Transcript Time series of temperature in study area

Temperature and fish
community in the Cantabrian
Sea
Punzón, A, López-López, L., González-Irusta, JM, Tel, E., Preciado,
I., Hidalgo, M., Serrano, A., Sánchez, F., Velasco, F. , Blanco, M.,
Ruiz, S., Zapico, O. and Massuti, E.
CLIFISH PN I+D+I (MINECO/FEDER)
ERDEM (IEO)
Porto, 5-9 Septiembre 2016
Contents
Climate changes effects on demersal fish
The case of the Cantabrian sea
Hypothesis
Material and Methods
Results & Tentative Conclusions
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Climate change in Notheast Atlantic
Sea surface temperature (SST),
showing the mean for 2003–2007
minus the 1978–1982 mean. The
plots are based on NOAA NCDC
ERSST version 2, which is an
extended reconstruction of global
SST data based on ICOADS
(Worley et al., 2005) monthly
summary trimmed group data
(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/).
Tasker et al., 2008 (ICES Cooperative Research Report)
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Effect of Climate Change in the Baltic Sea
Distributional changes of
fish communities from
2004 to 2012.
Centre
of
distribution
(circle:
2004,
square:
2012) and track line for
dierent communities
Fossheim et al., 2015 (Nature Climate change)
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Effect of Climate Change in the North Sea
Examples of North Sea fish
distributions
that have shifted north with
climatic
warming.
Relationships
between mean latitude
and 5-year running mean
winter bottom
temperature for (A) cod, (B)
anglerfish,
and (C) snake blenny are
shown. In (D), ranges
of shifts in mean latitude
are shown for (A),
(B), and (C) within the
North Sea. Bars on
the map illustrate only shift
ranges of mean
latitudes, not longitudes.
Arrows indicate
where shifts have been
significant over time,
with
the
direction
of
movement
Perry et al., 2005 (Science)
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Background: Cantabrian Sea
A. Punzón A. Serrano, F. Sánchez, F. Velasco, I. Preciado, J.M. González-Irusta, L. López-López , 2016. Response of a
temperate demersal fish community to global warming. Journal of Marne System
From the total of species were selected 71 species
(only those species which were identified at least in 30 samples)
Sampling square with significative changes in Richness
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Changes in the distribution (1 sp)
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Frecuency of Occurrence (FO): trends by specie
Frecuency of Occurrence (FO) trends by specie
% of species (71 sps) with significative changes in FO
8%
54%
38%
Negative
No trend
Positive
Biogeographical affinities
1 African
37 Lusitanian
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Meridionalization of the Cantabrian Sea
CIESM, 2008 (CIESM Workshop Monographs)
• Meridionalization: When an increase in the abundance of native
fauna with southern affinities occurs
37 WITH LUSITANIAN
AFFINITIES INCREASE
fo & Ab
• Tropicalization: When an increase in the abundance of nonnative species with tropical or sub-tropical affinities takes place
1 with african
affinities increase
fo & Ab
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Hypothesis
If changes are occurring in the common species that
inhabit the study area (ΔFO & ΔAb), it should lead to
changes in the demersal fish assemblage
And if these changes are due to temperature, these changes
should have a similar spatio-temporal structure of the
temperature in the study area
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Material and
Methods
Data Sources
• International Bottom Trawl Surveys
• Time Series: 1983:2015
• Season: ~ 15 Sept-25 October
• Stratified Random Sampling
• by Geographical Sector
• by Depth Strata
• ~120 Samplings (otter trawl) by year
• CTD by haul (1993-2015)
• Species Selection: 71 sps
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
MTC: Mean temperature of the catch
MTC: Evaluate the changes in fish assemblages related to
temperature
Inspired by
Cheung et al, 2013 (Nature) &
Collie et al., 2008 (Canadian Journal of
Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences)
Ti  Mean tempe rature of specie i
Phycis blennoides
Ti  14.27
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
MTC: Mean temperature of the catch
n
 Ab T
MTC s  spi
i
i
n
 Ab
sp i
i
MTCs= mean temperature of the catch sample/haul s
Abi= Abundance sp i
Ti
= Mean Temperature of sp i
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Statistical analysis
Spatial Interpolation
Data Interpolating Variational Analysis (Diva)
Time series analysis of the MTC
General Additive Models (GAM)
Time series analysis of the MTC by sample station
Nested General Linear Model (GLMn)
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RESULTS
Temperature in study area
Oceanographic scenario during survey
•Autunm-Winter (SW Wind)
• Poleward slope current (warm)
• Spring-Summer (NE Wind)
• Coastal Upwelling
Ruiz-Villarreal et al., 2006 (Marine Pollution Bulletin)
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Gil & Sánchez 2003 (ICES Marine Science Symposia)
MTC by geographical sector and depth strata
CTD Data
1993-2015
Depth
strata (50m)
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Geographical sector
MTC by depth strata and geographical sector
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Spatial distribution of MTC
MTC Mean of time series by
sampling station
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Time series of temperature in study area
Time Series of temperature of intermediate water masses
González-Pola et al., 2005 (Journal of Geophysical Research)
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
Time series of temperature in study area
Sea Surface Temperature (SST):
NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) SST V2
NCEP Climate Modeling Branch/National Centers for Environmental Prediction
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Temporal trend of MTC sampling stations
Temporal Trend in sampling stations
(only statistically significant trends)
Temporal trend of MTC by geographical sector
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Temporal trend of MTC in the study area
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Provisional conclusions
• There are a relationship between MTC and the temperature
at the different spatial levels.
• The temporal trend in MTC and temperature are similar
• Increase the contribution of the temperate species to the
demersal fish assemblages
• The MTC could be a good tool to track the effect of the
temperature on the fish assemblage
XIX Iberian Symposium on Marine Biology Studies, Porto
¡Muito Obrigado!