Transcript Building capacity and resilience for the most vulnerable

33rd Model OAS General Assembly for Universities
Building capacity and resilience for the most vulnerable
communities to prevent and mitigate disasters in a
changing climate
Pablo Gonzalez
Basseterre, St. Kitts
24-26 March 2015
Principal Specialis t and Chief
Risk Management and Adapt ation to Climate Change
Program (RISK-MACC)
Department of Sus tainable Development
Executive Secretariat for Integral Development
Organization of American States
www.oas.org
1889 F Str eet N.W. suite 711
Washington, D.C. 20006
P. 202-370-4971
F. 202-458-3560
[email protected]
Some Initial Considerations
• Hazards
• Exposure, Vulnerability and Capacity
• Adaptation and Resilience
• CC Mitigation vs. CC Adaptation
• The UNFCCC and the IPCC
• Deconstructing Disaster Risk
• Addressing the root causes of disasters buried in the pre-conditions of
vulnerability
Some Basic Concepts
Outlook: General Considerations
• Increasing exposure along with economic and population growth, along with
inequities, and rapid urbanization
• Democratic institutions and governance for DRM
• Institutional and Legal Reforms
• Intra-regional Cooperation: Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral
Trends: The 90s and the (20)00s
More Disasters (+30%)


1991-2000: around 700
2001-2010: around 900
One single event, hurricane
Katrina, is responsible for
125 billion US Dollars in
economic losses or 28% of
total losses for 2001-2010.
More than Double in economic losses

1991-2000: > 200 billion US Dollars

2001-2010: > 440 billion US Dollars
More than Double in affected people

1991-2000: around 38 million

2001-2010: around 81 million
245.84
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
63.02
23.27
50.00
0.00
1991-2000
2001-2010
(sin Haiti)
2001-2010
(con Haiti)
One single event, the
February 12th 2010
earthquake in Haiti, was
responsible for almost
85% of all deaths during
2001-2010.
Source: Emergency Events Database EM-DAT of the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED, Université of Catholique de Louvain in
Belgium and World Health Organization Collaborative Centre.
Trends: The 90s and the (20)00s (cont…)
People Affected: Comparison of the last two decades
90,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
Economic losses are directly related to the value of the assets.
70,000,000.00
The higher the value of the asset, the larger the economic losses.
60,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
2001-2010
1991-2000
40,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
Huracane Katrina (125B)
2008 US Floods
(10B)
20,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
Economic Losses (in thousands of US Dollars)
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
500,000,000.00
Years
2008 US Floods (11M)
450,000,000.00
Haiti (4M); Chile (3M); COL (2M) & MEX (1M)
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
1998 Brazil Droughts (10M)
Mitch (3M) & Georges (1M)
The number of deaths is directly related to the level of
development, and the population density.
The lower degree of development and the higher the
population density, the larger the number of people killed.
250,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
Years
7
8
9
10
Trends: The decade of 2001-2010
People Affected by Hazard during 2001-2010
Volcanic
Eruptions
1%
Fires
1%
Droughts
8%
Earthquakes
11%
Storms
33%
Economic Losses in Billions of US Dollars
By Hazards during 2001-2010
Droughts
6.86
Extreme
Temperatures
6%
Floods
39%
Storms and floods are responsible for 72% of the total
number of people affected during 2001-2010.
And almost 86% of the economic losses. Although 30%
can be attributed to one single event, hurricane Katrina.
Fires
9.47
Volcanic Eruptions
0.16
Earthquakes
43.64
Extreme Temperatures
1.10
Floods
27.15
Storms
354.52
Climate Change: Seeking the Equilibrium
Definitions
Climate Change according to the IPCC refers to any change observed over time, regardless of whether it is attributed to a natural variability or
to human activity. UNFCCC refers to changes that can be attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, which alters the global
composition of the atmosphere, in addition to the observed natural climate variability. The former definition is the one we will use in this
paper.
Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report, Summery for Policy Makers
CC: Understanding the Threat
Threat
Sea level rise will augment flood risk in low-lying areas and coastal zone erosion
Heavy precipitation events, , which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent
Increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes with longer hurricane seasons
Other threats include: heat waves in mega cities, losses in tropical forest and biodiversity, increase of arid zones, bleaching of coral reefs, and depletion of water supplies
stored in glaciers and snow cover.
Time Scale: Change vs. Impact
“The impacts frequently reflect projected changes in precipitation and other climate variables in addition to temperature, sea level and
concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide…
The magnitude and timing of impacts will vary with the amount and timing of climate change and, in some cases, the capacity to adapt.…”
Uncertainties in the Impacts: Data and Models
[more than 29,000 observational data series, selected from 80,000 in 577 studies world wide –variations in quality and lack of geographic balance]
Observation Data Series, Methodologies and Measurements (NDVI, TDM, etc.)
Cyclical Phenomena and Complexity of Geodynamic: ENSO, AMO & PDO, and Terrestrial tides, etc.
Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Summery for
Policy Makers
Oscillations: AMO and PDO
The yellow shading indicates the warm phase of the AMO,
and the white shading indicates the cool phase of the PDO –
associated with greater frequency of La Niña phase of the El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The green shading shows
their overlap.
1946-1964
# Tropical Cyclones
Total North Atlantic tropical cyclones, in blue; and its
correlation with changes in sea surface temperature (SST), in
red, since 1920
28.5
14
12
28
10
8
27.5
6
4
27
2
0
26.5
1920
1945
1970
1995
2020
Year
1995-2006
2020-2025
%
Low
14.42
High
19.42
Total N. Atlantic TCs
9.74
14.42
Total CA/Carib. Landfalls
3.84
4.58
36.00
5.19
6.69
Mexico Landfalls
CA/Yucatan Landfalls
G. Antilles Landfalls
L. Antilles Landfalls
Bahamas Landfalls
0.74
0.68
1.58
1.00
0.74
0.92
1.17
1.08
1.25
0.83
20.00
22.00
33.00
26.00
19.00
1.04
1.14
1.71
1.35
0.99
1.34
1.47
2.21
1.74
1.27
Fuente: Georgia Institute of Technology (J. Curry et al, 2007)
Sea Surface Temp. °C
16
Time Series:
Paleoclimate
Sudden Changes in Air Temperature:
From two-mile thick Greenland ice sheet
Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
Earliest known developments taking place in the Middle East
around 10,000 BC or earlier
Sea Level Rise: Ocean & Terrestrial Tides
Tidal Phase and Amplitude
Source: OUR RESTLESS TIDES National Ocean Service NOAA
http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/restles4.html figure: http://coops.nos.noaa.gov/images/restfig6.gif {{PD-USGov-DOCNOAA}}
The M2 tidal constituent. Amplitude is indicated by colour, and the white lines are cotidal differing
by 1 hr. The curved arcs around the amphidromic points show the direction of the tides, each
indicating a synchronized 6 hour period.
CC Mitigation vs. Adaptation
Third IPCC
Evaluation
Report
Protocol of
Montreal on
depletion of the
Ozone O3 layer
Second IPCC
Evaluation
Report
WMO & UNEP
create IPCC
First IPCC
Evaluation
Report
Fourth IPCC
Evaluation
Report
COP3
COP13
COP14
COP15
COP16
COP17
KYOTO
Kyoto
Protocol
BALI
IV Report
Adaptation
RM & RR
POZNAN
Adaptation
Fund
COPENHAGEN
CV & CC
CANCUN
Green C Fund
DURBAN
Green C Fund
RIO
Earth
Summit
1987 1988 1990
1992 1995 1997 2001
Fifth IPCC
Evaluation
Report
RIO+20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
The Inter-American System
The Inter-American System (cont…)
Inter-American Convention to Facilitate Disaster Assistance
Ratified by six OAS Member States:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Panama, 1995
Peru, 1996
Uruguay, 1999
Dominican Republic, 2009
Nicaragua, 2010
Colombia, 2013
Some relevant provisions:
•
•
•
•
It defines ‘requests for and offers and acceptance of assistance’;
It recognizes the National Coordinating Authority;
It defines the direction and control of assistance; and
It addresses issues of access and transit routes [with considerations for transit states],
assistance personnel –Immigration and Protection, and restricted areas and risk.
The Inter-American System (cont…)
Inter-American Plan for Disaster Prevention and Response and
the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance
Inter-American Committee on Natural
Disaster Reduction (IACNDR)
•Inter-agency coordinating mechanism
•Strategic Thinking
•Sub-committees:
• PAHO: Relief and Response
• GS/OAS: Disaster Mitigation and Prevention
• IDB: DRM Finance
•Membership: Inter-American System, Subregional IGO,
and UN System
Global and Subregional Processes
2005
2007
2008
2014
2015
2016
Third Inter-American
Meeting of Ministers and
High Level Authorities on
Sustainable Development
MIAH I
MIAH VII
Mexico
Guatemala
Brazil … Argentina … Ecuador … Panama … Jamaica
2014 – 2015 Calendar
Opportunities & Challenges
•Wealth of knowledge and experience
•Integration Processes and Mechanisms: common development objectives
•Increasing cooperation capacity: more facilities for knowledge exchange
•Specialized IGO Agencies: more facilities for practical coordination and
cooperation
•Increasing exposure and increasing vulnerability
•Integration Processes and Mechanisms: economic dependencies, increase of
transboundery impacts
•Increasing cooperation capacity: more complex emergencies and
cooperation challenge
•Specialized IGO Agencies: overlapping processes and inter-agency
cooperation challenge
33rd Model OAS General Assembly for Universities
Building capacity and resilience for the most vulnerable
communities to prevent and mitigate disasters in a
changing climate
Pablo Gonzalez
Basseterre, St. Kitts
24-26 March 2015
Principal Specialis t and Chief
Risk Management and Adapt ation to Climate Change
Program (RISK-MACC)
Department of Sus tainable Development
Executive Secretariat for Integral Development
Organization of American States
www.oas.org
1889 F Str eet N.W. suite 711
Washington, D.C. 20006
P. 202-370-4971
F. 202-458-3560
[email protected]