Transcript Differential vulnerability and dilemma of responses to climate

Differential Vulnerability and Dilemma of Responses to Climate Change in
Low-income Coastal Communities of Lagos
Peter Elias
Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Nigeria
2nd International UGEC Conference
Urban transitions & transformations
National Taipei University
Nov.. 6-8, 2014
Introduction
 Reality of Impact of climate change as depicted by recent flood events
 Low-income coastal communities are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change
 Efforts are ongoing to mitigate and adapt
 High profile of socially disadvantaged coastal communities with high levels of poverty,
deprivation or spatial segregation abound in Lagos
 Uncoordinated responses and reactions
 Inadequate capacities and adequacy of planning
Problem Statement
Responses to climate impacts are usually spontaneous without
adequate data and knowledge on factors, pathways, exposure,
risks and vulnerability
Leading to failure of adequately depicting good intentions and
their unforeseen consequences and the not-so good intentions
and the tragic consequences and how both kinds of
consequences determine climate adaptation planning
Purpose Of The Study
- Identification of hotspots across selected communities
- Characterize vulnerability & impacts of climate change
- Map spatial variation of vulnerability & impacts
- Assessing capacity of existing adaptations and responses
- Implications for urban planning and adaptation
Review of Literature
 Climate change scenarios postulate that wet regions will experience higher rainfall while dry regions will
experience prolonged droughts (IPCC, 2007).
 Current environmental problems in the coastal areas of the country include flooding which comes from the high
rainfall amount, run-off from rivers, and sea level rise (Adeoti et al 2010).
 According to Etuonovbe (2011), Lagos recorded the first flood in early 1970s and till date, flood has become a
perennial event in the state.
 The magnitude and severity of the changes and impacts in affected areas are however largely human-related
(Andjelkovic, 2001).
Review of Literature (Contd.)
 The cause of flooding varies from different areas to another.
 Adeaga (2009) identified multi-factors viz including high population density, absence of zoning regulations, lack of
flood control, and lack of emergency response infrastructure and early warning systems.
 Similarly, Adenekan (2009) highlighted major causes of floods in built-up areas particularly in cities of developing
countries to include unrestrained development of impermeable surfaces due to increasing urbanization resulting
from increase runoff volume, runoff responses under high intensity rainfall, erection of building on floodplains, lack
of storm-water drainage, failure to maintain existing drainage systems and weak institutional capacity of the urban
administration. Changes in the intensity and pattern of storms have also been listed as factors that may influence
the risk of flooding.
 According to Smith1996 & Angela 2011, flood is the most common of all environmental hazards and it regularly
claims over 20,000 lives and adversely affects about 75 million people world over
The Study Area: Lagos State belongs to the
barrier-lagoon complex system with a stretch of
curvilinear coastal
line that
measures
approximately 180 km (about 21.1% of the
Nigerian coastline). It occupies a total land area
of about 3,577 sq. km, making it the smallest
state in the country. It is located within longitude
2042’E and 3042’E, and latitude 6022’N and
6052’. Lagos state is bounded to the south by the
Atlantic Ocean; to the north and the eastern end
by Ogun State and Benin Republic on the
western end. Lagos State drains two-thirds of
south-western Nigeria and is characterized by
homogenous
albeit
locally-differentiated
wetlands and a number of basins for major
upstream rivers (Ogun, Osun and Yewa) from
adjoining states to discharge into the Bight of
Benin (Atlantic Ocean). The state is laced with
fresh-water creeks, rivers, streams and lagoons.
The low-lying areas of the state and the wetlands
occupy about 78% of the entire landmass.
Results: Identified Flooded Communities in 2010 & 2011 Flood Events
Master plan
Badagry
2010
2011
Gbaji, Yeke, Joforo, Kese, Pashi, and parts of Seme Border
(6)
Areas Severely Affected
Mile 2 Estate, Okokomaiko, LASU-Ojo, Alaba, Gbaji, Yeke, Joforo, Kese, Pashi, and
parts of Seme Border
(10)
Lekki
Lekki phase 1 & 2, Alpha Beach, Langbasa, Peninsular (4)
Lekki phase 1& 2, Alpba Beach, Langbasa
Ikoyi/Victoria Island
Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Dolphin (3)
Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Ozumba Mbadiwe (3)
Ikeja/Oshodi
Awolowo road, Anifowose, GRA,Ogba
(3)
(3)
Awolowo Road, Anifowose, GRA, Ogba, Ipodo, Ojodu, Jakande Estate – Oke Afa
Isolo, Ejigbo (9)
Lagos Island
Obalende, Lagos Island, Marina (3)
Obalende, Lagos Island, Marina (3)
Apapa
Apapa, Orile, Iganmu (3)
Alimosho
Ijegun, Ije-Ododo, Ijagemo
Apapa, Olodi Apapa, Ajegunle, Orile (4)
Aboru Canal, Iyana Ipaja, Lagos Abeokuta Expressway, Abule Egba, Ikotun, Ijegun,
(3)
Abaranje, Ijedodo, Isheri, Cele
(10)
Mainland Central
Makoko, Iwaya, Ebute-Meta,Ijora, Akerele-Surulere, Adekunle-Yaba (6)
Ikorodu
Oko-Obi, Kosofo, Ajegunle-Ikorodu, Ikosi Ketu, Owode Elede, Thomas Laniyan Ketu Alapere, Mile 12, Ajiliti, Thomas Laniyan Estate, Owode Onirin, Agboyi, Owode
Estate, Owode Onirin, Agboyi Ketu, Owode Orile, Odo Ogun, Mile 12, Itowolo Elede (7)
and Ajiliti
Makoko, Iwaya, Ebute-Meta, Ijora, Adekunle (5)
(13)
Agege
Isheri North, Ojodu-Berger, Agege, Abatoir Canal, Orile Agege (5)
Isheri North, Ojodu-Berger, Agege, Abbatoir Canal, Orile Agege
(5)
Pattern of Precipitation & Rainy Days in Lagos
S/N
Month
Precipitation
(mm)
Average
Rainy Days
1
January
28
2
2
Ferbruary
46
3
3
March
102
7
4
April
150
10
5
May
269
16
6
June
460
20
7
July
279
16
8
August
64
101
9
September
140
14
10
October
206
16
11
Novemebr
69
7
12
Decemebr
25
2
State Total
1828
123
Frequency of Flooding in Lagos
1-2
Ibeju-Lekki
Amuwo Odofin
Ajeromi-Ifelodun
Eti-Osa
Lagos-Island
Badagry
Lagos-Mainland
Alimosho
Somolu
Ifako-Ijaiye
Mushin
Apapa
Ikorodu
Kosofe
Ojo
Ikeja
Surulere
Agege
Oshodi-Isolo
Epe
STATE AVERAGE
25
5
16
13
15
28
19
35
23
21
7
17
22
21
15
6
17
17
30
35
20
3-4
23
24
26
18
16
17
16
33
35
44
50
44
33
15
54
54
55
43
53
34
5-6
3
6
12
4
14
9
8
9
15
14
42
14
5
3
8
12
9
>6
75
73
57
56
55
52
50
40
37
36
34
33
33
29
28
26
24
24
19
37
Level of Impacts & Risks in 2010
Master
Plan Area
Impacts
Probability
Risk
Ikeja
Moderate
Likely
High
Mainland
Moderate
Likely
High
Badagry
Moderate
Likely
High
Alimosho
Major
Likely
High
Ikoyi/Victoria
Island
Lekki
Major
Very Likely
Very high
Major
Very Likely
Very high
Lagos Island
Major
Likely
High
Apapa
Moderate
Likely
High
Ikorodu
Major
Likely
Very High
Agege
Major
Likely
High
Level of Impacts & Risks in 2011
Master Plan Area
Impacts
Probability
Risk
Ikeja
Moderate
Likely
High
Mainland
Moderate
Likely
High
Badagry
Major
Very Likely
Very high
Alimosho
Major
Likely
High
Ikoyi/Victoria Island
Major
Very Likely
Very high
Lekki
Major
Very Likely
Very high
Lagos Island
Major
Likely
High
Moderate
Likely
High
Ikorodu
Major
Likely
Very High
Agege
Major
Likely
High
Apapa
Types of Responses & Actors’ Roles in Urban Climate Adaptation
Roles/Actors
Federal
Government
State Government Local Government
Communities/NGOs
Private Sector
Households
/Individuals
Policy making and planning
+
+
Data base creation/
management
Vulnerability
assessment/mapping
Awareness and education
campaigns
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Early warning systems design
and implementation
+
+
+
+
+
Design and decision-making
for investments
+
+
+
+
+
Risk reduction, livelihood
development and resource
management
Capacity building
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Implications & Recommendations
 Selected communities in coastal Lagos have different vulnerability, impacts &
risks
 Responses and adaptation are highly uncoordinated and complex.
 Multi-level and inter-agency approach clearly defining roles and power must be
encouraged
 Lagos State, should, therefore, without prejudice to politics and sentiments
strengthen her strategies and partnerships with relevant agencies beyond the
state government to take advantage of available resources at all levels towards
capacity building for climate change adaptation.
Thank you