Transcript Chapter 4?: Comparing Two Quantitative Variables

Section 6.1
Exploring Quantitative Data
Quantitative vs. Categorical Variables

Categorical
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Labels for which arithmetic does not make
sense.
Sex, ethnicity, eye color…
Quantitative

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You can add, subtract, etc. with the values.
Age, height, weight, distance, time…
Visualizing Single Variable Data
Categorical
Quantitative
Bar Graph
Dot Plot
Comparing Two Groups Graphically
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Categorical
Quantitative
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
negative perception
positive perception
positive question
negative question
Notation Check
Statistics
Parameters
(x-bar) Sample
Average or Mean
 𝑝 (p-hat) Sample
Proportion

𝑥

𝜇 (mu) Population
Average or Mean
𝜋 (pi) Population
Proportion or
Probability
Statistics summarize a sample and
parameters summarize a population
Exploration 6.1

Haircut Prices
Before
After
Section 6.2
Simulation-Based Approach
for Comparing Two Means
Comparison to Proportions
We will be comparing means, much the
same way we compared two proportions
using randomization techniques with cards
and an applet.
 The difference here is that instead of two
categorical variables, our explanatory
variable will be categorical and the
response variable will be quantitative
variable.
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Bicycling to Work
Example 6.2
Bicycling to Work
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Does bicycle weight affect commute time?
British Medical Journal (2010) presented the
results of a randomized experiment
conducted by Jeremy Groves.
Groves wanted to know if bicycle weight
affected his commute to work.
For 56 days (January to July) Groves tossed a
coin to decide if he would bike the 27 miles to
work on his carbon frame bike (20.9lbs) or
steel frame bicycle (29.75lbs).
He recorded the commute time for each trip.
Bicycling to Work
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What are the observational units?
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Each trip to work on the 56 different days.
What are the explanatory and response
variables?
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Explanatory is which bike Groves rode
(categorical – binary)
Response variable is his commute time
(quantitative)
Bicycling to Work
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Null hypothesis: There is no association
between which bike is used and commute
time
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Commute time is not affected by which bike is
used.
Alternative hypothesis: There is an
association between which bike is used
and commute time
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Commute time is affected by which bike is
used.
Bicycling to Work
In chapter 5 we used the difference in
proportions of “successes” between the two
groups.
 Now we will compare the difference in
averages between the two groups.
 The parameters of interest are:
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µcarbon = Long term average commute time with carbon
frame bike
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µsteel = Long term average commute time with steel
frame bike.
Bicycling to Work
Mu (µ) is the parameter for population
mean.
 Using the symbols µcarbon and µsteel, restate
the hypotheses:
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H0: µcarbon = µsteel OR
 Ha: µcarbon ≠ µsteel OR

µcarbon – µsteel = 0
µcarbon – µsteel ≠ 0
Bicycling to Work
Remember
 The hypotheses are about the association
between commute time and bike used, not
just his 56 trips.
 Hypotheses are always about populations
or processes, not the sample data.
Bicycling to Work

Results
Bike type
Carbon frame
Steel frame
Sample
size
26
30
Sample
Sample SD
mean
108.34 min
6.25 min
107.81 min
4.89 min
Bicycling to Work
The sample average and variability for
commute time was higher for the carbon
frame bike
 Does this indicate a tendency?
 Or is it just random assignment and traffic
was heavier on those days?
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Bicycling to Work
Is it possible to get a difference of 0.53
minutes if commute time isn’t affected by
the bike used?
 The same type of question was asked in
Chapter 5 for categorical response
variables.
 The same answer. Yes it’s possible, how
likely though?
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Bicycling to Work
The 3S Strategy
Statistic:
 Choose a statistic:
 The observed difference in average
commute times
𝑥 carbon – 𝑥 steel = 108.34 - 107.81
= 0.53 minutes
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Bicycling to Work
Simulation:
 We can simulate this study with index
cards.
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Write all 56 times on 56 cards.
Shuffle all 56 cards and randomly
redistribute into two stacks:
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One with 26 cards (representing the times for
the carbon-frame bike)
Another 30 cards (representing the times for
the steel-frame bike)
Bicycling to Work
Shuffling assumes the null hypothesis of
no association between commute time and
bike
 Calculate the difference in the average
times between the two stacks of cards.
 Repeating this many times develops a null
distribution
 Let’s see how this process is sped up with
the two means or multiple means applets.

Bicycling to Work
What does this p-value mean?
 If mean commute times for the bikes are
the same, and we repeated random
assignment of the lighter bike to 26 days
and the heavier to 30 days, a difference
as extreme as 0.53 minutes or more
would occur in about 70.5% of the
repetitions.
 Therefore, we don’t have evidence that
the commute times for the two bikes will
differ in the long run.
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Bicycling to Work
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Have we proven that the bike Groves
chooses is not associated with commute
time? (Can we conclude the null?)
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No, a large p-value is not “strong evidence
that the null hypothesis is true.”
It suggests that the null hypothesis is plausible
There could be long-term difference just like
we saw, but it is just very small.
Bicycling to Work
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Let’s use the 2SD Method to generate a
confidence interval for the long-run
difference in average commuting time.
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Sample difference in means ± 2⨯SD of the
simulated null distribution
Our standard deviation for the null
distribution was 1.49
 0.53 ± 2(1.49)= 0.53 ± 2.98
 -2.45 to 3.51.
 What does this mean? (next page)
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Bicycling to Work
We are 95% confident that the true
difference (carbon – steel) in average
commuting times is between -2.45 and
3.51 minutes. Carbon frame bike is
between 2.45 minutes faster and 3.51
minutes slower than the steel frame bike.
 Does it make sense that the interval
contains 0 based on our p-value?
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Bicycling to Work
Scope of conclusions
 Can we generalize our conclusion to a
larger population?
 Two Key questions:
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Was the sample randomly obtained from a
larger population?
Were the observational units randomly
assigned to treatments?
Bicycling to Work
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Was the sample randomly obtained from a
larger population?
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No, Groves commuted on consecutive days
which didn’t include all seasons.
Were the observational units randomly
assigned to treatments?
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Yes, he flipped a coin for the bike
We can draw cause-and-effect conclusions
Bicycling to Work
We can’t generalize beyond Groves and
his 2 bikes.
 A limitation is that this study is that it’s
not double-blind
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The researcher and the subject (which
happened to be the same person) were not
blind to which treatment was being used.
Perhaps Groves likes his old bike and wanted
to show it was just as good as the new carbonframe bike for commuting to work.
Exploration

Exploration 6.2: Lingering Effects of Sleep
Deprivation
Section 6.3: Comparing Two Averages:
Theory-Based Methods
Just as we’ve seen with one proportion,
and two proportions there are simulationbased methods to conduct tests of
significance and theory-based ones.
 Theory-based methods use some
distribution to model our null distribution.
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With the proportions, this is a normal
distribution.
With means we will use a t-distribution.
T-distributions
t-distributions have a similar bell-shape to that of
normal distributions.
 For small sample sizes, the t-distributions we will
use to model our null hypotheses are shorter
and wider than normal distributions with the
same mean and standard deviation.
 As the sample size increases, the curve comes
closer and closer to a normal curve.
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Distributions from previous section
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Bell-shaped.
Centered at 0.
Different Standard Deviations.
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Bike Times (1.50)
Bike Times
Sleep Deprivation (6.52)
Sleep Deprivation
Distributions
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Graphs centered at 0
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Variability (Standard Deviation) depends
on:
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The graphs were generated based on the null
hypothesis that the population means of the
groups are the same.
Not all results are 0 due to sample to sample
variability.
The amount of variability in our samples.
The samples size.
This variability can be predicted.
Distributions
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Will the bell-shape always appear?
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No. It appears when the sample size is large
enough or if the population distributions are
bell-shaped.
Validity Conditions (We can use theorybased techniques if either of the following
is true.)
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Sample sizes of at least 20 in each group.
The distributions of each response variable is
bell-shaped.
Breastfeeding and
Intelligence
Example 6.3
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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A study in Pediatrics (1999) examined if children
who were breastfed during infancy differed from
bottle-fed.
Involved 323 white children recruited at birth in
1980-81 from four Western Michigan hospitals.
Researchers deemed the participants as
representative of the community in social class,
maternal education, age, marital status, and sex
of infant.
Children were followed-up at age 4 and assessed
using The General Cognitive Index (GCI)
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A measure of the child’s intellectual functioning
Also recorded if the child had been breastfed
during infancy.
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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Explanatory and response variables.
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Explanatory variable: If the baby was
breastfed. (Categorical)
Response variable: Baby’s GCI measure at
age 4. (Quantitative)
Is this experimental or observational?
 Can cause-and-effect conclusions be
drawn in this study?
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Breastfeeding and Intelligence
Null hypothesis: There is no association
between breastfeeding during infancy and
GCI at age 4.
 Alternative hypothesis: There is an
association between breastfeeding during
infancy and GCI at age 4.

Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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µbreastfed = Average GCI at age 4 for breastfed
children
µnot = Average GCI at age 4 for children not
breastfed
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H0: µbreastfed = µnot
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Ha: µbreastfed ≠ µnot
(µbreastfed – µnot = 0)
(µbreastfed – µnot ≠ 0)
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
Group
Breastfed
Not BF
Sample
size, n
237
85
Sample
mean
105.3
100.9
Sample
SD
14.5
14.0
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
The difference in means was 4.4.
 If breastfeeding is not associated with GCI
at age 4:
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Is it possible a difference this large could
happen by chance alone? Yes
Is it plausible (believable, fairly likely) a
difference this large could happen by chance
alone? Let’s find out using the multiple means
applet.
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
Meaning of the p-value:
 If breastfeeding were not associated with
GCI at age 4 (our true null) the probability
of observing a difference of 4.4 or more or
-4.4 or less just by chance is 0.01.
Since the sample sizes are considered large
enough (n1 = 237, n2 = 85), we can the
theory-based approach to find the p-value.
Theory-based Applet
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
Again we see we have strong evidence
against the null hypothesis and can
conclude there is an association between
breastfeeding and intelligence.
 In fact we can conclude that breastfed
babies have higher average GCI scores at
age 4.
 We can see this in both the small p-value
(0.015) and the confidence interval that
says the mean GCI for breastfed babies is
0.87 to 7.93 points higher than that for
non-breastfed babies.
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Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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To what larger population(s) would you be
comfortable generalizing these results?
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The participants were all white children born in
Western Michigan.
This limits the population to whom we can
generalize these results.
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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Can you conclude that breastfeeding
improves average GCI at age 4?
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No. The study was not a randomized experiment.
Can’t conclude a cause-and-effect relationship.
There might be alternative explanations for
the significant difference in average GCI
values.
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Maybe better educated mothers are more likely to
breastfeed their children
Maybe mothers that breastfeed spend more time
with their children and interact with them more.
There could be many confounding variables.
Breastfeeding and Intelligence
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Could you design a study that allows drawing
a cause-and-effect conclusion?
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We would have to run an experiment using random
assignment to determine which mothers breastfeed
and which would not. (Though it still can’t be
double-blind.)
Random assignment balances out all other
variables.
Is it feasible/ethical to conduct such a study?
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No. A personal decision can’t be imposed on
mothers.
Strength of Evidence
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We already know:
 As sample size increases, the strength of
evidence increases.
 Just as with proportions, as the sample
means move farther apart, the strength of
evidence increases.
More Strength of Evidence
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We now have standard deviation
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If the means are the same distance apart, but the
standard deviations are quite different. Which gives
stronger evidence against the null?
More Strength of Evidence
 As
standard deviations decreases, the
strength of evidence increases.
Let’s try this out
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Let’s run this test using the simulationbased and theory-based applets.
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Let’s also run the test using SPSS (the
software you will use for Project 1)
Exploration 6.3: Close Friends?