Transcript Observed Mean Gains by Spring

Goal Setting Using Performance Series
To set goals using Performance Series (aka Ed Performance or
Scantron), the computer adaptive Reading and Mathematics
assessment, you need to understand the Observed Means
Gains.
These tables tell you what the average scale scores were for
students nation-wide that took the PS assessments in the Fall
and in the Spring.
We can apply a goal-setting principle using these Observed
Means Gains. We locate our target population student within a
quartile, then add the average mean gain plus the standard
deviation (or a portion of that standard deviation) and that gives
us a realistic but ambitious goal.
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The PS Observed Mean Gains Tables can
help us set reasonable but ambitious goals.
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Gr 3 Reading: Observed Avg. Gains
2900
2763.65
2700
2661.44
2563.88
2500
2373.95
2300
2399.54
Fall
Spring
2180.64
2100
1900
2099.53
1844.86
1700
1500
1st Q'tile
2nd Q'tile
3rd Q'tile
4th Q'tile
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What do we mean by Quartiles?
We divide the 3rd graders nation-wide that took the
Fall PS reading assessment into four equal groups…
2600
The top performing group (Q4) had a mean
score of 2661.44.
2400
The 2nd highest performing group (Q3) had
a mean score of 2399.54.
2200
The 3rd highest performing group (Q2) had
a mean score of 2180.64.
2000
1800
The lowest performing group (Q1) had a
mean score of 1844.86.
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Observed Mean Gains by Spring
If we keep track of the students in each of
these four groups, by Spring they have the
following mean scores:
2600
The mean for Q4 moved up 102.20 points
to 2763.65.
2400
2200
2000
1800
The mean for Q3 moved up 164.34 points
to 2563.88.
The mean for Q2 moved up 193.31 points
to 2373.95.
The mean for Q1 moved up 254.67 points
to 2099.53.
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Let’s just look at the Q1 Third Graders:
Although students from the lowest quartile continue to have the lowest scores,
they made higher gains than students from other quartiles.
The Standard Deviation (Std. Dev.) shows us the variation in progress Q1
students made. On average, Quartile 1 students gained 254 points, plus or
minus 210.99 points.
254.67 ± 210.99
Gains between
254 and 465
are ambitious
and realistic for
Q1 3rd graders.
43
254
465
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A student example
Johnnie obtained a Reading Scale Score of 1788 in the fall,
which placed him in the lowest quartile of 3rd graders.
The average gain for students in that quartile is 254 scale
score points, so we would expect him to go up to about 2042
as a result of regular instruction.
Since he is a focus group student, he will receive additional
support during the year, so we would expect him to
accelerate his learning. How much? The most improved
students in that quartile went up 465 points, so we should set
a goal that expects him to go up somewhere between 254
and 465 points. Perhaps we’ll add half the standard deviation
(106 points) to the average gain, and set his goal at 2148.
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