Transcript Virginia`s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: A Lesson in

Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment:
A lesson in Quiet Progress
Chris Burkett
VA Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries
June 5, 2013
Why are we here?
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Talk about the BIG
PICTURE
Overview of our CC Plan
Brief background of our
project
Display some results
Discuss emerging
management concerns
Identify next steps
Fundamental Truth…
Virginia is a politically
conservative coal
producing state and
we have been for
centuries
How I Feel Most Days:
Working on Climate
Change involves Political
Peril
And
Stakeholders that want
you to “Take a Stand”.
Climate Change Will Affect Management
We work for organizations
and agencies that were
created to conserve and
manage the nation’s
resources.
Climate change will have an
impact on how we do our jobs.
Like other threats, we need to
incorporate climate information
into our planning processes.
2009 Climate Change Strategy
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Climate Adaptation Strategy
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DGIF, NWF, VCN
Multi-stakeholder effort
Completed Oct. 2009
Designed to be place to start
One of the Most Important Needs:
Develop a better understanding of how
climate change might impact Virginia’s
wildlife and habitats.
Side Boards
Our plan does not:
 Lay Blame
 Take Sides
 Make impossible recommendations
 Go on, and on, and on…
 Applicable to more than just
climate change
Virginia’s Effort
Partner With NWF and CMI for a 2-Step Project
Determine:
• the changes projected for
Virginia’s climate
and
• what those changes might
mean for Virginia’s wildlife
and habitats
Phase 1 – Climate Modeling
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Virginia- Specific Climate Model
 10km X 10km
 Reports at 2060 and 2095
 2 GHG scenarios (B1 and
A1FI)
 Consider suite of climate
variables beyond avg. temp
and avg. precipitation.
We wanted to understand the extreme
events that drive the changing averages.
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Variable Name
Topsoil Moisture
Cold snap days
Soil Moisture
Days in March with > 1" snow
Root soil moisture
Mean spring growing degree days
Days with >= 6 " of
Mean minimum number of growing
snow
degree days in the spring
Days with > 0.5" of
Mean maximum number of growing
rain
degree days in the spring
Days with > 1" of snow Mean number of heatwave days
Days with > 1" runoff Minimum number of heatwave days
Days with > 8" runoff Maximum number of heatwave days
Heating degree days Mean soil moisture in July
Cooling degree days Mean minimum soil moisture in July
Foliage Damage Days Mean maximum soil moisture in July
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Top Soil Moisture (Dynamic Downscale)
Threats Assessment
– Part 2
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20 Species
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Plants or Animals
Must be associated with the
Action Plan (SGCN, habitat
component, or threat)
Predictions based on current
distributions and climatic
tolerances
Species Name
Bald Cypress
Black Oak
Bobwhite
Brook Trout
Cope's Gray Tree Frog
Eastern Hemlock
Flowering Dogwood
Gypsy Moth
Scientific Name
Taxodium distichum
Quercus velutina
Colinus virginianus
Salvelinus fontinalis
Hyla chrysoscelis
Tsuga canadensis
Cornus florida
Lymantria dispar
James River Spiny Mussel
Northern Red Oak
Oak Toad
Red Spruce
Roanoke Logperch
Shortleaf Pine
Southern Red Oak
Timber Rattlesnake
White Oak
White Pine
Wood Frog
Yellow Birch
Pleurobema collina
Quercus rubra
Anaxyrus quercicus
Picea rubens
Percina rex
Pinus echinata
Quercus falcata
Crotalus horridus
Quercus alba
Pinus strobus
Lithobates sylvaticus
Betula alleghaniensis
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Model Process
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Presence data
Build CART model using current climate data
Plug in future climate data into model for probability of
occurrence
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Low (.01 - .40)
Medium (.41 - .70)
High (> .70)
Quantify results/patterns
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Climate Impacts and Implications for
Wildlife and Habitat
Climate Projections from Modeling
SRES A1Fi
Climate Variable
Increase
Mid 21st
Decrease
Increase
Late 21st
Decrease
Day .5” rain
74.1%
25.9%
66.9%
32.3%
Day 1” snow
0.0%
86.5%
3.0%
83.5%
Day 1” runoff
14.3%
58.3%
24.0%
50.0%
Cold Snap Days
MeanGrowing DegreeDays
(GDD)
0.0%
99.6%
0.0%
99.6%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
MeanHeatWaveDay (HWD)
98.7%
1.3%
100.0%
0.0%
Changing Forest Composition
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Potential for changing
forest composition.
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Climate could be more
favorable for some
species (So. Red Oak and
Bald Cypress)
Less favorable for others
(Black Oak, White Oak,
No. Red Oak)
Concerns about rate of
transition.
Potential secondary
impacts - habitat
Northern Red Oak
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Flowering Dogwood
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Bald Cypress
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Possible Extirpations
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Possible extirpations
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Brook Trout
Loss of cold water habitats
Brook Trout
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Invasive Species
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Invasive Species –
gypsy moth
Likely to do well
under predicted
conditions
Could impact others
species
 Oaks, adapting
 Black bears
responding to
oaks
Gypsy Moth
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Selection of Additional Species
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Timber Rattlesnake
Oak Toad
Bobwhite Quail
Timber Rattlesnake
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What have we learned?
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Things are going to change
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Not as simple as move upslope/upstream
Distributions will change, so will probability of occurrence
New combinations of species
Complex interactions
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Gypsy moth and oak species
Changing plant community composition
Competition from new species interactions
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Native species
Invasives
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Management Implications
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DGIF
 Virginia Wildlife
Action Plan
 Wildlife
Management Areas
 Species specific
management plans
Other sectors:
•CZM program
•Department of Forestry
•NEPA process
•Local planning offices
Climate is not the sole determining factor.
Next Steps…
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What to do with the
data
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Summarize
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Availability
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Research
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Conserved lands
Focus on Habitats
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Collaborations
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Questions? Ideas?
Chris Burkett
Wildlife Action Plan Coordinator
Virginia Department of Game and
Inland Fisheries
[email protected]
Austin Kane
Science and Policy Manager
National Wildlife Federation
[email protected]
Scott Klopfer
Director
Conservation Management Institute
[email protected]
Virginia’s Climate Strategy for Wildlife is Available at:
http://www.bewildvirginia.org/climate-change/
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