Transcript - IONS - Bangladesh Navy

Challenges of Natural and Manmade
disasters: Need for enhanced
Maritime Cooperation and response
Dr. Ainun Nishat
Professor Emeritus
Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research
BRAC University
Introduction
This presentation has five parts:
Part I : Introductory comment
Part II : Natural Disasters
Part III : Man-made Disasters
Part IV : Climate Change and Disaster management
Part V : Standing Orders on Disaster, Bangladesh
Part VI : Concluding remarks
Part I : Introductory comment
Part I : Introductory comment
• Let us first define the geographical territory for
which Naval Forces may have disaster
management responsibilities:
• Indian Ocean and High Seas, and Island States
• Coastal belt and coastal Islands
• Interior Territory -- small naval vessels may assess.
• My experience in Kutubdia, 1991 cyclone.
Part I : Introductory comment
Some definitions:
Disaster : “A serious disruption to a community caused
by the impact of an event that requires a significant
coordinated response by the Government and other
entities to help the community to recover from the
disruption. Disaster are usually associated with severe damage to
infrastructure and utilities, death, injuries and homelessness and can be
wide spread or contained within a particular sector or sub-sector”.
Disaster management: “Arrangement for managing the
potential adverse risks and includes defining the risk
environment, managing the risk environment and
responding to the threat environment.”
Preparedness: “Measures that are designed to ensure that
communities will have knowledge and understanding of
their risk environment to enable them to better cope with
potential hazards impacts.”
Recovery: “Measures that are designed to develop the
systems required to support affected communities in the
reconstruction of their physical infrastructure and
restoration of their emotional, economic and physical well
being”.
Relief : “Includes money, food, medicine, shelter, cloths and
any other public or private assistance provided to people
and communities to overcome affects of disaster event.”
Part II :
Natural Disasters
Natural Disasters
• Floods
– River Flood
– Flash flood
– Coastal Flood
– Drainage congestion
• Drought
• River and coastal zone erosion
• Land Slides
Natural Disasters
• Storm surges and Cyclones
• Tornados
• Earthquakes
– Tsunami
• Volcanic Eruption
– Tsunami
Natural Disasters
• Possible areas of cooperation and
collaborative programs
– Advanced warning and forecasts
– Search and rescue
– Distribution of Relief materials
– Supply of safe drinking water
– Medical assistance
On Natural Disasters….
• Among the various natural disasters where
maritime cooperation can be really effective are
cyclones and storm surges, and Tsunamis.
• The entire Pacific zone is vulnerable to such
natural disasters.
• In Bangladesh, we recall the excellent support
given to the local affected communities through
Operation Manna and Operation Sea Angel that
were carried out after the cyclone of 1991.
• Intensity and frequency of storm surges are likely
to increase due to global warming.
Part III :
Man-made Disasters
Man-made Disasters
• Accidents in ferry operation
• Sinking of ships in high seas
– Collision between two vessels
– Engine failure/ hole in the hull
• Spillage of oils due to collision/leakage
• Spillage of toxic materials due to
leakage/accidents
• Disposal of bilge water
On Man-made Disasters
• Among man-made events, one of the major disasters
that could have serious adverse impacts specially on
coastal eco-system is oil spillage due to sinking of a oilcarrying Tanker in high sea or in the coastal belt.
• Illegal disposal of bilge water by ocean-going vessels in
the sea is also a matter of serious worry.
• Sinking of ferries in storms, (a natural disaster) or
through collision ( a man-made disaster) may need
support of naval operation including support from
regional agencies.
Part IV :
Climate Change and
Disaster management
Is Climate Change real ?
• Climate change and climate variability are now real.
• A stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.
• The IPCC- 4th Assessment Report (2007) concluded, and reconfirmed by 5th Report in 2013, that global warming is
unequivocally the result of human activities.
• Scientific consensus is clear; now the whole world collectively
needs to urgently focus on what to do about it.
• CC has risen to the top of international political agenda as well
as national development planning and management
• Paris Agreement (December 2015) has set global goals to limit
rise of temperature to well below 2oC and preferably to 1.5o C by
2100.
Concerns at Global Level
Major Global concerns
 Threat of Food shortage
 Threat of migration; Livelihood security
 Increase in intensity and frequency of natural
disasters




Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem
Health security threatened
Process of sustainable development affected
Coping capacity of LDCs, SIDS and countries in
Africa is not adequate
Some Definitions……
Climate Change: any change in climate over time.
Climate variability: variations in the mean state and
other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes,
etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial
scales.
Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing
environment..
Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
The Past IS NOT the Future
Current Trend
Un-quantified
Risk
The Past is the Future
Probable adverse impacts
Hydro-meteorological events
• Increase in annual rainfall
• Increase in droughts
• Occurrence of short duration
heavy rainfall
• Rainfall at unexpected time
• Rise in temperature
• Increase in cyclones and storm
surge events
Other Impacts
• Sea level rise
– Increase in salinity in
coastal belt
– Inundation of coastal
plains
• Snow melting and GLOFs
• Increase in river and
coastal erosion
• Increase in vector borne
disease
What is likely to happen
Frequency of extreme climatic events will increase e.g. same
location will face floods and drought in shorter frequency;
Intensity of extreme climatic events will increase; e.g. short duration
heavy rainfall specially in urban areas
Occurrence of erratic and unusual behaviour of weather will be
frequent e.g. rain will occur at unexpected time and will not occur
at expected time;
Snow and Ice will melt; in the long run the volume of snow melt
water will be very low; threat of GLOF will increase;
Sea Level will rise; to what level is being debated.
Frequency of severe flood on increase

About 50 m
people exposed
to severe and
moderate
floods

Floods during
1987, 1988,
1995, 2002,
2004 and 2007
Severe Droughts in some places
while other places are Flooded
Drought
24
•
The term 'drought-prone' is often
used loosely or ambiguously
•
Only the agricultural drought has
been considered
•
Kharif-I, Kharif-II and Boro
drought have been considered
and superimposed
•
The north-west region of
Bangladesh is highly affected
Urban drainage congestion is on increase due to heavy rainfall.
River Erosion rate increasing
Storm Surge
27
•
Storm surge inundation map
is prepared for a SIDR like
cyclonic event
•
South-central region is
mostly exposed
SIDR’s
route
Entire coastal
belt is vulnerable
to Storm Surges
and Cyclones.
Destruction by Cyclone Sidr
Gabura Union, Shyamnagar, Sathakhira: No dry place ….
People migrate from Kalabogi Village, Sutarkahli, Dacope.
Flood
Flood
Inundation
Inundation
Depth
Depth
Map:
Map:
Projection
Projection
Year
2030
Year
Flood
Inundation
Depth
Map:
Projection
Year
2050
Flood
Inundation
Depth
Map:
Projection
Year
21002015
Flood Inundation
Depth
Map
Existing
Sea
Level
Sea
Level
Rise
Rise
cm
10 cmCondition
Sea
Level
Rise
3214
cm
Sea
Level
Rise
88
cm
No Sea Level
Upstream
flow:
Upstream
flow:
Upstream
flow:
Rise
Average
Year
Average
Year
Average
Year
Upstream
flow:
(Year
2000
flow)
(Year
2000
flow)
(Year
2000
flow)
Average
Year
(Year 2000 flow)
Land
Level
PWD)
Land
Level
(m(m
PWD)
(m)PWD)
PWD)
Land Level (m
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
0.002.00
0.002.00
0.002.00
0.00- 2.00
Inundation Depth
(m)
Inundation
InundationDepth
Depth(m)
(m)
0.000.15
0.000.15
0.000.15
0.00- 0.15
0.150.30
0.150.30
0.150.30
0.15- 0.30
0.300.30- 0.60
0.60
0.300.30-0.60
0.60
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.901.80
0.901.80
0.901.80
0.90- 1.80
1.803.60
1.803.60
1.803.60
1.803.60
Above
3.60
Above
3.60
Above
3.60
Above 3.60
Parameters: drought,
flood and cyclone
“ Kadam” in bloom in front of BRAC University;
Photograph taken on 15th December 2012
On Climate Change
• Adverse impacts of climate change resulting
from both ‘slow on-set events’ and ‘rapid onset events’ be given due attention;
• There will be increase in intensity and
magnitude of various natural disasters;
• As well as there will be uncertainties in their
occurrence.
• All countries are required to develop their
NAMA and NAP ( NAPA for LDCs).
On Climate Change…..
• Sea Level Rise (SLR) and associated increase in
salinity is likely to impact low lying Island Sates as
well as low lying deltaic areas.
• Parts of a country ( may be fully) may be inundated;
• It is apprehended that huge population will be
displaced. They may have to migrate that will
require international level assistance to rehabilitate
them. This is being debated under “Loss and
Damage” to be finalized in December 2016.
Part V :
Standing Orders On
Disaster, Bangladesh
STANDING ORDERS ON DISASTER, BANGLADESH
• Standing Orders on Disaster, Bangladesh was
first introduced in 1997. It has been updated in
2010.
• The SOD outlines the role and responsibilities
of the ministries, divisions, agencies,
organizations, committees, public
representatives and citizens to cope with any
natural disaster
SOD for Navy
• There are separate sections in the SOD for
Bangladesh Army, Bangladesh Navy and
Bangladesh Air force
• The section on Bangladesh Navy is organized
under the following headings
– Risk reduction
– Emergency response
•
•
•
•
Normal times
Alert and warning stage
Disaster stage
Early recovery and Rehabilitation stages
Part V :
Concluding remarks
Concluding remarks…..
• Main objective of this presentation is to flag up
various opportunities and options for providing
support to states and people living in various
islands as well as in low lying coastal regions, in
the Indian Ocean and in its rim as they are
affected by manmade and natural disasters,
during and after such events.
• Navy has a major role to play if impacts of a
disaster fall within the the geographical territory
as suggested earlier.
• In Bangladesh, their ‘roles’ have been defined.
Concluding remarks…..
• In peace time, maritime cooperation, in the
form of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster
Relief (HADR) should be in the forefront to
provide assistance in the form of
collaborations among nation states of Indian
Ocean Region (IOR).
Concluding remarks…
• A few examples where joint efforts could be framed:
– advance forecasts and warning on storm surge and
cyclones may be shared;
– movement of vessels carrying dangerous materials
including oil may be monitored;
– ‘search and rescue’ operation after a major natural
disaster can be launched;
– data on tidal characteristics may be shared to monitor
impacts of sea level rise, etc.
• HADR related activities can act as a springboard for
greater cooperative engagements within the IOR.
Thank you for your patience