Transcript Climate change and the power industry

USGS Florida Activities Related to
Climate Change, Energy Resources,
And New Technologies
Evaluating risks and opportunities
while protecting Florida’s
environment
Robert A. Renken
Associate Director for Hydrologic Studies
U.S. Geological Survey
Fort Lauderdale Office
Overwhelming Scientific Consensus
The National Academy of Sciences (2005)
“The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt
action to reduce the causes of climate change.”
National Security and the Threat of Climate Change--CNA Corp (2007) for Dept of Defense
“The nature and pace of climate change are grave and pose grave implications for U.S. national
security.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
is very likely (90%) … “unequivocally” due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas
concentrations.”
U. S. Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.1 (2009)
“Climate warming will raise sea levels and potentially increase storms, resulting in
increased erosion, wetland loss, salt water intrusion. Actions and plans are needed
at national and state levels for adaptation to future climate conditions.”
Past 10,000 Years
Greenhouse gases
Atmospheric change in the past 100 years:
Global mean temperature increase:
0.74 degrees C over past 100 yrs.
0.65 degrees C over past 5 years
The changing landscape factor
1850
2000
Climate change in the Southeastern US
What can we expect?
•Increased air and water temperatures will create stress for humans, plants
and animals
•Decreased water availability
•Increased coastal storm intensity, storm surge, and long-term sea level rise
•Ecological thresholds will be crossed – major disruptions to ecosystems
US Climate Research Program
SAP 4.1, 2009
Southeastern US Precipitation Trends
Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
Historic Eustatic Sea-Level Rise
Sea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable
environments show a rise of around 20 centimeters per century (2 mm/year).
Source: IPCC 2001
Increasing Range in
Sea-Level Rise
Projections Since 2007
Sea level change (inches)
20
15
10
> 6 meters
(21 feet)
2007 IPCC Sea
Level Rise
Median
Projection
5
0
-5
-10
Modified from IPCC 2007 report
Greater potential impact
Effects of increased sea-level rise and storm
intensity
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Loss of coastal habitats and resources
Increased coastal erosion
Loss of recreation resources (beaches, marshes)
Saltwater intrusion into aquifers, water wells, septic
systems
Elevated storm-surge flooding levels
Greater, more frequent coastal inundation
Increased risk to people and infrastructure
North Captiva Island
Sept 2001
August 2004
(Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999, 2000)
SEA LEVEL RISE:
POTENTIAL FOR INNUNDATION AND EROSION
Retreat from low-lying coastlines
“Protect, Accommodate, Retreat”
(IPCC response strategies for accelerated sea level rise)
In some coastal areas retreat may be
the most cost effective option.
•Florida’s energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to sea level
rise and storm impacts….
•The interdependencies of fuel, transportation and electrical generation
and distribution were found to be major issues in Florida’s recovery
from recent major hurricanes.
Bull et al., 2007,
\
US. Climate Science
Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5
Stationarity is dead – the future will not
look like the past
Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060
(Paul Milly et al., 2005)
Total water withdrawals in Florida by major
category, 2005
12 BGD water used for
power generation
Florida
Power
Industry
Total water withdrawn and consumed in Florida
by category, 2005 (billion gallons per day)
Total water withdrawn and gross power
generated in Florida, 1970-2005
Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion
Hydrologic models to assess climate change
Data Collection
Conceptualization,
simulation &
sensitivity
Prediction &
uncertainty
Saltwater Intrusion Sensitivity Analysis
Zygnerski and Langevin, 2008
•Historic SLR affected saltwater intrusion
•Withdrawals had a greater impact
•Sum of multiple forcings greater than
individual forcings
1850
1994
.
GCM SPATIAL DOWNSALING
Hindcasting and Forecasting Climate Impacts on
Coastal Habitats and Species in the Everglades
Integrated Modeling Approach:
• Enhance existing hydrology model
to hindcast SLR and historic
vegetation change
• Add hurricane disturbance
• Assess habitat suitability
• Add NARCCAP AOCGM
climate predictions
• Add Land use/land change
• Three scenarios (1900, 2010, 2050,
greenhouse gas, temp & precip
impacts)
• Develop predictive capability for
SLR under restoration and
management scenarios
SALTWATER INTRUSION -- 2 FT SEA LEVEL RISE
Time inundated (%)
Innundation and increased surface water salinity
Existing sea level
2 FT SLR
100
75
50
25
0
Simulated two foot increase in sea level
Carbon sequestration:
Deliberate effort to decrease the net flux of CO2 to the
atmosphere by sequestering it from the atmosphere to
the land and oceans
•Geologic Sequestration
•Terrestrial /biologic sequestration
Geologic sequestration
Geologic sequestration
http://energy.er.usgs.gov/health_environment/co2_sequestration/
Saline Water Aquifer Mapping Project in the Southeastern United States
Groundwater Resources Program
• Digital database of borehole geophysical log
data
• Map the regional extent of saline aquifer
systems
• Delineate salinity variations at key well sites
and along section lines and depict fresh and
saltwater interfaces
Biological carbon sequestration
Evapotranspiration & Carbon Network
ALABAMA
GEORGIA
ET & CO2
ET
Urban station
(with UCF Biology
Department)
USGS/UCF Urban Carbon Project
• Characterize carbon and water flux in an urban landscape
• Relate the carbon/water flux to landcover
• Develop models for optimizing carbon uptake and water
conservation
West
Traffic
CO2 concentration (ppm)
390
2000
1500
385
380
1000
375
500
370
365
0
0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time of day (h)
Traffic volume (vehicle/hr.)
395
Example Data for Average atmospheric CO2
concentrations
(Oct. 4 - Nov. 6, 2008)
East
Carbon sequestration through restoration
of former wetlands (IPCC, 2007)
Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
QUESTIONS ?
Sundquist et al., 2008
Global Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sequestration