Transcript ClimateChangeMathSTE..

STEM:
without Mathematics
it’s just STE!
Or SET –
Or ETS –
Say, how many ways could we do that?
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
•
•
•
•
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,
1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5,
-4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5,
-4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 1,
Mathematicians Seek to
Understand Patterns:
For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5,
-4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, ….
More Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ….
More Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ….
More Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ….
More Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ….
More Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ….
Try Some Patterns in Graphs:
What’s
next?
Patterns in Graphs:
What’s
next?
Patterns in Graphs:
What’s
next?
If we keep it up “forever”, this is:
Graphs of the First Patterns:
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, ….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -4,
-3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1,….
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, ….
Growth Graphs of the
Second Set of Patterns:
•
•
•
•
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, ….
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, ….
2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ….
A Pattern from the “Real World”
In what year will the wiggly curve reaches 450?
(and why do we care?)
Mathematicians
come in two
types:
pure and applied.
I’m an applied
mathematician.
I like to try to
solve real-world
problems….
The Wiggly Curve is Atmospheric CO2 :
Why is the Red Curve Wiggling?
A little more of the history…
(West Antarctica)
www.physicalgeography.net
Now for a lot of the history!
Why Does It Matter?
As indicated in the
preceding video, CO2
and Temperature are
related through the
Greenhouse Effect (first
described by Joseph
Fourier in 1824):
“Decreasing CO2 was the main
cause of a cooling trend that began
50 million years ago, large scale
glaciation occurring when CO2 fell
to 450 ± 100 ppm, a level that will
be exceeded within decades,
barring prompt policy changes.”
James Hansen
We are engaged in a
Grand Experiment!
What happens when we take all this
carbon from the ground and dump it
into the air?
Some Consequences of
Global Climate Change:
1. As temperature rises, we expect more extreme
weather conditions (drought, massive hurricanes, etc.)
2. We expect sea level rise (arctic ice has reached an all-time
historic low this year, but this will not contribute to sea level
rise, because Arctic ice floats; but Greenland and Antarctic ice is
also melting, and that ice moves from land to sea. Furthermore,
water expands as it is heated, and ocean temperatures are
increasing -- so levels rise). If Antarctica and Greenland ice
melts, sea levels will rise by upwards of 70 feet.
3. Species will disappear, as the niches to which animals are
adapted disappear (e.g. Resplendent Quetzals in Costa Rica).
4. Ocean acidification and temperature threats: reefs are
disappearing (half the Great Barrier Reef gone in 30 years);
corals are dying due to bleaching; shells can’t form.
The Most Fundamental Problem
of Humanity
(according to
Upton Sinclair,
1878-1968,
author of The Jungle):
"It is difficult to get a man to understand
something, when his salary depends
upon his not understanding it!"
Conclusions
1. Mathematicians study patterns – whether in the interest of pure or applied
mathematics.
2. Patterns may not be obvious, and clearly we need to presume that we may have
followed “the wrong path”. Applied mathematicians say “All models are wrong;
some models are useful.”
3. We may be successful in identifying patterns in pure mathematics, and discovering
interesting mathematics (primes, Fibonaccis, exponential growth, etc.).
4. Applied mathematicians are usually interested in solving specific problems within a
context. The context here is the study of global climate change. We have data – in
this case, the Keeling CO2 data – and use that to deduce when we’re likely to hit a
prescribed anticipated danger level – 450 ppm of CO2 .
5. Global climate change offers up “opportunities” for many students in STEM
disciplines, for the foreseeable future. Species at risk, climate modeling, ocean
chemistry, forest structure, invasive species, vector-borne diseases, etc. etc. etc.
“A society shot through with scientific illiteracy poses a threat:
repeated failure as a nation to take forward-looking actions
before it’s too late.” Chris Mooney, in Unscientific America
What Makes People Deny?
• Carbon is valuable, and if you’ve got it, you want
to be able to sell it to make money. Your paycheck
is dependent on getting that carbon out of the
ground; so you can’t believe that taking it out of
the ground is bad.
• There is a sense in America that the left-wing
want to keep it in the ground and convert to
green energy, while the right-wing wants to “Drill
baby, drill!” Thus it becomes a political football
(even though climate change is fundamentally
apolitical).
Whack-A-Mole Denialism
•
•
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Warming? What warming?
It was warmer in 1934…
It’s urban islands.
Al Gore has a big mansion.
CO2 is good for plants.
What about sunspots?
What about those East Anglia emails?
What about Earth’s orbit – it’s just natural cycles!
What about [whack-a-mole!]?