Transcript Presentation slides for October 2012 community meetings.

North Slope
Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
A Bureau of Land Management Project
North Slope Borough Planning Commission
Barrow
October 30, 2014
Contents of this presentation
• A quick review of the project
• Various players in the project
• Your role
• Progress so far – examples of
products
• Our future plan
BLM’s Landscape Approach
Rapid & Other
Ecoregional
Assessments
Project-level
Monitoring
for Adaptive
Management
Landscapescale & other
Inventories
Science
Integration
Field
Implementation
AIMMonitoring at
multiple scales
Ecoregional
Direction
Local-scale
assessment,
inventory, and
monitoring
What is an REA?
REAs :
• Identify things of value in the environment
and how they are changing over time, and
what may be causing that change
• Focus on large areas and look at the really
big picture instead of a particular lake or
river
What does an REA provide?
REAs do not make decisions or allocate
resources
They provide information and tools for
land managers
•
•
•
•
Current status of things of value in the environment
Future status (25, 50 years out)
Identify data gaps and science needs
Suggestions for land managers on how they might use
this information
North Slope Ecoregion Assessment Area
Roles and responsibilities
Project Team
A team of scientists and researchers from UA
• Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP),
• Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), and
• Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP)
Facilitator from Margaret J. King and Associates.
Assessment Management Team (AMT)
A team of land managers and experts in land management from various
federal and state agencies that guide the project
Technical Team (Tech Team)
Experts in various relevant science fields that evaluate and advise on the
technical aspects
Assessment Components
Management Questions (MQs)
Conservation Elements (CEs)
Change Agents (CAs)
Conservation elements (CEs)
These are the things of value in the
environment . They can be:
On land
In water
Environment and
associated conditions
Land cover (Ex: coastal Aquatic cover (Ex:
plain)
shallow connected
lakes)
Individual species
Ex: Caribou
Ex: Arctic grayling
Change agents
They change the status of the conservation
elements
Five primary agents of change:
•
•
•
•
•
Human uses
Climate change
Fire
Permafrost
Invasive species
How it all works
REAs collect and compile data, and estimate
these impacts
Change Agent
Conservation Element
Management Question
Land managers, at all levels, can use this
information in their decisions
Process Overview
Phase I
Initiation
Completed
Establish Assessment
Management Team and
technical team
Preliminary management
questions
Assessment Work Plan
Statements of work
Task 1 – 3 Months
 Conceptual
Ecoregional Model
 Management questions (MQs)
 Conservation elements (CEs)
 Change agents (CAs)
Task 2 – 2 Months
II
Task 5 – 3 Months
Compile and Generate
“Source” Datasets
Recommend Potential Datasets
Task 3 – 3 Months
Recommend Methods, Models, and
Tools
Task 4 – 2 Months
Establish Contracts and
Agreements
Phase
Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
Work Plan (REAWP)
Task 6 – 5 Months
 Conduct Analyses
 Generate Findings
Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total
Prepare REA
Documents
Discovering and compiling data
Multi-step process of identifying,
evaluating, and compiling useful data to
answer the MQs.
Compiled data from 20-30 different sources:
• Research organizations and individual
researchers
• Government agencies at all levels
Data Sources for Terrestrial Fine-Filter CEs
Data Provider
Data Type
Species
NatureServe
Range maps - spatial
All terrestrial species
AK Gap Analysis Project
Distribution Models and
occurrence records - spatial
All terrestrial species
USFWS, Migratory Bird
Management
Avian Survey Data - spatial
Willow Ptarmigan, Greater
White-fronted Goose, raptors
National Park Service
Range maps and occurrence
records - spatial
Caribou, Lapland Longspur
University of Alaska Museum
Occurrence records - spatial
All terrestrial species
Toolik Lake Field Station
Occurrence records - spatial
Passerines
ABR Inc.
Occurrence records - spatial
Artic fox, caribou
North Slope Borough Wildlife
Department
Occurrence records and
reports – spatial
Arctic fox, caribou
BLM
Range maps and occurrence
records - spatial
Raptors, caribou
Alaska Department of Fish and
Game
Distribution models - spatial
Caribou
Raptor concentration in riparian areas
Seasonal use of habitat –
Teshekpuk caribou herd
Source: ADF&G, NSB, BLM, CPAI, and ABR in NPRA EIS 2013
Density map for Greater white-fronted Goose
Data Source: Platte, B. 2014. unpubl. data. Migratory Bird Management, USFWS.
Distribution model for Lapland Longspur
Data sources for Climate as a change agent
Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled historical datasets:
• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999
• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999
• Historical Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1
• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1
• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1
Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled projected datasets:
• Alaska Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Snow-day Fraction 771 m CMIP3/AR4
• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100
• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100
• Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 AR4
• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771m AR4
• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771m AR4
• Projected Day of Freeze 771 m AR4
• Projected Day of Thaw 771 m AR4
• Projected Length of Growing Season 771 m AR4
Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab/SNAP Projected permafrost variables (2006-2100) AR5, 5 top models, 5 model average
• Mean Annual Ground Temperature (MAGT)
• Active Layer Thickness (ALT)
Projected (2006-2100) ALFRESCO outputs
• Fire return interval
• Vegetation shifts
Projected Alaska Climate-Biome Shift 2 KM (2001-2099)
• Cliome shifts
Variability assessments
• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Temperature
• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Precipitation
Other data
• Water temperature and snow depth data (IMIQ)
Climate as a change agent - Warm season length
Warm season
length is the
number of days
between the
estimated day
when the
average
temperature
crosses the
freezing point
in the spring,
and the day
when it crossed
that point in
the fall.
Most species of plants and animals are highly sensitive to the length of the
growing season.
Warm season length by community
180
160
140
120
2010s
100
80
2020s
2060s
60
Values are averaged across watersheds (5th level HUCs) surrounding communities.
Error bars represent maximum and minimum values (for 771m pixels) within
those watersheds. Note that variability across watersheds is much greater in
mountainous areas.
Data sources for human activities
US Army Corps of
Engineers
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Erosion
UA Census Bureau
National Center for
Education Statistics
Population
Federal
Employment
Alaska Department of
Labor
State
Local/Regional
Alaska Bureau of Vital
Statistics
Linear
features
Alaska Department of
Education
Block features
Energy
Income
Language
Alaska Housing Finance
Commission
Vital Statistics
North Slope Borough
Planning Department
Education
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
Location
Human footprint: Communities, Camps and
Cabins in the North Slope
Federal (NPS, USFWS, BLM): 180,000 sq. km.
State (selected, patent): 53,000 sq. km.
Native (selected and patent): 25,000 sq. km.
Management Questions: TF3; AF2
What are the measurable and perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou? (Fish)?
Oil and gas
infrastructures shape
files and tabular data
Map identifying location of oil
and gas infrastructures
Conten
t
Analysi
s
Subsistence Advisory Panel
(Meeting minutes, Issues
and recommendations)
Themes
(Areas of concerns used as
key terms)
Targeted
search
Literature
(Reports, Peer-reviewed
articles, ADF&G, NSB,
MMS/BOEM)
Summary report
identifying perceived
impacts of
development on
subsistence harvest of
caribou
Review and
assessment
Perceived impacts of
development on
subsistence harvest of
caribou
Work definitions of
subsistence and
development
Extract
Literature
Measurable dimensions of
‘development’ that impact
‘subsistence’ harvests of
caribou
Source Dataset
Final Result
Intermediate Results
Operator
Acronyms:
NOS: North Slope
Extract
Relationships
between variables
and total harvest
Clip
Data Discovery for
variables
(ADF&G, AKDOL, BEA,
AEDG)
Model identifying the
measurable dimensions of
development that impact
subsistence harvests of caribou
What’s next…
Phase I
Initiation
Completed
Establish Assessment
Management Team and
technical team
Preliminary management
questions
Assessment Work Plan
Statements of work
Task 1 – 3 Months
 Conceptual
Ecoregional Model
 Management questions (MQs)
 Conservation elements (CEs)
 Change agents (CAs)
Task 2 – 2 Months
II
Task 5 – 3 Months
Compile and Generate
“Source” Datasets
Recommend Potential Datasets
Task 3 – 3 Months
Recommend Methods, Models, and
Tools
Task 4 – 2 Months
Establish Contracts and
Agreements
Phase
Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
Work Plan (REAWP)
Task 6 – 5 Months
 Conduct Analyses
 Generate Findings
Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total
Prepare REA
Documents
Identify Focal Areas
Identify Risks & Opportunities
What we request from you
Encourage dialogue in your communities
Follow our newsletters and keep yourself
informed
Feel free to contact us with your ideas
Encourage others to contact us with their ideas
We will come back around completion.
Review
Questions?
Observations?
Comments?