Transcript Climate Change and PlanB large 08Mar17

Climate Change and
iiSBE Plan B
Nils Larsson
International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment
8 March 2017
Climate change overview
3
An unavoidable factor: 90% of urban growth is taking place
in the developing world and these countries want a western
standard of living.
Urban populations in Africa and Asia will double in the next 20 years and their
populations aspire to western standards of living
About
2.5 B
About
1.1 B
UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision (Hoornweg)
The built environment is implicated in many sectors of GHG emissions
4
CO2 emissions have very long-term effects on global temperature and sea level
Source:
IPCC
Source: IPCC AR5
5
A new IPCC publication about extreme events suggest inter alia:
 Projected changes in climate extremes under different emissions scenarios
generally do not strongly diverge in the coming two to three decades, but these
signals are relatively small compared to natural climate variability…;
 Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st
century. It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm
daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st
century at the global scale;
 It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall
from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe…
particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the
northern mid-latitudes;
 There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some
seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased
evapotranspiration;
 It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme
coastal high water levels in the future.
IPCC, 2012: Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor,
and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19.
IPCC WG II, AR5: Summary for Policymakers
RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway.
RCP 2.6 assumes a GHG peak of 490 ppm before 2100, then declining;
RCP 8.5 assumes 1370 GHG emissions by 2100, and rising
see http://www.iiasa.ac.at
7
Specific impacts of high temperatures


Higher temperature increases evaporation rates, which aggravates water
shortages;
Generally, higher temperatures leads to more use of mechanical cooling
which creates more demand for electricity, which in turn creates more
GHG emissions.

Heat waves can cause higher death
rates, especially in the older population.
The estimated extra mortality in eight
European countries from the 2003 heat
wave was 34,897 *;

Electricity demand rose significantly
because of the intense use of cooling
systems, and hydroelectric production
was reduced by 19% because of reduced
river flow rates, and nuclear production
was reduced by 4% because the water
temperatures of river cooling water rose
above acceptable levels.
* J-L. Salagnac, Building Research & Information, July/August 2007
8
IPCC WG II, AR5: Summary for Policymakers
Remember that averages hide extreme highs and lows
9
WG1 AR5 Fig. SPM-8
Average count of floods
per year and river
basins, 1985-2012 in
Europe
From RICS Climatic Risk
Toolkit, 2015
Drought hazard and
frequency in Europe,
1991-2010
From RICS Climatic Risk
Toolkit, 2015
Increased wind speeds will cause high
levels of damage to small structures
Source:
Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coast: A FirstPass National Assessment, Department of Climate
12
Change, Government of Australia, 2009
Overall vulnerability
to Climate Change in
Europe
From RICS Climatic Risk
Toolkit, 2015
From Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 2017
Some EU countries are
performing well;
others not
Predicted climate change impacts on the built environment
from IPCC AR4 (2007), AR5 (2014) and other sources
Global trends
Likelihood of
future trends
Warmer and fewer cold days and nights
over most land areas
Virtually certain
(99% probability)
Warmer and more frequent hot days and Virtually certain
nights over most land areas
(99% probability)
Examples of major projected impacts
Reduced energy demand for heating; increased
demand for cooling, declining air quality in cities
Warm spells / heat wave frequency
increases over most areas.
Very likely
(90% probability)
Reduction in quality of life for those people in warm
areas without appropriate housing; impacts on the
elderly, very young and poor.
Area affected by droughts increases
Likely
Water shortages…reduced hydro generation,
potential for population migration.
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency
Very likely
(or proportion of rainfall from heavy falls),
(90% probability)
increases over most areas.
Disruption of settlements, transport and societies due
to flooding; pressures on urban and rural
infrastructure; loss of property.
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely
Disruption by flood and high winds, loss of insurance,
population migration, loss of property.
Increased incidence of extreme high sea
level (excludes tsunamis).
Costs of coastal protection v. relocation, loss of
insurance, population migration, loss of property.
Likely (long term)
N. Larsson, iiSBE, 2009 & 2016
Examples of links between climate change effects and the building sector
Global effects
Specific effects
Higher global temperatures
Population health impact
Higher summer temperatures Need for more mechanical cooling
Reduced diurnal temp. diff.
Higher operating costs
Increased insect population Increased energy consumption
Need for insect control
High winds
Wind damage to structures
Repair and/or re-build *
Drought
Water supply problems
Soil instability
Forest fires
Ration or import water supplies
Prohibit new construction
Repair and/or relocate *
Rebuild *
Increased precipitation & floods Flood damage
Examples of secondary effects
Rebuild and/or relocate *
* these impacts and actions may result in increases in insurance rates of refusal of new polcies
N. Larsson, iiSBE, 2016
Costs and asset values
According to a recent paper in Nature Climate Change,
... a leading integrated assessment model can be used to estimate the
impact of twenty-first-century climate change on the present market
value of global financial assets.
We find that the expected ‘climate value at risk’ (climate VaR) of global
financial assets today is 1.8% along a business-as-usual emissions
path. Taking a representative estimate of global financial assets, this
amounts to US$2.5 trillion.
However, much of the risk is in the tail. For example, the 99th percentile
climate VaR is 16.9%, or US$24.2 trillion. These estimates would
constitute a substantial write-down in the fundamental value of financial
assets. Limiting warming to no more than 2 °C makes financial sense
to risk-neutral investors—and even more so to the risk averse…
See 'Climate value at risk' of global financial assets, in Nature Climate Change
6, 676-679, 04 April 2016
19
Cumulative climatic cost (40 years) / annual GDP by European country
From RICS Climatic Risk Toolkit, 2015
The problem
Climate change has definitely arrived;
Key industry and government leaders have hesitated too long to
implement adequate long-term mitigation measures;
Measures that have been implemented tend to be of the noregrets and painless variety, but these are not sufficient to make
the major and rapid reductions that are needed;
If no serious measures are introduced quickly, the probability of
serious economic disruption and social unrest is high;
In view of these factors, we believe that regionally-sensitive
plans for more rapid action are urgently needed, and we present
a number of proposals along these lines
21
22
What we must do
What are effective actions in such a context?
We must be ready to…
…invest
now in order to avoid staggering costs and drops in
asset values later;
…
relocate large populations and their supporting infrastructure
and building stocks;
…
be prepared for repair and reconstruction efforts;
…
adapt our buildings and infrastructure to cope with new
conditions;
Most important, we must not let the coming problems divert us
from the vital need to reduce GHG emissions much more rapidly
than we are currently doing, to prevent the problem from
worsening.
23
What are effective actions in such a context?

Even if political realities will limit immediate action, we must
develop plans for measures that can rapidly be implemented
to rapidly reduce GHG emissions;

They must be actionable in the short term;

They must be effective in a variety of specific regions;

That means that we need a series of mitigation measures
that are similar in approach, but differ in implementation;

To achieve this, we need data on the most effective
mitigation actions in many different specific regions.
24
25
Plan B: key types of actions to rapidly
reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
minimize risks of exceeding a 2ºC
global temperature rise.
This section was developed by Nils Larsson of iiSBE with
substantial contributions from Gregor Herda (UN Habitat),
Richard Lorch and Fionn Stevenson (UK), Stella Bezerra
(Brazil), Teresa Coady, Jean Cinq-Mars, John Crace, Gary
Martin and Mark Gorgolewski (Canada), Teresa ParejoNavajas (Spain), Randa Mahmoud (Egypt), Daniel Charles
(France), Ann Edminster (USA), Norman Goijberg (Chile)
and Wynn Cam (Singapore)
26
Appropriate scale for interventions
The generic measures that follow are generally based on
conditions that are related to developed countries with mature
economies and technologies.
They also describe measures that assume leadership by national
and/or large urban governments, but it must be recognized that
complementary initiatives may also need to be launched within
small urban areas, an approach that has been termed
co-producing neighbourhood resilience*.
The argument for this approach is partly one of technical
effectiveness and a need of popular support for tough measures.
It also reflects the need to take into account the very different
conditions in small urban areas and a concern that extreme
conditions caused by climate change may cause social instability.
* See Fionn Stevenson & Doina Petrescu (2016) Co-producing neighbourhood resilience,
Building Research & Information, 44:7
The nature of small urban areas (neighbourhoods)
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, neighborhoods in
Europe and North America were usually defined as
residentially-centered areas, often built around an elementary
school and/or minor retail facilities;
But there were also small urban areas with other occupancy
concentrations. In residential neighborhoods, the emphasis was
often on low-density and, after 1950, on access by vehicles.
In the last 50 years the benefits of higher densities, mixed uses
and preservation of existing older urban areas have become
recognized.
In any case, a wide variety of urban neighborhoods exist, all
with unique characteristics and histories, with differentiated
ownership. These facts require differentiated approaches to
analysis, assessment and policy prescriptions.
27
28
Proposals for key contingency plans
1.
Educate:
Launch public and professional education programs to provide
an understanding of regional effects of climate change, and to
promote the need for conservation in energy, water and
materials, for students, investors, building operators, office
tenants and residential owners or tenants.
2.
Train:
Establish intensive regional training programs for regulators,
renovation contractors, simulation specialists and others who
are key to the upgrading of performance in new and existing
buildings.
3.
Explain the measures:
Enlist professionals and non-government organizations to help
explain the need for this set of key actions to local politicians
and business leaders.
29
Proposals for key contingency plans
4.
Reduce carbon emissions:
Introduce policy measures to radically and rapidly cap and reduce
carbon emissions linked to the built environment. Such measures
have the added benefit of reducing air pollution.
Possible measures include carbon taxes, cap and trade or personal
allowances. Examples of successful approaches can be found in Tokyo
and British Columbia.
The Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program (TCTP), implemented in 2010, is an
important measure to accelerate the building sector’s emission reduction
to achieve Tokyo’s greenhouse gas target, 25% reduction by 2020 from a
year 2000 baseline level. Data indicate that TCTP has been effective in
reducing energy consumption… to meet … emission reduction goals, to
introduce new technologies, and to raise awareness and drive
behavioural changes for energy demand reduction.
(See Nishida, Hua and Okamoto in Building Research & Information, 44-5/6. )
30
Proposals for key contingency plans
4.
Reduce carbon emissions:
In 2008, British Columbia implemented the first comprehensive and
substantial carbon tax in North America. By 2012, the tax had
reached a level of C$30/t CO2, and covered approximately threequarters of all greenhouse gas emissions in the province…
Empirical and simulation models suggest that the tax has reduced
emissions in the province by 5–15%. At the same time, models show
that the tax has had negligible effects on aggregate economic
performance, though certain emissions-intensive sectors have faced
challenges. Studies differ on the effects of the policy on income
distribution but agree that they are relatively small. Finally, polling
data show that the public initially opposed the tax but now generally
supports it…
B. Murray and N. Rivers. 2015. “British Columbia’s Revenue- Neutral Carbon Tax: A Review
of the Latest ‘Grand Experiment’ in Environmental Policy.” NI WP 15-04. Durham, NC:
Duke University. http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/publications.
Reductions needed to reach 80% reduction
in CO2 emissions in Europe by 2050
From RICS Climatic Risk Toolkit, 2015
32
Proposals for key contingency plans
5.
Reduce locational risks: Prohibit new construction in areas
with a high risk of flooding or fire.
6.
Conserve land: In developed countries, except for cases of
replacement, impose a freeze on new construction and
supporting infrastructure in un-serviced or low-density areas.
There is a need to preserve undeveloped land for agriculture and/or
ecological or recreational areas, and to maximize efficiency of land
that is actually developed.
7.
Encourage urban agriculture: The availability of small and
localized plots of land for urban agriculture will become of
increasing importance as the use of trucks and private
vehicles is discouraged in urban areas.
33
Proposals for key contingency actions
8.
Support urban infill and mixed use:
Establish urban infill programs to make better use of urban land
and to support the viability of local public transport.
High densities can be achieved with mid-rise buildings, and very tall
buildings are not necessarily required.
9.
Limit embodied energy and emissions:
Support adoption of environmental product declarations and
require estimates of life-cycle and embodied emissions for heavy
construction materials in major projects.
Embodied GHG emissions are an increasingly important component of
life-cycle emissions, since added thermal mass can improve operating
performance, but this is often overlooked .
34
Proposals for key contingency actions
10.
Assess performance and track key indicators:
Ensure that performance assessments for major projects take
into account key performance factors that may affect the safety,
function or performance of the subject buildings and surrounding
areas.
11.
Monitor performance and maintain data:
Establish performance monitoring systems and public databases
within urban areas to provide building operators with annual
feedback for action on energy, water key performance factors.
Such databases should provide comparisons of subject buildings with
the performance of reference buildings of the same type.
35
Proposals for key contingency actions
11.
Monitor performance
and maintain data:
For small urban areas,
the EVALOC project in
the UK provides a good
model for participatory
evaluations in six small
urban areas that are
moving towards lowcarbon status. Colours
show different rates of
CO2 emissions.
The program ran from 2011-15
and was sponsored by the UK
Department of Climate Change.
See www.evaloc.org.uk.
36
Proposals for key contingency actions
12.
Clean energy:
Minimize reliance on fossil fuels for
electricity generation, upgrade
power grids to accommodate
renewable input sources, accelerate
the introduction of decentralized
renewable power sources, and
ensure that feed-in tariff policies do
not distort energy markets.
Coal and heavy oils are especially
problematic because of low combustion
efficiencies and high emissions. Note
that an electric car that is recharged
from a system where electricity is
generated by coal is not an example of
clean energy…
37
Proposals for key contingency actions
13.
Limit peak electrical demand:
Rapidly reduce peak loads in electrical
networks through rate structures to meet
demand and to ensure that existing
generating facilities are efficiently used.
Peak demand by electrical equipment in industrial
facilities can be moderated by means of changes
in industrial processes, rate structures, limitation of
operating hours, load ceilings or other relevant
means.
Space cooling systems in retail and commercial facilities
operate for a small number of hours per year, but
at times of maximum peak demand, and this
demand may be reduced by limitation of operating
hours, use of electrical or thermal storage systems
and/or renewable power sources.
38
Proposals for key contingency actions
14.
Appliance and equipment efficiencies:
Prohibit the sale of appliances and equipment that do not meet
high operating efficiency criteria (e.g. "A+++" label in Europe).
15.
Protect critical facilities and infrastructure:
Ensure that facilities and services of critical importance, such
as hospitals, public transportation systems, food supplies,
water and sewage treatment and pumping systems, can remain
functional at a basic level of performance under extreme
conditions.
This measure may require provision of back-up electrical power, heat,
water or other vital services on a decentralized basis. Note that such
projects may require 5 years or more to carry out, even on an urgent
basis
39
Proposals for key contingency actions
16.
Prepare to house
relocated populations:
Identify empty dwellings that may
be useful for relocated populations
and identify hotels, office buildings,
schools and other public-use
buildings that may be suitable for
rapid conversion to residential uses.
Such measures may be needed if
there is an influx of people from
other areas displaced by climate
change. In regions with moderate
climate, open space may be
designated for temporary housing, if
there is access to adequate support
services.
40
Proposals for key contingency actions
17.
Undertake deep green renovation:
Where substantial performance gains are possible in a large
number of residential and non-residential buildings, establish
major programs for deep green renovation that result in nearlyzero operating emissions, better hot weather performance,
reduced peak electrical loads and water consumption.
Minimum renovation rates of 5% per year of floor space in OECD
regions, and 3% per year in other regions have been suggested by
Climate Action Tracker. Obviously, these global values would need
adjustment for sub-regional or national variations in the suitability of
existing building archetypes for deep green renovations, the availability
of appropriate equipment and of skilled workers.
41
Proposals for key contingency actions
18.
Ensure very high performance of new buildings:
For new construction that is permitted, limit embodied emissions,
require nearly-zero operating GHG emissions, limit peak
electrical loads and water consumption.
These are the core performance areas. A more complete list of key
performance areas would include*







Site Regeneration and Development, Urban Design and Infrastructure
Energy and Resource Consumption
Environmental Loadings
Indoor Environmental Quality
Service Quality
Social, Cultural and Perceptual Aspects
Cost and Economic Aspects
* Taken from master list of SBTool performance criteria, iiSBE 2016
42
Proposals for key contingency actions
19.
Vernacular building:
Where climatic, cultural and technological conditions are
appropriate, encourage vernacular residential building design
and construction techniques, where such approaches result in
reduced GHG emissions.
20.
Limit speculative price increases:
Introduce measures to control speculation in real estate that
results in large numbers of under-utilized or empty dwellings,
and minimize short-term speculative increases in labour rates
and costs of construction materials.
Under emergency conditions, free-market speculation can lead to
material shortages and an inability to carry out urgent repair and
upgrade projects.
Radical changes in
behaviour will be
required, but are possible
43
44
In the face
of shock
conditions,
even U.S.
consumers
accepted
cuts in the
production
of
consumer
goods
www.ameshistoricalsociety.org
Conclusions
45
46
Conclusions

Climate Change is real and its impacts will affect many
sectors in a massive way;

The built environment (buildings and supporting urban
environment) has a major impact on global emissions, so
we must act decisively in reducing its share of impacts;

Climate change is long-term, so we must continue our
efforts at GHG reduction without giving up;

Excessive consumption will not easily be reduced, and
business as usual will lead us into global temperature
increases considerably greater than the target maximum of
2ºC;
47
Conclusions

It is not unreasonable to assume that it will require several
climate-induced disasters of major proportions to shock
governments and their populations into real action, especially
in wealthy areas such as North America, western Europe and
key Asian areas;

When that happens, there will be an immediate demand for
repair and reconstruction efforts, but we must also deal with
the causes;

This will require that we have contingency plans at the ready
to reduce GHGs in a very rapid way and to implement urgent
measures for climate change adaptation;

We must begin such projects now.
Thank you for your attention
Nils Larsson on behalf of iiSBE