Transcript 08-jones.pps2011-07-12 00:58847 KB - Asia

Adaptation, Vulnerability and Integrated
Risk Assessment
Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research
Symposium on Global Change Research
March 23, Canberra
Roger N. Jones
Atmospheric Research
Risk
Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an
adverse event or outcome
How does this relate to Article 2 of the
UNFCCC?
Atmospheric Research
Article 2 UNFCCC
Consequence
Aims to prevent dangerous
Hazard anthropogenic climate change
by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions,
thus allowing
Management
options Through adaptation and mitigation
Ecosystems to adapt naturally
Management
Food security to be maintained
criteria
Sustainable development to proceed
Atmospheric Research
What is dangerous climate change?
This is a value judgement best assessed by
policymakers, stakeholders and the community.
Research can help with problem definition,
plausibility and likelihood of various aspects
Global thresholds of criticality: grounded ice sheet
melts, N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions,
Amazon wilts and burns in heat and drought
Local thresholds of criticality: any activity where
impacts become non-viable with no reasonable
substitute or the harm caused exceeds given levels of
tolerance
Atmospheric Research
Attaching likelihood
What is the likelihood of exceeding given
levels of criticality without risk
management?
What type and level of management is needed
to reduce these risks?
These questions can be assessed on a range of
scales
Atmospheric Research
Risk management
Mitigation – reduces climate hazards
Adaptation – reduces the consequences for a
given level of climate-related hazard
Adaptation may act to:
• reduce harm,
• take advantage of benefits, and
• modify ongoing change processes
Atmospheric Research
Linking climate to adaptation over time
Climate
system
Impacted
activity
Socioeconomic
system
Current
climate
Current
adaptations
Future
climate
Future
adaptations
Atmospheric Research
Measuring the ability to cope
Loss
Profit
Loss
Loss
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Critical Threshold
Probability
Vulnerable
Profit
Coping
Range
Critical Threshold
Atmospheric Research
Coping under climate change
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Coping
Range
Planning Horizon
Vulnerable
Atmospheric Research
Four pillars of climate risk analysis
• Most systems affected by climate variability have
evolved to cope with that variability to some extent
• Climate change will mainly be felt as changes to
climate variability and extremes.
• Without adaptation, damages will increase with
successively higher levels of global warming
• Critical thresholds occurring at low levels of global
warming and sea level rise are much more likely to be
exceeded than those occurring at higher levels
Atmospheric Research
Cumulative Exposure Time (Days)
Bleaching thresholds
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
28.5
29
29.5
30
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
Temperature (°C)
Magnetic Is
Davies Rf
Myrmidon Rf
Atmospheric Research
Simulated historical bleaching
events at Magnetic Island
Days Bleaching
Bleaching Degree Days
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1-Jul-90
1-Jul-92
1-Jul-94
1-Jul-96
1-Jul-98
1-Jul-00
Year
Bleach days
Bleach Degree Days
Atmospheric Research
Mortality threshold
Davies
°C above bleaching threshold
Keppels 1st estim.
Keppels 2nd estim.
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
10
20
30
Cumulative days exposure
Atmospheric Research
Bleaching severity
Bleaching
level
Impact
Recovery
Bleaching
Loss of color
<1 year
+ 0.5°C
Some mortality
(e.g. 1998, 2002)
1-3 years
+ 1.0°C
Widespread mortality
(transplant experiments)
Not experienced –
but worse
Not experienced –
but even worse
3-? years
Not experienced –
catastrophic?
Decades +
+ 1.5°C
+ 2.0°C
+ 2.5°C
Longer
Longer
Atmospheric Research
Warming (°C)
Bleaching risk as a function of
warming
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
1990
Bleaching+2.5
100%
Bleaching+2.5
>50%
Bleaching+2.0
>50%
Bleaching+1.5
>50%
Bleaching+1.0
>50%
Bleaching+0.5
>50%
Bleaching
>50%
Bleaching
<50%
0
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
Global warming
Upper limit of possibility
50% likely to be exceeded
100% likely to be exceeded
Atmospheric Research
When is the coping range of coral
reef communities exceeded?
• Physical bleaching rates
• Ecosystem damage
• People’s livelihoods affected (e.g.
fishing, tourism)
• Policy objectives
• Species/ecosystem rights to exist
• Are we happy with algal mats and
seaweed?
Atmospheric Research
Bioclimatic thresholds exceeded as a
function of warming
8
7
Warming (°C)
6
5
4
2100
3
2050
2
1
2030
0
0
10
20
30
40
Number of Species
Atmospheric Research
Macquarie River Catchment
Macquarie
Marshes
Major Areas of
Abstraction
Burrendong Dam
Macquarie R
Contributing
Area

Area ~ 75,000 km2

P = 1000 to <400 mm.

Major dams: Burrendong and
Windamere

Water demands: irrigation
agriculture; Macquarie
Marshes; town supply

Most flow from upper
catchment runoff

Most demand in the lower
catchment
Windamere Dam
Atmospheric Research
Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows
- historical climate and 1996 rules
100
Flow (Gl x 10)
80
1,000,000
60
40
100,000
20
10,000
1890
Irrigation allocation (%)
10,000,000
0
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Year
Allocations
Marshes
Atmospheric Research
Critical thresholds
Macquarie River Catchment
Irrigation
5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right
Wetlands
10 consecutive years below bird breeding events
Both thresholds are exceeded if mean streamflow decreases
• by 10% under a drought-dominated climate,
• by 20% under a normal climate and
• by 30% under a flood-dominated climate
Atmospheric Research
Risk analysis results
Macquarie 2030
DDR
N or m a l
FD R
-10
-20
-30
C um u la tiv e P rob ability
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20
10
0
-40
C ha nge in sup ply (% )
B u r ren d on g
M a rsh es
Irr ig ation
Atmospheric Research
Change in risk as a function of
global warming
6
Warming (°C)
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
2070
2090
100
0
-100 0
Change in mean annual flow (%)
Upper limit
5th Percentile
50th Percentile
95th Percentile
Lower limit
50
100
Probability of threshold
exceedance
Flood-dominated
Long-term mean
Drought-dominated
Atmospheric Research
Metrics for measuring costs
•
•
•
•
•
Monetary losses (gains)
Loss of life
Change in quality of life
Species and habitat loss
Distributional equity
Atmospheric Research
Estimating ‘dangerous climate
change’
Assumptions
1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1500 ppm
2. Climate sensitivity 1.5–4.5°C
3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2
Randomly sampled at uniform
distribution
Atmospheric Research
Temperature at stabilisation
9
8
Probability (%)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature at stabilisation
Atmospheric Research
Temperature at stabilisation
Probability of exceedance (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature at stabilisation
Atmospheric Research
Probabilities of meeting temperature
targets at given levels of CO2 stabilisation
Probability of meeting target
100
80
Prob <1.5
Prob <2
Prob <2.5
Prob <3
Prob <3.5
Prob <4
Prob <4.5
Prob <5
Prob <5.5
Prob <6
60
40
20
0
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
CO2 at stabilisation
Atmospheric Research
Estimating ‘dangerous climate
change’ - Take 2
Assumptions
1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1000 ppm
(uniform)
2. Climate sensitivity Expert (Forrest et al.
non linear)
3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2 , linked to
CO2 (non linear)
Randomly sampled
Atmospheric Research
Temperature at stabilisation
Probability of exceedance (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature at stabilisation
Atmospheric Research
Temperature at stabilisation
Probability of exceedance (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature at stabilisation
Atmospheric Research
Adaptation and mitigation
• Adaptation increases the coping range
through biological and social means
• Mitigation reduces the magnitude and
frequency of greenhouse-related climate
hazards
Therefore, they are complementary, not
interchangeable.
They also reduce different areas of climate
uncertainty
Atmospheric Research
Moving forward
Adaptation
Most suited to impacts
vulnerable to current
climate risks or small
changes in climate
change (These are the
most likely to be
affected)
Cannot cope with large
changes or many
impacts (too expensive
and difficult)
Adaptation will be local
and mainly shorterterm adjustments
Mitigation
Reduces climate hazards (e.g.
global warming) progressively
from the top down.
Unlikely to prevent a certain level
of climate change – adaptation
will be needed for such
changes.
Mitigation that presents as a cost
now will become profitable
when damages become more
apparent and BAU for the
energy system changes to low
emission operation
Atmospheric Research
Low probability, extreme outcomes
Least likely
Moderately
likely
Considerable
damage to most
systems
Increased
damage to
many systems,
fewer benefits
Highly likely
Almost certain
Damage to the
most sensitive,
many benefits
Happening now
Vulnerable to
current climate
Probability
Consequence
Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation
Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming
Consequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming
Risk = Probability × Consequence
Activities most at risk
Those where
• critical thresholds are exceeded at low
levels of global warming,
• adaptive capacity is low and/or
adaptation is prohibitively expensive,
difficult or unknown and
• the consequences of exceeding those
thresholds are judged to be serious
Atmospheric Research