conceptual model for each of 6 episodes
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Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 19-30 May, 2003
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
0
5/19
5/20
5/21
5/22
5/23
5/24
5/25
Date
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5/26
5/27
5/28
5/29
5/30
5/31
Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 28-30 September, 2004
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
0
9/28
9/29
9/30
Date
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10/1
Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 12-30 April, 2003
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/2
4/3
Date
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5/1
2
4/1
0
Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 4-6 October, 2003
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
0
10/4
10/5
10/6
Date
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10/7
Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 4-9 May, 2004
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
0
5/4
5/5
5/6
5/7
Date
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5/8
5/9
5/10
Episode Analyses
Hourly Ozone: 11 Aug - 5 Sep, 2000
160
BR
BK
CV
PA
140
120
ppbv
100
80
60
40
20
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/3
8/3
9/6
6
8/1
9/5
5
8/1
9/4
4
8/1
9/3
3
8/1
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9/2
2
8/1
Date
9/1
1
8/1
0
Modeling System
• MM5 – Meteorological Model
– Widely used to support regulatory
modeling
• EPS3 – Emissions Processor
– LDEQ is familiar with EPS
• CAMx – Air Quality Model
– Widely used to support regulatory
modeling in south-central U.S.
– Full Chemistry PiG allows evaluation of
HRVOC plumes
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Domain Configuration
• Regional grid (36 km) based on TCEQ
• Intermediate grid (12 km) captures
transport from Midwest and Southeast
• Local grid (4 km) along Gulf Coast,
including Houston
• Vertical grid based on St. Louis
modeling
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Domain Configuration
1800
1440
1080
720
Boston
Minneapolis
Buffalo
360
Milwaukee
Chicago
Washington
Columbus
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Omaha
0
New York
Detroit
Cleveland
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Kansas City St. Louis
Virginia Beach
Louisville
Wichita
-360
Nashville
Tulsa
Oklahoma City
Charlotte
Memphis
Atlanta
Birmingham
-720
Dallas Shreveport
-1080
New Orleans
Austin
Houston
San Antonio
4 km
Tampa
12 km
-1440
Miami
36 km
-1800
-2592 -2232 -1872 -1512 -1152
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36 km MM5
-792
-432
-72
288
648
1008
1368
1728
2088
2448
Domain Configuration
228
Columbus
Omaha
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
108
-12
Kansas City
Louisville
St. Louis
-132
Wichita
-252
Charlotte
Nashville
Tulsa
-372
Oklahoma City
Memphis
-492
Atlanta
Birmingham
-612
-732
Dallas
Jacksonville
-852
-972
-1092
New Orleans
Houston
4 km
-1212
-1332
-72
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Tampa
San Antonio
12 km
12 km MM5
48
168 288 408 528 648 768 888 1008 1128 1248 1368 1488 1608 1728 1848
Domain Configuration
MM5
Layer
34 (top)
33
32
31
30
39
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 (ground)
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Sigma
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
0.550
0.600
0.650
0.700
0.740
0.770
0.800
0.820
0.840
0.860
0.880
0.900
0.910
0.920
0.930
0.940
0.950
0.960
0.970
0.980
0.985
0.990
0.995
1.000
Pres (mb) Height (m) Depth (m) Layer
100
18123
2856
16
145
15267
2097
190
13170
1659
235
11510
1374
280
10136
1173
15
325
8963
1024
370
7938
909
415
7030
817
14
460
6213
742
505
5471
680
550
4791
627
595
4163
582
13
640
3581
543
685
3038
509
730
2528
386
12
766
2142
278
793
1864
269
11
820
1596
174
838
1421
171
10
856
1251
167
874
1083
164
9
892
920
161
910
759
79
8
919
680
78
928
601
78
7
937
524
77
946
447
76
6
955
371
75
964
295
75
5
973
220
74
982
146
37
4
987
109
37
3
991
73
36
2
996
36
36
1
1000
0
0
0
CMAQ/CAMx
Pres (mb) Height (m) Depth (m)
100
18123
7987
280
10136
3106
415
7030
2866
595
4163
1635
730
2528
664
793
1864
443
838
1421
338
874
1083
324
910
759
158
928
601
155
946
447
152
964
295
149
982
987
991
996
0
146
109
73
36
0
37
37
36
36
0
Emission Inventories
• Start-point inventories:
– 2002 CENRAP Base B
– 2002 VISTAS Base G
– 2002 MRPO Base K
– TCEQ inventories and other datasets
• Useful for August/September 2000 episode
• Replace CENRAP data for Texas when
available for other years?
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Emission Inventories
– 2000-2005 LDEQ data, as available
• Stationary point, area
• On-road: VMT, MOBILE6
• Non-road: NONROAD
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Emission Inventories
• Inventory projections
– Specific modeling years (2000-2004,
2009)
• Regional: based on RPOs, EPA, and TCEQ
• Local: future year projections are challenging
due to recent events
– EGU and other large sources:
• Use CEM as available for base case model
performance evaluation
• Use “typical” inventory rates for projected
base and future years
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Emission Inventories
• Biogenics from GloBEIS
– All grids, episode-day specific
– Driven by:
• MM5 and/or temperature observations
• Satellite PAR data
• Land cover/biomass data (GIS, etc.)
– Held constant into 2009 future year
• Fires (wild, agricultural, prescribed)
– As needed, as available
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Initial/Boundary Conditions
• Only needed on 36-km grid
• Use 2002 VISTAS model output fields
– Derive monthly-average diurnally-varying
IC/BCs for base case episodes
• Use 2009 VISTAS model output fields
– If available, as described above
– Otherwise, use 2002 fields
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CAMx Probing Tools
• Ozone Source Apportionment
Technology (OSAT)
– Determines source area/category
contribution to ozone anywhere in the
domain
– Tracks NOx and VOC precursor
emissions, ozone production/destruction,
and initial/boundary conditions
– Estimates ozone production uner NOxor VOC limited conditions
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CAMx Probing Tools
• OSAT
– HOWEVER: it cannot quantify ozone
response to NOx or VOC controls
– Chemical allocation methodologies:
• OSAT: standard approach
• APCA: attributes ozone production to
anthropogenic (controllable) sources only
• GOAT: tracks ozone based on where it
formed, not where precursors were emitted
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CAMx Probing Tools
• PM Source Apportionment Technology
(PSAT)
– Parallel to OSAT operation
– Tracks user-defined groups of species
for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SOA,
Mercury, and primary PM
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CAMx Probing Tools
• Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) for
sensitivity analysis
– Calculates first-order concentration
sensitivity to emissions, initial/boundary
conditions
– Allows estimates of effects of emission
changes
– Allows ranking of source region/
categories by their importance to ozone
formation
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CAMx Probing Tools
• DDM
– Slower than OSAT, but:
• Provides information for all species (not just
ozone)
• More flexible in selecting which parameters
to track
• Better estimate of small emission
perturbation impacts (e.g., control measures)
• Includes sensitivity from non-linear
secondary effects
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CAMx Probing Tools
• Process Analysis (PA)
– Designed to provide in-depth analyses of
all physical and chemical processes
operating in model
– Operates on user-defined species and
any portion of the modeling grid
– Appropriate for evaluating base case
performance
– Recent UNC enhancements
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CAMx Probing Tools
• PA
– Three components:
• Integrated Process Rate (IPR): provides
detailed process rate information for each
physical process (emissions, advection,
diffusion, chemistry, deposition)
• Integrated Reaction Rate (IRR): provides
detailed reaction rate information for all
chemical reactions
• Chemical Process Analysis (CPA): like IRR,
but designed to be more user-friendly and
accessible
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CAMx Probing Tools
• Reactive Tracers (RTRAC)
– Tracks multiple independent reactive gas
and particle tracers
• Tracers operate in parallel to the CAMx host
model
• Allows for several generations of products
• Decay/production uses standard gas-phase
mechanism photolysis and oxidants
• Can output tracer decay rates to a separate
Lagrangian model for “fenceline” dispersion
calculations
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CAMx Probing Tools
• RTRAC
– Designed for primarily for air toxics
• Assumes RTRAC species have minimal
impact on photochemistry
• Each tracer can be “tagged” for source
apportionment
– RTRAC works with IRON PIG
• An optional “sampling grid” capability
passively samples near-source sub-grid
RTRAC surface concentrations within
reactive PiG plumes
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