Transcript Climate Change: The Move to Action

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
Richard B. Rood
734-647-3530
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
Winter 2008
January 24, 2008
Class News
• A ctools site for all
– AOSS 480 001 W08
• This is the official repository for lectures
• Email [email protected]
• Class Web Site and Wiki
–Climate Change: The Move to
Action
–Winter 2008 Term
Readings on Local Servers
• Assigned
– IPCC Working Group I: Summary for Policy
Makers
• Of Interest
– Lean: Living with a Variable Sun
– Doney: Ocean Acidification
Lectures coming up
• http://www.snre.umich.edu/events
• The Policy and Politics of Science and
Technology on Capitol Hill // Speaker: Tind
Shepper Ryen, Professional Staff, Committee on
Science, U.S. House of Representatives
Date: Monday, 28 January, 4:00-5:30pm // 1110
Weill Hall (Betty Ford Classroom)
• MLK Day Keynote Speaker: Dr. Warren
Washington // Climate Modeling // Tuesday,
February 5, 2008 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm //Location:
Stamps Auditorium, North Campus, Charles R.
Walgreen, Jr. Drama Center
Lectures coming up
• Erb Speaker Series: Jim Nixon, Alcoa,
"Challenges for an Energy Intensive
Business in a Carbon Constrained
World" Tuesday, February 5, 2008 5:00pm to 6:30pm Ross School, Wyly
0750
Outline of Lecture
• An outline of project “form”
• Who are we
– Some discussion
• Radiative Balance of the Earth
• Feedbacks: Responses to global warming
Projects
• Think of project in the following ways:
– You work as a congressional staffer or an
agency staffer. You are asked to analyze
whether or not we should drill for oil on the
north slope of Alaska. You are required to
consider climate change in the analysis. You
are to make a team of experts from your staff.
Provide a set of knowledge-based options for
your congresswoman.
Projects
• or think of project this way:
– You are a small company of 3-5 people,
working as a startup providing climate
expertise. A major paper company calls and
wants to know how to think about it’s timber
reserves in the presence of possible climate
change policy.
Projects
• or maybe this way:
– You work for a credit card company which for
every purchase you make, they estimate the
amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the
atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to
neutralize the emission. You are asked to
quantify and validate that the program is good
for the environment.
Projects
• or even this way:
– You are in the Michigan state government,
and Michigan is going to be the energy state.
Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are
part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of
this energy policy to climate change.
Projects
• The point --- There is a complex problem,
and there are a many different
communities invested in how the problem
is addressed. There is a relationship with
climate change. You want to make a
knowledge-based evaluation of the
problem and present an approach or a set
of possible approaches to address the
problem. (Want you to be very aware of
“advocacy” in your thinking.)
Projects: Goals and Context
• In school students often learn to work independently, in their field,
but in jobs people are often thrown into teams
– You are suddenly the “expert.”
• Goals
– How to define a tractable problem // reduce it to something you can do
• Drawing a picture
– How to separate the essence of a problem from the details
– What do we know, what do we believe, what are we attached to?
– What do the other participants really need – not what you think they
need.
– Check, How to Check
– Communication
• Complexity, sophistication, audience, context, naivety, dumbing down
• How to explain what you are doing.
– Balance, optimization
Projects
• Bigger goals ...
– How do we move this problem beyond polarized
positions on details.
• Move it from climate-policy, climate-business, climate-public
health, climate-agriculture, climate-ecosystems, climate...(interest advocacy groups)
• to climate-business-policy-public health - ecosystems
– How do we bring several communities together for the
development of foundational solutions or at least
strategies that make sense.
– Systems, systems, systems
Deconstructing how to think about projects.
1) Describe what is
in the picture. What
are the facts? Make
an inventory of what
is known. Make an
inventory of what is
not known.
4) What to do?
Consequences?
Options?
2) Analysis: How
credible is the
information? What
is the integrity of the
reporting? How
complete is the
picture? Is there
derived knowledge?
…
3) Does it matter?
Impact.
Consequences.
Relations
Why?
An interesting book for thinking about projects:
(Example of process, deconstruction, …)
Climate Change: Debating America’s Policy Options
David Victor (2004)
Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY
166 pages.
Previous projects
 New Orleans and Sea Level Rise
 New Orleans and post-Katrina Public Health
 Great Lake Fisheries and Climate Change
 Carbon Taxes and Carbon Markets
 Role of World Trade Organization in Carbon Policy
 Texas Coal Power Plants: CO2 and Public Health Costs
Who are we?
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Byers, Brian ( byersbh ) AOSS 480 001
W08
Carey, Erin ( careyeb ) NRE 501 076 W08
Ervin, Joan ( ervinj ) AOSS 480 001 W08
Felt, Justin ( feltju ) NRE 501 076 W08
Fishman, Daniel ( dbfish ) NRE 501 076
W08
Horton, Daniel ( danethan ) AOSS 480 001
W08
Johns, Owen ( orjohns ) NRE 501 076
W08
Johnson, Jaclyn ( jackiejo ) NRE 501 076
W08
Knudson, Karla ( knudsonk ) AOSS 480
001 W08
Kosmyna, Eric ( ekoz ) AOSS 480 001
W08
Lorenz, Susan ( selorenz ) NRE 501 076
W08
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Mack, Charlotte ( charmack ) NRE 501
076 W08
Oaida, Catalina ( oaidac ) AOSS 480 001
W08
Rabinsky, Mark ( rabinsky ) NRE 501 076
W08
Reed, David ( dereed ) AOSS 480 001 W08
Reed, Kevin ( kareed ) AOSS 480 001
W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3
Schlichting, Eric ( eschlich ) AOSS 480
001 W08
Tawfik, Ahmed ( abtawfik ) AOSS 480 001
W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3,
Thoumi, Gabriel ( thoumi ) NRE 501 076
W08
Ullrich, Paul ( paullric ) AOSS 605 002
W08 3
Whitehead, Jared ( jaredwh ) AOSS 605
002 W08 3
Wurtzel, Jennifer ( jbwurtz ) AOSS 480
001 W08
What do we have?
• We started by looking at some of the basic
motivators of concern about climate change.
– Basic idea that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
are responsible for the Earth’s surface being warm.
– Adding more greenhouse gases; therefore, likely
warmer.
– Have evidence of consequential climate change in the
past.
– Have predictions of climate change and its impacts in
the future.
To understand the climate
• Introduce the conservation principle.
• Use conservation to think about the
energy and CO2 balance in the Earth.
• Trace the sun’s energy through the
atmosphere.
– Where does it go?
• How does the Earth react?
Changes in
the sun
So what matters?
THIS IS WHAT WE
ARE DOING
Things that
change
reflection
Things that
change
absorption
If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.
More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere
• FEEDBACKS ....
– The idea that one thing causes a second thing
to happen.
• That second thing then does something to the first
thing
– It damps it, negative feedback
– It amplifies it, positive feedback
The Earth System: Feedbacks 1
Infrared Proportional to Temperature
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same
• Infrared emission is proportional to temperature
• Temperature increases  emission increases
• Equilibrium is maintained
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE
The Earth System: Feedbacks 2
Water Vapor
When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas,
will be in the atmosphere
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Higher temperature increases evaporation from land
and ocean
• Higher temperature allows air to hold more water
• Increase of water increases thickness of blanket –
increases temperature more
• This could runaway!
• Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain?
• Compensating circulation changes?
• Think deserts …
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE
The Earth System: Feedbacks 3
Ice - Albedo
When it gets warmer less ice
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Less ice means less reflection  warmer
• Warmer means less ice
• This could runaway!
• Cooler works the other way  ice-covered
ICE
The Earth System: Feedbacks 4
Clouds?
Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the
sign of their impact
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Warmer  more water  more clouds
• More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler
• More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer
• More or less clouds?
• Does this stabilize?
• Water in all three phases essential to stable climate
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE
The Earth System: Feedbacks 5
Something with the Ocean?
Is there something with the ocean and ice?
• Land ice melting decreases ocean salinity (density)
• Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and
atmosphere
• Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean
• North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very
important to the climate
• Think Gulf Stream
• Think climate and people and economy
• Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate?
• Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps
not stable from a societal point of view.
Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback
• Some carry away messages
– This is where much of the discussion about scientific
uncertainty resides.
– The Earth is at a complex balance point
• That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases.
– Too warm could run away to “greenhouse”
– Too cold run away to “snowball” ice
vapor
– How clouds change is not well understood and much
argued.
– Is there something in all of this that changes the sign;
namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by
more cooling?
• The Iris Effect?
HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND