Transcript QMWG Update to WMS 091118

QSE Managers Working
Group
Meeting Notes
November 10, 2009
Report to WMS
November 18, 2009
Jennifer Troutman – Vice Chair
QSE Managers Working Group
Topics





Wind Plant Availability Website
Wind Generation Forecast Accuracy Analysis
Ancillary Services Procurement Methodology
Load Forecasting Accuracy
Decommitment Process for RPRS
Wind Plant Availability Website
 Approximately 30 users are entering
outages
 Difficult to determine how many Market
Participants that translates into
 Some Market Participants reporting that
the AWS outage scheduler can only be
used for one hour at a time
 For example, for an outage for HE 2-10, 9
separate outages would have to entered
 ERCOT going to perform high level review
whether data is improving forecast
WGRPP Forecast Accuracy
Analysis
 ERCOT is now receiving good MET
data for all points from over 50 WGRs
 Additional improvement and increase in
the number of points being submitted
 ERCOT was to analyze impact of
moving from a P80 to P50
 Some members may draft PRR to at least
change to a P50 forecast in the on peak
hours
WGRPP Forecast Accuracy
Analysis
Based on Day Ahead resource plans submitted by QSE’s compared to
aggregate WGRPP AWS forecast in order to scale the STWPF.
Mean Absolute
Percent Error
(Capacity in
Denominator) (Abs(Estimated
Output - Scaled
STWPF)/Total
Name Plate WGR
Capacity)
Mean Actual
Estimated
Output
Standard
Deviation of
Estimated
Output **
Mean Absolute
MW Error
(Abs(Estimated
Output - Scaled
STWPF))
Mean Absolute
Percent Error
(Output in
Denominator) (Abs(Estimated
Output - Scaled
STWPF)/Estimated
Output) *
All Hours
1816.14
1423.04
697.45
92.87%
8.24%
Off-Peak Hours (1-6,23,24)
2230.68
1566.33
873.05
126.45%
10.30%
On-Peak Hours (7-22)
1608.87
1298.61
609.64
76.07%
7.20%
Hour Ending 23-24 and 1-2
2339.49
1546.13
986.71
92.78%
11.64%
Hour Ending 3-6
2121.86
1585.23
759.39
160.13%
8.97%
Hour Ending 7-10
1743.41
1428.61
627.85
110.94%
7.42%
Hour Ending 11-14
1454.21
1364.51
460.85
74.02%
5.45%
Hour Ending 15-18
1444.21
1140.44
583.86
56.68%
6.91%
Hour Ending 19-22
1793.64
1216.77
766.02
62.65%
9.04%
September Data in Histogram
Risk of Shortages
Risk of Over Commitment
WGRPP Forecast
 ERCOT is now providing the forecast
to WGRs via XML
 ERCOT going to issue notice soon that
it will discontinue providing it via email
 ERCOT Client Services going to poll
WGRs to be sure that no one is still
using email process
Load Forecast Analysis
 QMWG going to work with ERCOT to
schedule Load Forecasting Workshop
 Will coordinate efforts with the PUCT
 Reviewed ERCOT’s Replacement
Reserve Service Monthly Reports
 Going to ask ERCOT SME to review in detail
at next meeting
Load Forecast Accuracy
Load Forecast Accuracy
By Season
By Year
Last 4 Months
Decemb
er,
January,
Februar
y
March,
April,
May
June,
July,
August
Septem
ber,
October,
Novemb
er
2007
2008
2009
July
'09
August
'09
Septem
ber '09
Octobe
r '09
3.06%
3.33%
2.48%
3.43%
2.94%
3.30%
3.00%
2.93%
3.01%
3.92%
3.09%
2.66%
3-6
2.50%
3.77%
1.96%
2.15%
2.43%
2.19%
2.70%
2.50%
1.96%
2.60%
1.84%
2.69%
7-10
2.76%
3.71%
2.60%
2.23%
2.77%
2.48%
2.99%
2.70%
2.04%
1.92%
2.02%
2.75%
11-14
3.50%
4.84%
3.34%
2.76%
3.49%
3.51%
3.62%
3.35%
2.54%
2.17%
4.02%
2.75%
15-18
4.08%
3.95%
3.68%
4.24%
4.34%
4.84%
3.81%
3.78%
3.49%
3.31%
6.20%
3.57%
19-22
4.09%
3.21%
3.72%
4.97%
4.09%
5.15%
3.66%
3.76%
3.99%
4.50%
4.92%
3.09%
All Hours
3.33%
3.80%
2.96%
3.30%
3.34%
3.58%
3.30%
3.17%
2.84%
3.07%
3.68%
2.92%
Hours
Ending
All Days
23-24 and
1-2
Decommitment Process for RPRS
 ERCOT is drafting PRR language for this
 Operations Support
 Settlements
 Market Participants want to focus efforts
on creating a Nodal decommitment
process
Next Meeting
 Next Meeting: December 2, 2009
 Topics
 Wind Generation Forecast Accuracy
 Load Forecasting Accuracy
 Nodal Decommitment Process for RUC
 Wind Generation Nodal Issues