Transcript SAWS Climate change and Response initiatives

The essence of data in climate change response.
Parliamentary Colloquium: Unpacking The COP21 Paris Agreement
Implications for the Nation
OLD ASSEMBLY CHAMBER: PARLIAMENT
28 October 2016
Mr. Mnikeli Ndabambi
South African Weather Service
www.weathersa.co.za
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Content
Introduction
Purpose
Mandate
Key Infrastructure
Climate change challenges SAWS strategic context
SAWS Climate change and Response initiatives
Forecasting Services
Products and Services
Research and Development
Development Capacity and Capability
Enabling Climate Change response
Conclusion
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PURPOSE
To brief the members on:-
Data availability.
Data usage and value add.
Share products derived from weather and climatological
data
in response to Climate Variability and Change
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SAWS MANDATE
Established as an AGENCY on 15 June 2001
Two distinct Services:
Public Good
Commercial
Funded by
Government
Grant
User-pays
principle
applies
Forecasts &
Warnings
Tailor made
products &
services
CREATING A WEATHER-SMART NATION
VISION
“A weather-SMART nation.”
SAWS wants to achieve an end-state where citizens,
communities and business sectors are weather resilient
because they are able to use the information, products and
services provided by SAWS optimally.
S – Safe
M – More informed
A – Alert
R – Resilient/Ready
T – Timeous
SAWS PRODUCTS & SERVICES
Training
Centre
Forecasting
Research &
Develop
Satellite
Centre of
Excellence
Aviation
services
Observation Observation
network
research
Marine
services
Now &
short-term
forecasting
Climate
Services
National
climate
data bank
Technical
Services
Air Quality
Met
Authority
SA Air
Quality Info
System
ICAO
Manufacturing
compliance
&
(Oversight) assembling
Climate
Change
General
forecasting
Global
Long-term
Climate
Atmospheric
forecasting
information
Watch
& outlooks
SADC
specialized
Met centre
Climate
services
(NFCS)
New
product
development
OBSERVATIONS
1277
Rainfall stations
214
Automatic weather
stations
141
Automatic rainfall
stations
25
Climate stations
24
Lightning sensors
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Radars
10
Upper air stations
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Weather Offices
SAWS STRATEGIC CONTEXT
South African Weather Services Value Chain – Enabling climate change response
Networks
Data Collection
Strategy
Science
Processing & Data
Management
Content Value Add
Devices
Dissemination
•
Develop Products and services enabling Government, sectors, industries, communities……
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Develop and facilitate Implementation of National Framework for Climate Services in partnership with various stakeholders
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Socio-economic benefits study
Capacity Development
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Infrastructure upgrade, expansion and optimisation
Improved service delivery to the agricultural sector – adoption of new products and applications
Skills Development
•
National Education Plan
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DATA AVAILABLITY AND VALUE ADD
• SAWS has 154 years historical data (National Climate Data
Bank)*
• Climatic means (averages) including:
– daily,
– monthly and
– annuals have been established and can be made available if a user needs
to compare current values with the long term means
• Using the long series of rainfall data, mean dperiods of
– onset and
– cessation of the rain seasons have been established and the dates of
earliest onset and cessations established. i.e. with appropriate standard
deviations
e.g expect late rainfall onsets with short duration,
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VALUE ADD-CONTINUES
• SAWS is able to give the farmer (user), the risks associated with dry/wet spells of
given lengths if he plants early, at time of onset and late onset
• This information is of use to plan whether to intercrop.
• Whereas most of SAWS’ forecasts indicate terminologies such as
– “above Normal,
– Below Normal and
– Normal” with assistance of the Agrometeorological services, the same may be quantified for
use in yield estimation and water management.
• SAWS has application which use meteorological and climatological data to
monitor crop development.
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BENEFITS: AGRICULTURAL EXAMPLE
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Weather Forecasts and Warnings
• Synops
• Regional (SADC) • Medium range
(ECMWF)
• Local (SA)
• Ensembles (NCEP)
• Mesoscale
• MOS
• Ensembles
• LDN
• MOS
• Radar
• SAFFG
• Ensembles
• MOS
• Multi-model
Ensembles
Coupled: GCM+ Ocean
• Ocean Models GCM Ensembles
• MOS
> 2 Years
• Upper Air
30 Days– 2 Years
11- 30
Days
Tools
• Satellite
Global Climate Model
Forecast
Numerical Weather Prediction
Observations
4 -10
Days
24 -72
Hours
0–6
Hours
Watches & Warnings:
• Severe weather
Advisories:
• Potential
hazardous
weather
events
• Rain and
temperature
anomalies
• Rainfall &
temperature
anomalies
• Agrometeorology
advisory
service
• Rainfall and
temperature anomalies
• Rainfall and
Temperature
Tendencies
Products
6-24
Hours
Outlook:
Outlook:
• Climate Change
• Agro-meteorology
advisory service
• Build necessary skills in the agro sector that enables better decisions – offering training to farmers and ensuring protection
of assets
• Maximising the utilisation of existing weather and climate service infrastructure
• Improving coordination, and strengthening and building infrastructure where needed – strategically positioning observation network
Benefits
• Daily weather elements
• Reducing the vulnerability of society, crops and livestock to climate-related hazards - air pollution, heat, floods, drought, lightning
detection and diseases
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Weather monitoring: 2015/16
El Niño droughts are associated with an eastward shift of
tropical rain bearing clouds from the tropics. At the same
time, higher pressures develop over South Africa, with
descending warm and dry air at the surface.
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
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DROUGHT MONITORING INDICTORS (DMI)
Rainfall Projections
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National Temperature Scenarios
•In the business-as-usual case (i.e. no mitigation), warming continues throughout the
21st century
•the inland areas are projected to warm by more than 4°C above the 1986-2005
reference period by 2071-2100 (centered on 2085, right panel)
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: Web Portal
Customised weather-related web portals with security access, provides data and applications via the Internet to support
weather sensitive industries to reduce water related challenges – www.hydronet.co.za accessed through the SAWS
website
 Three applications:
Weather Stations
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At a click of a button - direct access to actual (real-time) and historical rainfall information
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SAWS observation network data for planning & reporting purposes
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Amount of rainfall at a specific location per hour / per day / per time series
RainMap
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To optimize the proactive scheduling of weather sensitive activities to manage water resources
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Reduce the need for additional rain gauges
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Easily accessible information as quality checks improve the data
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Personalised dashboards linked to own strategic indicators
Weather Forecast
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Weather forecasts for specific locations over different time periods
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Improves risk related planning
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Reduces exposure to possible impacts of forecasted factors
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POWER OF DATA MANIPULATION-e.g
Provincial Scenarios
Key Message (Eastern Cape Province)
Variable
Temperature
Message
Temperature
Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases
progressively in the 21st century from about 0.9°C [0.6 – 1.5]
between 2016-2045 to 2.2°C [1.7 – 3.2] during 2046-2075 and
3.3°C [2.6 – 4.9] towards the end of the century
Precipitation
Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 15% [4
– 26%] towards the end of the century (2071 – 2100) under
the business-as-usual scenario
Precipitation
Models are uncertain in terms of precipitation, with some
models projecting an increase in precipitation and some
projecting a decrease
Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century
warming is about 0.7°C [0.4 – 1.7] in all seasons
Key Message (Free State Province)
Variable
Temperature
Message
Temperature
Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases
progressively in the 21st century from about 1.2°C [0.7 – 1.9]
between 2016-2045 to 2.7°C [1.9 – 4.1] during 2046-2075 and
4.2°C [3.2 – 6.2] towards the end of the century
Precipitation
Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 20% [8 –
28%] towards the end of the century (2071–2100) under the
business-as-usual scenario
Precipitation
The range is very wide during other seasons, with some models
projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a
decrease
Under aggressive mitigation, the
average 21st century
temperature stabilize around 1.5°C [0.5 – 2.3] in all seasons
CONCLUSION
• Continue to enable Government, sectors, industries, etc
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Provision of sector-specific products and services
Provision of advisory services to industry and key decision makers
Continued monitoring of drought, water resources and climate change impacts
Collaboration with Key sector players
Capacity building
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Train users on Interpretation, usage and pro-active response to weather and climate
information
Infrastructure operation and maintenance
Availability of human capital skilled in specialised fields e.g. meteorology, climatology, agrometeorology, Hydro-meteorology
• Infrastructure network expansion and optimisation
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Improved prediction and accuracy
Strategic positioning of infrastructure – geo-specific information
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Thank You!
Questions?
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