Transcript Martin Kernan, Environmental Change Research

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Euro-limpacs : Integrated
Project to Evaluate the Impacts
of Global Change on European
Freshwater Ecosystems
http://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk
Martin Kernan, Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL
1st EIONET workshop on climate change vulnerability, impacts
and adaptation EEA, Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007
Euro-limpacs is funded by the European Union under Thematic
Sub-Priority 1.1.6.3 “Global Change and Ecosystems"
of the 6th Framework Programme
Co-ordinators: Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Rationale
•Climate changing rapidly beyond
the range of recent (historical)
natural variability
•Aquatic ecosystems under stress
from land use change and
pollution face additional
pressures from climate change
•Need to understand direct effects
of climate change and also
indirect impacts through
interaction with pollutants
Future climate change In Europe
Mean temperature anomaly
for 2069-2099
• hotter everywhere
• west-east and north- south
gradients
HadRM3 - A2a TEMP
•Availability and quality of
freshwater determines functioning
of every ecosystem.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Objectives I
•to improve understanding of how
global change, especially climate
change in its interaction with other
drivers (land-use change, nutrient
loading, acid deposition, toxic
pollution) has changed, is
changing and will change the
structure and functioning of
European freshwater ecosystems;
•to encapsulate this understanding
in the form of predictive, testable
models;
Future climate change In Europe
Mean precipitation anomaly,
2069 - 2099
• little change in mid-latitudes
• wetter in the north
• drier in the south
HadRM3 A2a PRECIP
•to identify key taxa, structures or
processes (indicators of aquatic
ecosystem health) that clearly
indicate impending or realised
global change through their loss,
occurrence or behaviour;
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Objectives II
•to identify better approaches for the renaturalisation of ecosystems and habitats in
the context of global change that will lead to
the successful fulfilment of the Water
Framework Directive (WFD) in achieving good
ecological status in freshwater habitats;
•to provide guidance, in the form of useable
models, decision support systems and other
appropriate tools to respond to the
interactions between climate and other
changes, in the best interests of conservation
of the goods and services provided to the
community by its freshwater systems;
•to communicate this information and
understanding to users, stakeholders and the
wider public.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Euro-limpacs- Work programme structure
WP1.
Direct Impacts of
Climate Change
WP2.
Climatehydromorphology
interactions
WP3.
Climatenutrient
interactions
WP4.
Climateacidification
interactions
WP5.
Climate-toxic
substances
interactions
WP6.
Integrated
Catchment Modelling
and Analysis
WP7.
Indicators of
ecosystem health
WP8.
Reference
conditions &
restoration
strategies
WP10.
Dissemination &
Training
WP9.
Tools for catchment
management
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Temporal Themes I: Episodes
What will be the magnitude, frequency and severity of episodic events
in future?
7
For example:
1979-1984
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-2001
6.5
With respect to surface water acidification,
currently ANC is increasing, and
the severity of acid episodes in rivers
is decreasing. What will be the case
in future with changed timing of snowmelt,
flooding and temperature?
pH
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Discharge (l/s)
Long-term changes in the pH-discharge
relationship of the Afon Gwy, Wales
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Temporal Themes II: Seasonality
How will ecosystems respond to seasonal shifts in temperature
and precipitation? Provide a coherent framework where to
integrate the knowledge gained throughout Euro-limpacs on
seasonal dynamics of freshwater European systems
For example:
Global warming is expressed by
warmer winters rather than
warmer summers. How might
this affect the timing of the
spring bloom?
Asterionella formosa spring bloom for Esthwaite
Asterionella formosa spring bloom for Esthwaite
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Temporal Themes III: Decadal scale
How will ecosystems
respond to decadalscale changes in mean
climate?
Can we combine palaeorecords with data from
long-term observations
to provide
longer high quality timeseries for analysis?
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Sediment core sites with co-located monitoring
All sites in database with a palaeo record. Green =
also a monitored site
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Direct Impacts of future climate
change
What are the likely changes
to structure and functioning
of ecosystems resulting
from climate change
(temperature, precipitation)
that are independent of
natural variability and other
human impacts (e.g.
acidification, land use
change, eutrophication)
(Photo Anton Brancelj)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Climate – hydromorphology
interactions
How will climate change interact with
hydromorphological and land use change
to affect aquatic ecosystems at the reach
and microhabitat scale

more intense:
loss of buffer
strips

land use
Will climate change lead to a deterioration
of catchment hydrology and channel
climate
morphology (e.g. land use changes
causing habitat loss)?
Will climate change lead to an
improvement if, for example, human
disturbances are withdrawn from
floodplains due to increased flooding
frequency



withdrawed:
increase of
buffer strips
decreasing
substrate stability,
silting, scouring
(lowland rivers)



deteriorating
morphology
and biodiversity
deteriorating
nutrient
retention
improving
morphology
and biodiversity
deteriorating
morphology
and biodiversity
hydrology
(more intense floods)

removal of
floodplain finesediment cover
(mountain rivers)

braided sections
and increasing
biodiversity
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Climate – eutrophication interactions
LAKES: Will increased temperature interact with continued high nutrient loading to
increase the severity of eutrophication symptoms to an extent greater than that
expected from natural fluctuations in climate?
STREAMS/FLOODPLAINS: Will predicted
prolonged low-flow periods increase
denitrification and sedimentation rates?
Will increased winter flows enhance the
deposition of sediment-associated
nutrients and nitrogen removal rates?
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Climate – acidification interactions
What are the effects of long-term and
seasonal changes in temperature and
precipitation on the leaching of nitrogen,
dissolved organic carbon and sulphate?
What are the effects of increased
frequency of episodic inputs of water and
sea-salts on acidification pulses?
What are the effects of these factors on the
recovery of acidified freshwaters?
(Monteith et al.)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Climate – toxic substances
interaction
How will future climate change
influence the distribution
patterns and mobility of organic
pollutants and toxic metals (lead,
cadmium, mercury) in freshwater
systems?
How might this lead to changes
in the uptake and accumulation
of these substances in
freshwater food chains?
Will climate change result in a
remobilisation of toxic
substances stored in catchment
soils?
(Grimalt et al.)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches - Palaeolimnology
• response to natural climate variability
•climate impacts on sediment accumulation
• past interaction between climate and nutrient impact
• identification of modern analogues for pre-acidification
and pre-eutrophication status
• remobilisation of trace metals in eroding upland organic
soils
• definition of reference conditions and restoration targets
Diatom analysis of varved
sediments from Kassjon between
400 BC and 400 AD
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches – long-term data-sets
Temperature [°C]
• data-sets on chemical mass flux, air temperature and precipitation
• data-sets on glacier retreat and extreme events (floods) in the Alps
• data-sets on river, lake surface temperature, lake temperature profiles, ice-on
and ice-out dates for rivers and lakes
• data-sets on macro-invertebrate populations in rivers
• data-sets for nutrient chemistry and phytoplankton for five nutrient-rich large lakes
(Lakes Constance, Maggiore,
Windermere, Esthwaite, Leven
11
and Lomond
water
10
• data-sets for chemistry of 58
acidified lakes and streams with
9
over 15 years data
air
8
7
1965
David
Livingstone
EAWAG
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Increase in stream and river temperature in Switzerland
1965-2002 – decrease in brown trout catch after 1987-8
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches – field experiments
• lake response to increased input of mixing energy (THERMOS) in Finland
02-aug
03-aug
40
30
20
20
03-aug
02-aug
01-aug
31-jul
30-jul
29-jul
-60
-80
solid lines are concentrations in the input
29-jul
28-jul
27-jul
26-jul
25-jul
24-jul
28-jul
27-jul
26-jul
25-jul
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-40
23-jul
-20
0
22-jul
0
10
03-aug
31-jul
01-aug
02-aug
30-jul
01-aug
29-jul
31-jul
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60
40
ueq/l Ali
27-jul
ANC
ANC
50
Changes in stream water chemistry
at the G1 catchment at Gårdsjön after
6 days of clean water and 4 days of
sea-salt addition
30-jul
Ali
Al
26-jul
25-jul
24-jul
23-jul
22-jul
21-jul
180
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60
40
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0
03-aug
02-aug
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01-aug
30-jul
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22-jul
ueq/l SO4
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
21-jul
uq/l Ca, Mg, Na, K
• DOC generation in response to night-time warming and drought in Wales
• response of stream-water quality (N,C,S) to riparian wetland snow-cover
• in-stream nutrient retention in response to temperature, aridity and stream channel morphology
in Spain
• stream chemistry response to manipulations
Runoff response
of snow-cover, freeze-thaw cycles and soil
SBC
SO4
wetness in Norway
• chemical (including Hg and MeHg) response
to hydrological and sea-salt extremes in
Sweden
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches – mesocosm experiments
• biogeochemical response of marginal wetlands to increased flooding using intact cores
in climatically-controlled incubators
• aquatic macrophyte response to nutrients and temperature in 24 temperature controlled
tanks including sediments and mixed plankton
• plankton response to nutrients and temperature in 48 temperature controlled tanks with and
without fish
• litter decomposition response to increased temperature and nutrients in littoral wetlands using
submerged plant (Denmark)
phytoplankton (UK)
emergent plant (Switzerland)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches – paired study experiments
• paired studies of straight and braided mountain streams in relation to land-use and discharge
controls on habitat and benthic invertebrate distribution in German and other sites
• paired studies of near-natural and degraded meadering streams in relation to impact of
scouring, woody debris abundance and discharge in Germany, the Netherlands, Romania
and Sweden
• paired groundwater-fed (constant temperature) and rainwater-fed streams (ambient temperature)
comparisons to assess impact of temperature on functional structure of macro-invertebrate
community
• paired sites in Iceland with naturally warm (geothermal) and cool water for experiments
on the influence of nutrients on stream and lake communities
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches – spatial studies
• relationship between benthic diatoms and under-water irradiance along a DOC
gradient in the UK to develop a training set for DOC reconstruction
• analysis of land-use, hydromorphological and biological data for study rivers across
Europe
• data collation and analysis from sites across Europe to assess food-web, nutrient and
climate interactions, especially with respect to seasonality
• reconstruction of food-web relationships at sites from the sub-arctic to Mediterranean
using stable isotopes
• altitudinal transects in the Pyrenees, Tatras and Alps of POPs and metals in soils, snow
and fish
106
Gill net loss
Gut net uptake
Gut uptake
Gill exchange
104
103
102
PCB #180
PCB #138
PCB #153
PCB #118
PCB #52
PCB #101
DDT
PCB #28
DDE
HCB
g-HCH
101
a-HCH
• fugacity model
• OC in food, water, fish
• increases with mol. weight
• residence time in L.Redo
>10 years for >PCB#52
Flux (pg d-1)
105
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Approaches - models
• MyLake – physical lake model to simulate increased input of mixing energy in the THERMOS
experiment
• Coupled hydrophyscial/ecological modelling of climate impacts on large, deep lakes
(Maggiore, Lomond, Constance and Hornindalsvatn
• PROTECH – to simulate phytoplankton response to nutrients and climate at Esthwaite and EU-CLIME
sites
• MAGIC – to address interactions between climate and surface water acidification processes at sites
throughout Europe and in Canada
• The INCA family - Integrated catchment models for N, P,C, Hg, and sediment (INCA-N, INCA-P,
INCA-C, INCA-Tox, INCA-Sed
• Model chaining e.g HBV/MAGIC/INCA-N/Fjord models for N at Bjerkreim
INCA-N
Frilsham
Wade and
Whitehead
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Integrated catchment analysis and
modelling
Key Euro-limpacs sites
•Data collation & process
analysis at data rich
catchments
•Model development
•Uncertainty analysis
•Socio-economic integration
•Model tool-kit development
•Impact assessment
•Impact management
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Management I Reference conditions and restoration targets
•
•
•
•
•
improve methods for establishing reference conditions
for different ecosystem types (rivers, lakes and wetlands)
develop methods for validating reference conditions
develop and improve methods to establish restoration
targets
evaluate the success or failure of current restoration
strategies, and to assess the role of climate change in
influencing recovery
assess how restoration targets for different
ecosystems may need modification to accommodate the
future impact of climate change
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Management II Indicators of Ecosystem Health
OBJECTIVES
i)
to use databases to summarise knowledge on chemical,
hydrological, biological and functional indicators of
ecosystem health
ii) to generate a set of chemical,
biological and functional
parameters for monitoring
climate change impacts
iii) to expand and modify existing
assessment and prediction methods for European freshwater
ecosystems by integrating knowledge and widening their
applicability to questions of global change.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
www.freshwaterecology.info – online database on the ecological preferences and
distribution of 22,000 European freshwater taxa (diatoms, benthic invertebrates, fish)
based on the evaluation of >8,000 literature references)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Management III Catchment Modelling
and Decision Support Systems
Develop a tool-kit to simulate
hydrological, hydrochemical and
hydroecological process interactions
between rivers, lakes and wetlands within
integrated catchment systems that can
be used to assess the potential impact of
global change at the catchment scale.
(Pickering 2001)
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
WP9: Tools for catchment
management and decision support
OBJECTIVES
i)
to investigate the socio-economic pressures
on catchment management with reference to
global change and develop methods for the
socio-economic valuation of freshwater
systems;
ii) to analyse which policies and structures at
both European and national level influence
catchment management;
iii) to consult stakeholders at the European, national and catchment levels
to ensure that management strategies are appropriate and useable;
iv) to develop a user-friendly Decision Support System for effective
management of freshwaters
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Dissemination and training
Deals with the transfer of knowledge internally within Euro-limpacs and
externally with the user community and wider public.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems in
Britain: Science, Policy and Management
Sponsored by The Environment Agency
Wednesday 16th May 2007
Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL
Although climate models vary in their projection of future climate change all
are in agreement that significant further global warming will occur within this
century, principally as a result of a continuing rise in the concentration of
greenhouse gases.
Exploring the implications of these projections for the structure and
functioning of aquatic ecosystems is now a priority for freshwater scientists,
decision makers and managers. Consideration needs to be given not only to
the direct impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (e.g. with respect
to changes in temperature, precipitation and wind) but also to the indirect
impacts through interactions with other drivers of change (e.g. nutrient
loading, acid deposition, soil erosion).
One day meeting,
Wednesday 16th May,
UCL
Speakers from
Euro-limpacs & CLIME projects
Environment Agency
SEPA
Natural England
Water Industry
In this one-day meeting we aim to:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Review progress in modelling climate change in the UK;
Present the interim results of current EU-funded research on
climate change, especially from the CLIME and Euro-limpacs
projects;
Discuss the implications for the implementation in the UK of current
EU policies on water quality and aquatic biodiversity (principally the
Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive)
Identify gaps in our understanding and assess priorities for future
research
Invited speakers include: The Hadley Centre, Rick Battarbee (UCL), Glen George
(CEH/UCL), Chris Evans (CEH), Brian Moss (Liverpool), John Murphy (CEH), Paule
Whitehead (Reading), Ed Maltby (Liverpool), Rob Wilby (Environment Agency),
Natural England, SEPA, European Commission, Water Industry
For further information contact:
Heather Binney, ECRC, UCL, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT
Tel: 020 7679 0575 Email: [email protected]
Presentation and panel discussion
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
WP1.
Direct Impacts of
Climate Change
WP2.
Climatehydromorphology
interactions
WP3.
Climatenutrient
interactions
WP4.
Climateacidification
interactions
WP5.
Climate-toxic
substances
interactions
HOW WELL INFORMED ARE WE?
WP6.
Integrated
Catchment Modelling
and Analysis
WP7.
Indicators of
ecosystem health
WP8.
Reference
conditions &
restoration
strategies
WP9.
Tools for catchment
management
ADAPTATION MEASURES?
WP10.
Dissemination &
Training
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
Euro-limpacs – Integration workshops
We have identified 4 themes that summarise the project and its objectives:
1. What are the meteorological/climate effects on the physical and chemical
status of freshwater systems
2. What are the ecological consequences of changes in the physical and chemical
status of freshwater ecosystems caused by climate change and how can they be
detected
3. What can be done by adaptation and remediation measures to cope with the
physical, chemical and ecological changes expected?
4. What are the implications of climate change for policy and management of
freshwater ecosystems?
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE
What can we do about adaptation and remediation
to cope with the physical/chemical and ecological
changes?
•
What are the practical measures that can be take to mitigate or adapt to
future projected Climate impacts on different aquatic ecosystems (NB with
respect to different stressors, in different regions)? NB think also outside
the Eurolimpacs project
•
what implications do these responses have for further research?
•
Are there existing case studies in Euro-limpacs or elsewhere
•
Can we Identify new case studies for Euro-limpacs
•
Euro-limpacs position paper early 2008 summarising state of the art, Eurolimpacs activities, gaps in knowledge and proposing research agenda