Transcript PPT Slides -- January 30 - Peace and Conflict Studies

PACS 4500
Senior Seminar in
Peace and Conflict Studies
Section 001
Guy Burgess
Reading Reflections / D2L Grades
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Level of Effort
Number of Points
Evidence of Having Done the Readings
Personal Reflections
Timeliness
State Department
Complex Problems
Inequality
• Problems at the Top
– Assortative Mating
– The Super Star Effect
– Money
Addiction/Boundless Greed
– Others?
• Problems the Bottom
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Single Parenting
Crimes/Incarceration Rates
Unemployment History
Low Educational
Expectations
– Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking
– Others?
• Systemic Problems
– Automation
– Kludgeocracy
– Reserve Army of the
Unemployed
– Zero-Some Mentality
– Matthew’s Law
– Stress Limits on
Compassion
– Under-Performing Schools
– Lance Armstrong Effect
– Others
All Big Problems Are Complex
Problems
Wire These Problems So Intractable
?
Complex Adaptive Systems
General Systems Theory
Levels of Systems
Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”
 Framework
 Clockwork
Complicated Systems
 Throughput
 Feedback
 Cellular
 Botanical
 Zoological
Complex Systems
 Psychological
 Social
Evolutionary Roots As Toolmakers
Complicated Systems
Mechanical
Metaphorbased
Complicated Systems
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ve4M4UsJQo
Directed from Washington Model
Complicated “Chain of Command”
General Systems Theory
Levels of Systems
Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”
 Framework
 Clockwork
Complicated Systems
 Throughput
 Feedback
 Cellular
 Botanical
 Zoological
Complex Systems
 Psychological
 Social
Complex Systems
Organic
Systems and
Metaphors
Mermeration
http://vimeo.com/31158841
Non-Human Eco-Systems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_Bx1mdVMyc
Human Eco-Systems
http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2013/06/10/190468911/the-most-dangerous-traffic-circle-in-the-world
Characteristics of Complex Systems
 Multitudes of independent actors each
seeking to advance their own self-interest
based on their image of their
environment and their problem-solving
algorithm
 Such systems are evolve and are not
designed
 There are no control points
Ecodynamics
NOT Environmental Correctness
Evolutionary Features
 Creation processes
 Propagation/reproduction processes
 Selection processes
 Everything evolves
Ecosystems Don’t Care
 Individuals care – things that are bad for
some individuals are undoubtedly better
for others
Components of Creation
 Energy
 Materials
 Information
 Physical structure of matter
 DNA -- biogenetics
 Learned behavior -- noogenetics
Physical evolution
Biological evolution
 Species
 Behaviors
 Structures
Biological Ecodynamics
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Mutation
Selection
Niche
Relationships
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Mutualism
Commensalism
Amensalism
Competition
Antagonism (Predation, Parasitism)
Neutralism
Darwin and Smith
Social Eco-dynamics
 Things that evolve
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Social roles
Human artifacts
Ideas
Behaviors
Everything
Social Eco-dynamics
 Evolution of information (Quincy
Wright)
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Language
Writing
Printing
Digital information
Evolutionary Tracks
Competing Tracks
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Free world
Power with
democracy (small “d”)
Invisible hand
Compassionate
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Slave world
Power over
Tyranny
Invisible fist
Selfish
Evolutionary Actors
Grassroots citizens
Selection/De-selection Determinants
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Situational awareness
Analytical capabilities
Collaborative capabilities
Ability to avoid “traps” (attractors)
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Tragedy of the Commons
Extreme destructive escalation
Unrealized opportunities for collaboration
Misunderstanding of the facts
Misunderstanding of others
Metaphors: Herding Cats?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk
7yqlTMvp8
Moving Food Bowls?
Conductor vs. Improvisation
Orchestra Model
Jazz Band Model
Strategic Corporal
The E-Bay vs. Unity of Effort
Specialization, Division of Labor
Massively Parallel Peacebuilding
Micro, Meso, Macro Peacebuilding
Fractals
Remediality, Incrementalism
Herbert Simon
Charles Lindblom
Complicated vs. Complex Systems I
Complicated
 Engineering View
 System Consciously
Designed by Humans

Complete Plans of the
System Are Available

Unified Command-andcontrol Structure
Complex
 Medical View
 System Evolved
Through Processes of
Natural and Social
Selection
 No Plans Exist—Only
Observational Studies
and Theories
 Decentralized, Multiple
Independent Actors

Deterministic
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Adaptive / Chaotic
Complicated vs. Complex Systems II
Complicated
 Workings of all system
components are
understood
 Complete repair
possible
 Applies to simpler,
designed systems
Complex
 Workings of only some
system components
understood
 Only incremental
fixes/improvements
 Applies to complex,
real-world systems

Space shuttle
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Medicine,
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Computers
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Ecosystem management,
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Internet,
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Economy,
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Social conflict
Complicated vs. Complex Systems III
Complicated
 All malfunctions can be
troubleshooted and
repaired (given
sufficient funds and
political will)
Complex
 Some problems
(pathologies/diseases)
can be diagnosed and
treated, others cannot—
treatment varies from:
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Complete Cure
Symptomatic Relief
No Successful Treatment
-- Chronic Condition -“Live with It”
No Successful Treatment
-- “Terminal”
Focus on the most
threatening pathologies
Learning Accelerator