Transcript document

Pseudoscience
Core 270
Spring 2008
Dr. Sharon Fredericks
What is Pseudoscience?
• Definition: Things presented as science but which
do not meet ______________________________
– Conclusions are NOT derived from valid empirical data
– Contradict currently accepted theories
– Historically tied to the sciences
• Literally means “fake science”
• Based on1
– Vague statements or facts, or outright lies
– Anecdotal evidence, eye-witness accounts or a single
event with no replication
– Faith, emotional ties
Pseudoscience
• Many are “frozen artifacts of earlier
periods”2
– ____________________came before chemistry
– Astrology came before astronomy
• Many scientists practiced pseudoscience2
• Characterized by religious like support of
“elders” in the field2
– Writings of founders revered
Pseudoscience
• For a pseudoscience to be valid, the
definition of a scientific theory must be
met2:
– Ability to _________________________
and ____________________phenomena
–
–
– Explanation or ____________________
exists
Pseudoscience
• In addition, observations and experiments
_____________theory, not ____________it
• Empirical evidence must be2
– Cumulative
– Continuing
– Unambiguous
• Pseudoscientific theories are rarely expressed as
mathematical laws
Pseudoscientists
• Challenging established theories is not a bad
thing
• These scientific heretics were grouped by
Isaac Asimov as1
– Endoheretics: those _______ the scientific
community who challenge through established
means such as peer-reviewed journals
– Exoheretics: those who challenge from the
__________through the media; pseudoscientists
Pseudoscientists
• Typically have little scientific training
• Have a flawed comprehension of the
scientific area
• Skip the _________________________
when presenting ideas
• Rely on ___________________________
or faith and not on well-designed
experiments and evidence
Examples
•
•
•
•
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Astrology
Dowsing
Lysenkoism
Creation science
Paranormal
Phenomena
• Health-related
pseudoscience
• Cryptozoology (Loch
Ness monster,
Bigfoot)
• Graphology
(Personality from
writing)
• Lunar Effect
• Atlantis
Astrology
• Ancient & popular belief that the position of
the stars and planets at the time of one’s
birth influences one’s personality and daily
life (birth sign and horoscope)
• Suffers from very _________________
descriptions that could apply to anyone
– Can not accurately and precisely ___________
__________________________________
• Fails under systematic or scientific
examination
Analysis of Astrology2
• Not ______________________________
– For each planet, constellation, and each possible
relationship between them, there is a different ‘law’
• Not ______________________________
– Laws remain the same before and after discovery of
planets
– Influence of other celestial bodies like asteroids are
ignored
– Constellations have no physical meaning and the
assignment of constellations is arbitrary
– Why are only 12 of the constellations important? 88 exist
according to the International Astronomical Union
Analysis
2
of Astrology
• More stars are now observed in the vicinity of
constellations that were defined by the ancient
Greeks and Babylonians
– Yet astrology has not changed
• Stars move and the constellations change over
time.
– Every 2,167 years, one’s sign moves by one
constellation in terms of position in the sky
• According to IAU boundaries, there are 14
constellations in the Zodiac!
• Finally, astrology is based on the Earth-centered
world view, which is no longer accepted.
Analysis of Astrology2
• Lacks a _________________________________
– No explanation of how planets and constellations will
effect a person at birth
– The influence must be powerful and long lasting to
influence personality and life events.
• 4 known forces of nature are known:
– Gravity, electromagnetic force, strong and weak nuclear
forces
• Nuclear forces only act over short distances
• Electromagnetic forces are not strong enough due to
distance of stars from the Earth
• Gravity is too weak.
• Source must be an unknown force
Evidence Against Astrology
• A poll of thousands of politicians and scientists
showed no sun sign being dominant among each
group, though members in each group share
___________________________characteristics.1
• In an experiment a natal chart was given to
astrologers along with the personality traits (from
a psychological test) of 3 different people. The
astrologers were only able to match the natal chart
to the correct person 1/3 of the time. 1
Dowsing
• The practice of finding underground water using a
forked stick or other tool. Dowsers walk around
until the stick points down.
• Also called water witching and water divining, it
originated in mining districts of Europe in the
Middle Ages.1
• Many thousand productive wells have been
discovered by dowsers, but fails when scrutinized.
• Suffers from post-hoc fallacy3
– A stick pointed to this area and water was discovered;
stick must be a dowsing stick.
– But ______________________________________
Dowsing
• In a county where dowsers are 100% accurate, it
was found that the entire county had ground water
at about the same depth.1
• In South Wales, Australia, it was found that of
1823 dowsed drilled wells and 1758 non-dowsed
drilled wells, 14.7% and 7.4%, respectively, were
dry. Twice as many dowsed wells were dry. 1
• Under ________________________________
conditions, 3 Italian dowsers were not able to find
the one “wet” pipe buried in the ground along with
2 dry pipes in an irregular pattern.1
1
Lysenkoism
• Trofim Lysenko used ______________________
to promote his agriculture innovations.
• An example of where governments promote
pseudoscience
• He had the backing of the Communist Party
during the years of Stalin and Khrushchev in the
former USSR, so his reforms were made into
national policy.
• Lysenko rejected methods of “research and
discourse”.1
Cluster planting theory
• Plants of the same species will not compete
against one another when planted close to
one another in clusters.
– Lysenko declared it to be true, though _______
_____________________________________
– Implementation of this type of planting showed
it to be unsuccessful and was costly to the
government
Transformation of species
• Species can be transformed into other
species quickly
– Example: if a plant grows in an unsuitable
environment, then it will grow buds of a better
adapted species
– Counter to Darwin’s theory of evolution (slow
process of change)
– Evidence was in a Lysenko-controlled journal
– Reports followed of wheat transforming into
rye, barley into oats… but without clear ______
_____________________________________
Theories on increasing agriculture
production
• Instead of doing experiments, Lysenko would test
his ideas on state farms
• Farmers would fill out questionnaires on how the
methods were applied & what the yields were.
• Most farmers reported higher numbers than the
actual harvest, believing that it was in their _____
________________________________________
• Improved yields were not reported as there was
________________________________________
Creation
1
Science
• Creationism involves the book of Genesis in the
bible
– Earth was formed according to what was written and is
6-10 thousand years old
– Fossils are from the great flood of Noah
– Plants & animals were created in their present form
(evolution is wrong.)
• Supported by mainly fundamental Christian
groups
Problem with Creation Science
• Creation science becomes a problem when it is
taught as part of a science curriculum, rather than
a religious doctrine
• Generally used to discredit evolution
• Science draws conclusions from empirical data.
• Creation science _________________________
and looks for evidence to support it and to refute
competing theories
– Creationist Henry Morris believes and tries to prove
that radioactive dating does not work.
Paranormal Phenomena
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Telepathy (mind reading)
Precognition (predicting the future)
Faith healing
Psychic surgery
Psychokinesis (mind bending)
Contacting spirits of the dead
Ghosts
Pyramid power (preserves corpses; sharpens
razors) [Busted on Mythbusters]
Belief of paranormal phenomena is strong among the public.
Paranormal Abilities (ESP)
• An ad hoc hypothesis is one created to explain
away facts that seem to refute one’s theory.5
• Ad hoc hypotheses are common in paranormal
research and in the work of pseudoscientists.
• For example, ESP researchers have been known to
blame the hostile thoughts of onlookers for
unconsciously influencing pointer readings on
sensitive instruments. The hostile vibes, they say,
made it impossible for them to duplicate a positive
ESP experiment.
• Being able to _____________________________
is essential to confirming its validity.
ESP may
1
be …
• _________________________statements initially
and then using facial features of person as clues in
making statements more specific
– E.g., fortune teller
• ___________________________statements that
may be realized as “true predictions” after the fact
– E.g., Nostradamus
• Magic tricks
– psychokinesis
• Coincidence
– Mind-reading
Psychic Detectives
• Seem to only do well in works of fiction
• Information is usually distorted and not
useful
• ________________________________
tests of the abilities of psychic detectives
show that they are no more correct than
people without psychic ability
Parapsychology
• Branch of science studying paranormal
activity, especially ESP and psychokinesis
• Experiments have been performed to test
for paranormal powers
– Many tests show no psi abilites
– Others have had positive results
• Many are flawed in terms of ___________________
• Many contain fraud
• Missing is repeated results – ___________________
__________________________________________
Health-related Pseudoscience
•
•
•
•
A.k.a. medical quackery
Promises of better health, longer life
Solutions for those in pain or the incurable
Examples
–
–
–
–
Fad diets
Alternative medicine
Holistic medicine
Homeopathic medicine
Ploys4
• Psychological reassurance
– We care about you
– Take control of your life.
– Think Positive
• Buzz words
– natural, organic, toxic-free, _____________________.
• Sales Pitch
–
–
–
–
What do you have to lose?
Gentler, safer, no side effects
We treat the cause/correct medical failures
Popular (____________________________________)
More ploys4
• Scientific proof
– Time tested or used for centuries
(____________________________________)
– Backed by ______________ scientific studies
• “…untraceable, misinterpreted, outdated, irrelevant,
nonexistent, and/or based on poorly designed
research …” 4
– Studies are underway
– Too busy getting sick people well
– Take charge of your health or think for yourself
(no need for scientific proof)
Relies on Testimonials
• Positive Testimonials may be due to
– Psychosomatic component/placebo effect/subject bias
– The fact that many medical problems will “disappear”
temporarily or have day-to-day variations in symptoms
• “Individual experience rarely provides a basis for
separating cause-and-effect from coincidence”4
• No studies with ______________________ group
• Promoters want to make ___________________
by selling books, medications, devices, etc.
Homeopathy
• Developed by Dr. Samuel Hahnemann
(1755-1843)2
• Premise: if a substance causes a disease,
then small doses of that substance will cure
the disease
– Contradicts ___________________________
knowledge in the sciences
– Hard to believe that anyone would want to
ingest bacteria, if it is the cause of a disease
– Yet sales are in the hundred of millions of
dollars2
Analysis of Homeopathy
• Lacks a ____________________________
– Diluted samples may not contain a molecule of
the active ingredient
– “memory of the active” 2 ingredient is claimed;
yet we know that water molecules can not have
memory because there is no known mechanism
• Because solutions are very dilute, cures may
be due to:
– The problem curing itself
– ___________________________________
Analysis of Homeopathy
• In addition, most conventional medicines have a
large amount of active ingredient in order to be
effective.
• Most pathogens must be present in large numbers
to induce an immune response
– E.g., 1 million cholera bacteria needed to become ill. If
you drink an elixir with 10,000 bacteria, you will not
become ill2
• Generally there is no evidence of the
effectiveness of a homeopathic cure
• Relies on ________________________________
The 7 Signs of Bogus
6
Science
• Discovery goes straight to the media with ______
_______________________________________
• Discoverer says that work is being suppressed.
– Others are jealous.
– There is a conspiracy2
– “They laughed at Galileo”2
• Discovery is at the ________________________.
– E.g., No clear photos of flying saucers
• Evidence for a discovery is _________________.
The 7 Signs of Bogus
6
Science
• Discoverer says belief is credible because it’s
endured for a long time.
• The discoverer has worked in isolation.
– Scientific work is mostly _______________________.
• New laws of nature must be proposed to explain
discovery.
– “A new law of nature… must not conflict with what is
already known. If we must change existing laws of
nature or propose new laws to account for an
observation, it is almost certainly wrong.”5
Science vs.
7
Pseudoscience
Reproducible results are
demanded.
Failures are searched for
and studied closely.
As time goes on, more is
learned about process.
Evidence, logical and/or
mathematical reasoning.
Results can not be
reproduced or verified.
Failures are ignored,
excused, hidden, lied
about, discounted, etc.
No processes are ever
studied. No progress
made.
Faith, belief; tries to
convert, not convince.
Why do people believe
pseudoscience?1
• People are fascinated by pseudoscience
– UFOs
• People want an easy solution like fad diets
• People tend to believe ______________________
information or want to believe, no matter the
evidence.
– testimonials
• People judge unequally - tending to judge the
evidence for something they want to believe
differently than for something they don’t want to
believe..
– Can I believe? vs. Must I believe?
Why do people believe
pseudoscience?
• People tend to believe 2nd hand and 3rd hand
information like they received it from the
original source.
• Reporters or writers of pseudoscience leave
out important information to make the story
more interesting or mysterious
– No one offers alternative explanations
Skeptical Attitude
• Like the approach to real science, people
should view pseudoscience skeptically
– _______________________evaluate evidence
– Judgment should be based on the evidence and
not on financial, political, or religious reasons
– Be sure that a scientist is not presenting himself
or herself as an expert in an area outside his or
her expertise
Evaluation using
1
SEARCH
Schick & Vaughn:
• State the claim
• Evaluate the evidence
• Alternate hypotheses
• Rate according to
– Criteria (testability, fruitfulness, scope,
simplicity, conservatism) of adequacy each
– Hypothesis
State the claim and Evaluate
evidence
• State what is believed in a clear, specific and
________________________________statement
• Next evaluate the evidence for the claim
– Think about if there are any ________________studies
– Is the evidence related to the claim?
• Consider ________________________
– Sampling bias (only 1 person makes it anecdotal)
– Experimenter bias (what kind of stake does the scientist
have?)
– Subject bias (placebo effect)
Alternate hypothesis and Rate
according to Criteria each Hypothesis
• Think about other possible explanations and
rate
• Rating based on 5 criteria
–
–
–
–
–
Testability – can be tested
Fruitfulness – explains more than intended
Scope – applies to more systems
Simplicity – fewest assumptions
Conservatism – more well-accepted theories are
generally more correct
Waste of Pseudoscience2
• As a hobby, it is harmless
• Some give a person spiritual comfort,
psychological support and relief from
psychosomatic ailments
• Problem is when it is pushed as a true science
– Wastes ____________________________________,
which can be used to further improve health and
education of the public
– Talented young people are diverted
– Advice can cause damage
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Lee, Jeffrey A., The Scientific Endeavor: Chapters 7 and
8, Addison-Wesley-Longman, Inc., San Francisco, CA,
2000.
Ben-Ari, Moti, Just a Theory: Exploring the Nature of
Scinece (Chapter 6), Prometheus Books, Amherst, NY,
2005.
www.skepdic.com/posthoc.html
www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/ploys.ht
ml
www.skepdic.com/adhoc.html
www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/signs.ht
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www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/pseudo.
html